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‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

nytimes.com

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Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#241

Post by bla2 »

jadedhacker wrote: post #202
bla2 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bit easier but also more expensive than the other options mentioned: Pay for a NY times subscription.

I did that for a while until I became completely disillusioned with them. They're in the pocket of corporations and the White House (they actually suppress news if the WH doesn't like it). Find a more progressive outlet than them if you want to pay for media. They can certainly use the cash. EDIT: Here's a recent case of NYT suppressing newsworthy clips: https://theintercept.com/2018/06/20/administration-of-hate-t...…

I am pretty disillusioned with them too, and they do push an agenda in many areas (pro-military, anti-tech, etc). I loathe their opinion pages, they're a weird mix of bland and constantly pseudo-outraged. But I still like lots of stuff they create and a subscription isn't super expensive, so paying seems like the right thing to me personally. I'm just reading a newspaper, not looking for someone to marry. (I wouldn't want to marry someone who always agrees with me either, come to think of it.)

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#243

Post by Bluestrike2 »

briandear wrote: post #160
s2g wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you really not see the difference between the reasonable protectionism practiced by every country and the current trade war?

There is no such thing as “reasonable protectionism” unless you are dealing with dumping. Harley could hardly be accused of dumping. So why a 6% tariff in the first place? EU clothing tariffs already average 12% in many other categories it ranges from 4-36%. So is the EU protecting nearly every industry? Isn’t that the point of this “trade war” — the EU has been applying tariffs to almost everything for a long time.…

Huh? It's disingenuous to look at only one one side of the equation. The US imposes its own share of tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. Some of which (mainly for certain agricultural products) are high enough to all but eliminate imports of them altogether. Peanuts, raw tobacco, and sugar are examples of American industries that have benefited from aggressive protectionist policies for decades.

Existing trade agreements have recognized this; it's not something that the EU has unilaterally imposed in recent years. The average EU tariff on American goods is under 3 percent.[0] More importantly, the average tariff--for both the EU and the rest of the world--have been steadily declining.[1] That was the trend. The administration's recent trade policy upends that trend for no real purpose.

If the goal is to see tariffs lowered and barriers removed--one that I heartily support--you don't undertake a policy that will spur the opposite. You sit down at the negotiating table like adults and hammer out a trade deal. Which is a lot harder than it sounds, because every tariff of your own that you can use as leverage in the deal has its own domestic supporters. Many of whom are politically well-connected. It's not surprising then, that the administration chose to pursue a simpler (albeit inherently flawed) approach.

0. https://www.export.gov/article?id=European-union-Import-Tari...

1. http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/07/news/economy/trump-tariffs-t...

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#244

Post by jessaustin »

fullshark wrote: post #229
vowelless wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can people do to prepare for a recession in the next 6 years?

Without knowing anyone's individual situation it's hard to answer, but at the very least you should have 3-6 months expenses in a money market / savings account. You don't want to be in situation where you are forced to liquidate assets at below market prices.

But that's always the case, not only when the executive implements new tariff policy. Predicting a recession in the next decade is like predicting a sunrise tomorrow morning.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#245

Post by fjsolwmv »

mistermann wrote: post #212
TAForObvReasons wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The benefactors desired a conclusion, and the authors delivered it for them. They served their purpose. That "academic integrity" was not a purpose reflects the state of affairs in economics.

And people are using it today as "proof" to support their preferred flavor of an economic system. Anyone who's been even an armchair observer of economics for 20+ years should know well how silly these conversations can get. Just as one unimportant example: Bond vigilantes used to be a term you'd encounter regularly, when's the last time you heard it now?

Is that because the concept is bad, or because the conditions for it haven't been present in a while?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/bond-vigilantes-saddled-up-a...

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#246

Post by tjr225 »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #87
tjr225 wrote: post #33

As someone who (I'm guessing like a lot of others who post here) didn't really have any financial responsibilities during the .com bust and the real estate bust, it will be interesting to have a neck in the game this go around!

This, in a nutshell, is why the human condition is so tragic. This won't be "interesting", believe me. Watch what happens when the body of startups funded by global pools of capital (which are the underlying source of capital for VCs) sees the NPV of software startups vanish as lower expected investment returns smack up against higher risk-free rates. The current software economy is incredibly leveraged and intertwin…

I am worried and troubled for sure. I also can't help but feel like there has to be a better way.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#247

Post by jessaustin »

itgoon wrote: post #207
fokinsean wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same, I remember how much the last one stressed out my Dad. I was in high school and didn't fully appreciate the significance of what was going on. I'm a bit anxious anticipating the next one, but it's part of the game!

I've been through a few of these, and I disagree with everyone else. It's a game. At least, it's a lot healthier to think of it as a game. Life is full of ups and downs, some of them economic. Yes, this is just another one. Don't despair, things get better. Value your family and friends, and everything will be okay.

It may be that the game paradigm leads to more prosperity than the "woe is me no lighthearted talk allowed" paradigm.

It occurs to me that we still haven't done a damn thing about 2B2F... those banks with the public backstop seem far more dangerous than some temporary tariffs.

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#248

Post by jessaustin »

ericd wrote: post #126
toomuchtodo wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GE Capital’s deposits platform went to Goldman, the lending went to Synchrony. I don’t have the background on why it wasn’t acquired as a whole, but I’m sure the information exists online.

Oh, I see. Was never very impressed with Synchrony. They used to address all my mail to Null Null, a bit disconcerting for an organization who ostensibly has to program systems to keep track of how much money they need to give me back.

"We will make a list of our clients, and how much money each of them has given us to invest. We will keep this list in a safe place. If we have time, we will make a copy of the list, in case something happens to the first list."

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#249

Post by jessaustin »

18pfsmt wrote: post #238
cityhomesteader wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m impressed by your post’s combination of cynicism I'm impressed by your naivety. Where's the cynicism? I've worked on wall street/finance and I've read finance publications for decades. It's not cynicism, it's experience. > conspiracy-theory-type reasoning What's the conspiracy? > compounded by the agency fallacy. I'd advise you to give Logic 101 another try. Also look up ad hominem while at it.

>>Simply put, when the big players want there to be a recession, there will be a recession. >What's the conspiracy? According to your first comment, the "big players" are conspiring to cause recessions when they see fit.

A more charitable reading would have recessions as inevitable (which, in fact, they are) with only the timing of them controlled by "big players".

Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

#250

Post by adventured »

jakecrouch wrote: post #102

One explanation of the inflation of the public and private markets in the US is that the Chinese are in the middle of a massive debt bubble, anyone with cash there has nothing good to do with it, so they've been willing to invest in the US at almost any price.

That isn't a good explanation. China has extremely tight capital export controls in place, you can't easily get your money out of China to invest it into the US.

Beyond the annual $50,000 currency conversion limit they've put into place domestically, they've also made it an obnoxious and suspicious process to go through even if you attempt to convert the allowed $50k.

The US is far wealthier than China is anyway, and that's with 1/4 as many people. There is no need for Chinese capital to spur asset inflation in the US, the US has more than enough capital to do that on its own.

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