241–250 of 671 posts
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It's not so easy to distinguish the drunken master from the drunk. They walk the same.
Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.
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> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?
He made billions of dollars in real estate and other industries, then when on to become POTUS. HOW CAN ONE MAN BE SO INCOMPETENT!?!
Obviously starting the Clinton Foundation with Epstein is where the true genius lies.
Key recession indicator is flashing red. Unlike the stock market, which is both backward- and forward-looking, the bond market is myopically forward-looking. When the yield between the 10-year and 2-year US treasury inverts, a recession is months away. This chart, showing the difference between the yield (or spread), shows recessions in grey: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/using-the-yield-spread-to-fo... Notice how…
10y/2y inverted also in 1998, but recession only came in 2001. so 3years later.... it can be long time until recession ;) note that the 10y/3m already inverted though. its more reliable....
I remember the dot-com crash of 2001 and seeing companies close so fast, they didn’t their employees a final paychecks; I remember one day, after the dot-com collapse a position I was qualified for got filled within three hours. As someone who has seen this before, things are looking ominous: The stock market drop of late 2018 reminded me of the stock market drop we had in 2000, about a year before everything fell ap…
I would actually argue that this recession is hugely policy based and we should worry that The Donald in charge of these systems will lead to more instability. It isn't tech being over valued that will bring the system down.
I'm not sure software will stop eating the world in a recession, the almost religious belief that more software will make your business better is something everyone has bought into. There might not be any other jobs however.
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>I guess if his base can't put 2 and 2 together that prices are rising due to his tariffs it almost makes sense. His base really can't put 2 and 2 together. You seem to think it's obvious that tariffs will cause prices to rise, but you seriously underestimate just how stupid these people are.
If your explanation requires assuming that both very powerful politicians and their supports, constituting tens of millions of people, are all incompetent, then perhaps you need to consider an explanation that doesn't require such assumptions.
If you really think the average voter is competent at economic matters, I have a bridge to sell you...
I remember the dot-com crash of 2001 and seeing companies close so fast, they didn’t their employees a final paychecks; I remember one day, after the dot-com collapse a position I was qualified for got filled within three hours. As someone who has seen this before, things are looking ominous: The stock market drop of late 2018 reminded me of the stock market drop we had in 2000, about a year before everything fell ap…
It's probably too early to roll this out, but for those who didn't live through 2008, I present Sequoia Capital's "RIP Good Times" deck from that period:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2m3d0s0n2q8a23z/RIP%20Good%20times...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?
It's not so easy to distinguish the drunken master from the drunk. They walk the same.
I remember the dot-com crash of 2001 and seeing companies close so fast, they didn’t their employees a final paychecks; I remember one day, after the dot-com collapse a position I was qualified for got filled within three hours. As someone who has seen this before, things are looking ominous: The stock market drop of late 2018 reminded me of the stock market drop we had in 2000, about a year before everything fell ap…
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I'm not sure whether to feel vindicated to see someone else echoing my own internal thoughts, or to feel nauseous about reliving those years. I was fortunate enough to have been at a company that was making money, but I still remember growing from 500 employees to 4000 or so in 2 years...and then dropping back down to 1500 two years later. We bought a small software company for the talent, and 3 months later was told…
500 employees to 1,500 in 4 years is still extremely solid growth. Markets have corrections, if your company is providing something of value I'm sure things will be okay.
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I agree. For the two recessions I’ve lived through, we didn’t arrive at them with everyone well aware it was going to happen. They snuck up and took the country by surprise. The tech bubble burst, and the real estate subprime bubble burst. We may go into a slump because everyone is expecting a splump to happen because it’s been 10 or so years of a bull run. But I don’t see a full-on recession without a large bubble b…
The question is, what is the bubble? I'd argue the entire stock market is the bubble right now, with boomers throwing everything they have into the market to get some of that free money before they retire. Once they start pulling back it's going to be a sad day. Right now US household "wealth" is sitting at >500% of GDP. That's not sustainable.