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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

governor.wa.gov

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#241

Post by rocha »

hartator wrote: post #218
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

Current total deaths are 6,000 with China already saying the worst is behind them. Why the US would have 4M deaths?

Probably means 4M assuming that no containment measures are taken.

Like someone said on twitter, “In the end, it will be impossible to know if we overreacted or did too much, but it will be QUITE apparent if we under reacted or did too little.”

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#242

Post by na85 »

pbourke wrote: post #179
ncallaway wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several restaurants in downtown Seattle have already closed. More will probably come over the next few weeks. As I expect this to largely continue to be a problem through summer the tourism industry in downtown is going to be hit very hard. The economic side of this is going to hit like a ton-of-bricks. It's going to be very painful, and we should do everything we can as a society to take care of those that are hit h…

The Alaska cruise season will likely not happen this year. The Canadian government has banned cruise ships from Canadian ports until 1 July. Legally, the foreign-flagged ships of major cruise lines must call at a foreign port between calls at US ports. All Alaska cruises call at Vancouver on their way from Seattle to Alaska. https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/canada-suspends-cr...

Maybe they'll sail under the US flag?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#243

Post by pinot »

hartator wrote: post #218
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

Current total deaths are 6,000 with China already saying the worst is behind them. Why the US would have 4M deaths?

China nipped this before they spent much time in the exponential phase:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#g8

US is tracking highly with Italy, but 12 days behind.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#244

Post by blendo »

cavisne wrote: post #75
blendo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd suggest they put a couple of picnic tables out in the parking lot for take-out. Curious about other commercial operations that could satisfy the rule "... all gatherings under 50 participants are prohibited unless previously announced criteria for public health and social distancing are met"? Take-out biergarten? Silent disco?

Rules like this dont need to be enforced (or even enforceable) because by and large the community is onboard. Ie if Canlis, a Seattle institution ,was seen as looking for loopholes and risking lives it would be the end of their entire business.

I didn't mean to suggest anything nefarious. On the contrary, I'm curious as to what kinds of "fun" and "social" celebrations we can do these days while still limiting coronavirus risk.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#245

Post by 40four »

mondoshawan wrote: post #146
Taek wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients. Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU. All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people…

Sorry to be that person, but citation needed? Where is a reputible source for this information?

Nobody know where a reputable source is. It’s just a laundry list of all the ‘talking points’. I keep hearing people say this stuff, but nobody knows where it came from.

It is certainly not the message the CDC is putting out in the USA.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summ...

The Seattle Times ‘Fact sheet’ is also singing a different tune.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/facts-about...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#246

Post by ekianjo »

boznz wrote: post #88

My Daughter was working as a temp between jobs and the work has now been stopped, she had two second interviews planned in Sydney this week now both positions have been retracted and nobody hiring or interviewing, she has about 7 weeks of cash savings and 4 months lease on a rental. Oh and no unemployment benefit or subsidies as she is New Zealander working in Australia. Young People at the lowest risk from this viru…

> The UK's answer to the problem is starting to look a lot more sensible than total economic chaos being caused by all other methods.

You mean the answer that consists in maximizing the dead count?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#247

Post by Fiveplus »

brightsize wrote: post #235
Fiveplus wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is UK's answer to this problem?

"Herd immunity" or something along those lines, apparently. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22577132

Wow that twitter thread linked was a wild ride. They really are doing a huge experiment in the middle of a world-wide pandemic. I'll be really interested to see how it all works out.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#248

Post by remarkEon »

hartator wrote: post #218
topkai22 wrote: post #144

When talking about economic damage it is also worth thinking about what we are trying to avoid in the US- if SARS-Cov2 gets to 60% of the population, then at a 2% case fatality rate we are looking at 4 million excess deaths. Most importantly, that is a humanitarian tragedy that we must avoid. However, having numbers also let’s us put an economic value out there for what we are trying to save. A 1% reduction in the ca…

Current total deaths are 6,000 with China already saying the worst is behind them. Why the US would have 4M deaths?

China shut down their entire economy for about 6 weeks. That's what we're debating here, whether we should do that in the US.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#249

Post by ekianjo »

icelancer wrote: post #221
sb8244 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives and money are not the same thing. Hard stop. I understand your point, but I just disagree with the expected outcomes here. Realistically how much would it cost to bail out these businesses and provide a safety net to people? I imagine the numbers are less than we'd first think. It's a choice. It's not inevitable.

Death rate is highly correlated with unemployment. They are not NOT the same thing. https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/rising-unemployment-causes-...

Why do you expect long term unemployment here? Unless the virus crisis lasts for a year, in a few months things will be back to normal hopefully and you can expect the economic activity to take off again.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#250

Post by sb8244 »

abtinf wrote: post #224
sb8244 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives and money are not the same thing. Hard stop. I understand your point, but I just disagree with the expected outcomes here. Realistically how much would it cost to bail out these businesses and provide a safety net to people? I imagine the numbers are less than we'd first think. It's a choice. It's not inevitable.

Who will provide the safety net when the entire economy is shut down? Production precedes consumption, always.

Those are the questions we need to figure out as a country or even as a world. Realistically, the govt needs to provide that safety net for its citizens.

However, let's start with the decision that lives are more important than money.

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