What is the worst case? 15% of the worlds population dies ?
Nearer 2%.
Is It a Pandemic Yet?
241–250 of 289 posts
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#242Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
The most extreme consequences of infection include acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis, which may require ICU-type treatment. See [0] for World Health Organisation guidance on critical management of severe acute respiratory infection when novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection is suspected. The majority of patients don't experience such severe consequences. [0] https://www.who.int/publications-deta…
You mean specifically SARS, which is a syndrome not a name of the virus. The really really agent is immune pneumonitis, or cytokine storm related sepsis.
IANAD, but I'm pretty much exactly quoting the linked WHO material (dated 28 January 2020) relating to 2019-nCOV, which describes acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) as something that might need to be managed in an ICU, as per the original question.
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#244What is the worst case? 15% of the worlds population dies ?
Nearer 2%.
2% is the number of death when you have Intensive Care Unit beds to provide oxygen, fluids, anti viral drugs to serious case.
15% is the number of serious cases on average.
So once you have filled all your ICU, you cannot take any serious case anymore, so I would say the most apocalyptic case is that all hospitals are overwhelmed, and you cannot address any serious case, so 15% is still possible in the most horrific case. (But not the more likely if you quarantine everyone)
However in poor countries without any healthcare infrastructure we could have quite a number of serious case dying.
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#245Last week google had a promoted 'fact check' snippet for searches about covid-19 being released from a lab. Predictably, it was an article debunking the story as a crack-pot conspiracy theory. Today stories about covid-19 being released from a lab are front page at news.google.com.
There are two versions. It being genetically engineered is highly unlikely. However it being studied in the Wuhan lab and getting out through a screw up is possible. Not that it makes a huge difference at the end of the day.
The fact check seems quite wishy washy https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-government-laborator...
and here's the lab leak theorizing for what it's worth https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coro...
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
It can be a major pandemic and still almost everyone will survive it. If it kills 1% that would be huge, but 99% of you will still be here.
Killing off 1% of the US population would mean over 3 million dead, and it would be close to 80 million if it infects the whole world. In addition it appears that something like 20% of those infected suffer severe, crippling lung damage. That's not to mention all the economic damage, which in turn will have more adverse health consequences. We really should not be taking this lightly, even if a lot less people get in…
I said it would be huge, didn’t I? The other poster said it might not kill most people, my point is even massive disasters don’t come anywhere near killing most people.
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
Air temperature could possibly do it or at least contribute, as was the case with SARS in 2003.
It's 35C in Bangkok, 36C across Malaysia and 32C in Singapore. How much hotter do you think it would have to get to make that virus die out?
As far as I can tell the virus isn’t spreading like crazy in Bangkok, Malaysia, or Singapore. Singapore had it way worse in 2003, still the SARS virus withered came June.
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#248I read a lot about this virus lately, and it looks like the mortality rate depends a lot on the availability of intensive care. If that's the case, slowing down the diffusion of the infection could be really important in keeping down the total number of deaths.
Dumb question but what intensive care? Do people need to be on respirators? Need access to drugs only available at ICU? Just curious if any of the things done at an ICU to prevent death really need to be only at the ICU.
A doctor on youtube went over 3 cases and how they were handled, 2 older people and a younger one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0A0LyMru3I
Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?
#249Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is not correct. The virus is not airborne.
Carried in a sneeze or cough? What do we call it then?
Aerosolized. The difference is important because the aerosolized virus only survives in the bodily fluids expelled by the sneeze/cough, which gives it a much, much shorter range than if it was actually airborne, which would imply that the virus could survive long enough to spread without the need for a bodily fluid to host it.