I see this as a good thing. Hopefully by helping other countries implement plans that engender educational and employment opportunities for women we can finally hit “peak child” and begin to slowly shrink our global population over time.
US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
241–250 of 434 posts
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not just a US issue. Fertility drops below replacement rate all across the world in urban settings with modern economies, from Germany to Japan to China, even trending in sub saharan Africa https://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/blog/Is-fertility-stalling-in-su...
That article is not particularly reassuring. Although the rate is declining in sub-saharan africa, it is very slow and seems to be stalling out. The example of Niger is particularly concerning: [...] the shrinking arable land beset by frequent drought, is supporting a rapidly expanding population. [...] expected to grow from some 16 million today to 55 million in 2050, reaching 140 million by the end of the century A…
It will mean a big problem for Europe as the level of outflow is likely set to accelerate over the coming decades. Who knows what the political consequences will be..
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#243Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every time agriculture-heavy states crack down on illegal immigration, crops rot on the vine because nobody else wants those jobs, even in periods of high unemployment. Here's the story from Georgia, there are identical ones from the Southwest as well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/crops-rot... . Your choice is not between illegal im…
Sometimes "nobody doing it" is the correct answer. It might not be economically viable for the USA to grow strawberries. We can import strawberries or find something else to eat. In the long-term, automation may help. We can also pay a tiny bit more for our strawberries. At retail level, the cost of farm labor is is tiny portion of the total cost. Crops don't rot on the vine if farmers know the labor situation in adv…
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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#244For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…
I think it's difficult to argue that we need more people when we are already straining ecologically. Fewer people is better, especially when we can automate away jobs that are unfilled.
However, this does expose a gaping hole in capitalism, that it can only deliver improvements to the masses under conditions of growth. With falling birthrates and immigration, we will need to find a more sustainable political economy.
Nonetheless, immigration is falling for dystopic reasons, not good ones (i.e. other countries are more attractive in a positive sense). It's falling because of authoritarianism, xenophobia, and a program of ethnic cleansing targeted at the most vulnerable people that is being performed by ICE.
EDIT: The last paragraph is justified because there are 325M people in the US and 11M undocumented people. There may be a marginal effect on jobs, but the bulk of the economy is made up of everyone else. We're talking about 3% of the population.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#245Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.
The reason is that the US doesn't provide support for families. Childcare, maternity leave, health care support, these are things that could make it possible for working parents to have more kids. The US is doing just the opposite.
Not true, you just need to be in poverty and keep the man out of the house and you get all of those things with welfare.
The people not having kids and not receiving support are the ones paying the taxes which support a system that does not benefit them.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every time agriculture-heavy states crack down on illegal immigration, crops rot on the vine because nobody else wants those jobs, even in periods of high unemployment. Here's the story from Georgia, there are identical ones from the Southwest as well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/crops-rot... . Your choice is not between illegal im…
Bullshit. If the pay is right, you will find plenty of people to pick produce. But in a world where people expect $15/hour for work that is leisurely in comparison (fast food), paying that much for hard labor ain’t gonna cut it.
> Bullshit.
I provided sources showing that this is, empirically, what happens, no matter what you would like to believe.
> If the pay is right, you will find plenty of people to pick produce.
Obviously! But once you do that, the produce costs so much that no one wants to buy it. That is the fundamental issue here.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.
The biggest counter argument I hear, regularly, is that the "tide" of illegal labor you speak of is NECESSARY. Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc. It's the classic who will do "X" dirty job argument.
> Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc.
1859: But who will pick cotton? Perform household chores?
We will either develop a technological solution or gasp the wages and benefits for picking strawberries will rise to such a point that it makes sense to pick that up as a career choice.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#248Earlier quoted context omitted.
Going from expensive area with good job market to slightly less expensive area with little to no job market. Rrright.
> Going from expensive area with good job market to slightly less expensive area with little to no job market. You forgot many options, such as slightly less expensive area with good job market. Or much less expensive area with reasonable job market. I'm not even sure I know of a place that's only slightly less expensive but has little to no job market.
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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#249For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…
Why is it that birth rates have gone down though? Many factors, mostly economic, which should be addressed instead of importing millions of people who will soon be replaced by automation anyways.
Based on the people I know, it's because they have student debt, they can't afford a house, they can't afford for one parent to quit their job and do full-time child care, and the price of day Care is prohibitive.
The only people who can afford kids are either extremely rich or extremely poor.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Chinese immigrated to the US at a similar time as the Irish and Italians. The more than 3 million Chinese living in the US today seem plenty well integrated and I don’t think China and America are particular close in terms of culture.
The Chinese immigrants were not (and still are not) particularly religious, and certainly didn't have a religion that promoted extremism and placed them at odds with the existing inhabitants. Other Asian immigrants in the US were also either not religious, or (like with Koreans and Filipinos) adopted the same religion as the dominant culture. The fundamental problem, as I see it, is religion.
> and certainly didn't have a religion that promoted extremism
Lets cut through the code words then and have a direct counterexample to what you're trying to say.
Nigerians are primarily Muslims. They are also highly educated and among the most entrepreneurial immigrants to the USA. And while there's a "Nigerian prince" joke every now and then, they really are doing relatively well in the USA. Like, "better than Asians" with regards to college education statistics.
https://www.chron.com/news/article/Data-show-Nigerians-the-m...
Nigerians are basically the perfect counterexample to the "Religion" (aka: Islam) problem that is so often brought up. High rates of college completion, high rates of business / entrepreneurs, high-rates of integration. Overall, clearly net-positive to the USA.
> Other Asian immigrants in the US were also either not religious, or (like with Koreans and Filipinos) adopted the same religion as the dominant culture.
What about Indians? Who are usually either Hindu or Muslim? Indians are also highly educated and start a large number of businesses.
I'm personally Catholic. I'd obviously prefer it if immigrants would come with the same Religion as me, but the statistics are in. Nigerians, Indians, and a whole host of other immigrants kind of do perfectly fine in America. There's no need for them to be Christian or otherwise "mainstream".
Indeed, bringing in immigrants on the basis of religion is severely anti-American IMO. America is certainly big enough to sustain Hindu, Muslims, and other religious groups. Especially if those people are coming in highly-skilled, highly educated, and overall are a benefit to our society.