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Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

bloomberg.com

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Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#241

Post by NicoJuicy »

airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

I was bearish yesterday, but looking at the raw data seems more reasonable ( spent a lot of time reading and analyzing).

The statistic influencers currently are China, South Korea and Iran.

Then it seems to help that people are more aware and numbers seem to be dropping. I'm short-term bearish, although it could change with an extreme outlier within the EU.

It also helps that I can see what a big corporation ( where I work) is doing and I don't see any panic. Rather creating awareness.

I'm also aware of the most vulnerable companies ( travel + flight) where a friend works and it seems to be okay, as in: "not as bad as the news seems to suggest", but nonetheless carefull.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#242

Post by indigo945 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #117
mullingitover wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the term for when the government owns all the industries?

Also, what is it when everyone owns them (in varying ownership percentages of course) via index ETFs?

Marx was wrong not about if, but about how the workers would take control of the means of production!

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#243

Post by RobertoG »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #168
learc83 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you managed to both completely avoid my point and bring up generational politics.

You don't have a point, you have an opinion. You don't provide any facts or resources that prove the money spent in a fiscal stimulus returns a greater rate than the interest on it. You don't address the fact that the debt has gone up 300% over the last 20 years while the GDP is up only an average of 2.5% a year. Printing your way out of debt is not a solution, ask Argentina. Eventually your investors will lose faith…

I think Argentina problems come from borrowing in dollars, not from "printing" his own currency.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#244

Post by shrimpx »

ptyyy wrote: post #22
pastor_elm wrote: post #8

>The Fed also said in the statement that the “fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong.” So why cut the rate? Doesn't make any sense.

Political optics. Current POTUS's claim to success rests, in part, on a high performing financial sector. If the market tanks or stagnates, he no longer has that as a talking point.

“The market being in the red is a hoax perpetrated by the Democrats...”

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#245

Post by whatshisface »

ptyyy wrote: post #22
pastor_elm wrote: post #8

>The Fed also said in the statement that the “fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong.” So why cut the rate? Doesn't make any sense.

Political optics. Current POTUS's claim to success rests, in part, on a high performing financial sector. If the market tanks or stagnates, he no longer has that as a talking point.

The Fed is not under the President's authority and is probably not filled with Trump fans. The system for better or worse is designed to resist political motivations. (For better because "political," for worse because "political" is the low-valence word for "democratic.")

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#246

Post by OCASM »

tssva wrote: post #194
airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

I see 3 things driving the market now. An overdue market correction, reasonable reaction to supply chain issues and an irrational reaction to the virus. A temporary boost to the market gives more time for the true long term impact to the supply chain to play out. It may turn out that the boost only gave a short respite but it may also turn out that it saved the market unneeded turmoil. A short term boost also gives p…

What's irrational about the reaction to the virus?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#247

Post by Seenso »

ISL wrote: post #93
airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. Source: Page 12, paragraph 2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

> The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days.

There are case reports of it being far longer than 14 days:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/c...

> A 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government said on Saturday, meaning the virus’ incubation period could be much longer than the presumed 14 days.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#248

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0 »

coliveira wrote: post #214
psadri wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not in an election year.

Trump will not let the recession occur, because he's so afraid of losing.

Maybe that is part of the problem. We imbue our leaders with a belief that their will alone is sufficient to stem the tide forgetting that they are only human.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#249

Post by kmonsen »

seirl wrote: post #206
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed's job is supposed to be to keep inflation stable. Inflation is as stable as it's ever been. If stock prices go down, that means nothing to inflation. Somehow, since Greenspan, the Fed's job evolved to include pumping up asset prices to benefit asset owners (the top 5% own 80% of assets).

Wrong. The Fed has a dual mandate, they have to keep inflation and unemployment stable. Recessions are bad for employment, it turns out.

It also has a third mandate, get republican presidents re-elected and this is where this boost comes in handy.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#250

Post by thfuran »

headmelted wrote: post #144
airstrike wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... > The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days) Edited my post to include that source

Which makes 24 days an extreme outlier

Median and range really says fairly little about the distribution.
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