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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

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Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#241

Post by erikpukinskis »

gthtjtkt wrote: post #236
erikpukinskis wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First off, these businesses typically don’t “rely on” those wages, the owner is just taking a $20k bonus because they can and they like money. Undocumented workers take the jobs because there is no financial incentive for an owner to risk breaking the law unless they are getting cash back. The worker is basically paying their employer to break the law.

So you're saying they pocket the difference rather than using reduced overhead to maintain competitive prices? Interesting hypothesis... I was under the impression that many farmers operate on thin margins these days.

Certainly there is a segment that are close to bankruptcy but most are profitable.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#242

Post by sharemywin »

gjem97 wrote: post #231
hyperion2010 wrote: post #107

I had a long talk with a guy getting his general contractor's license yesterday. He told me that down in San Diego they are continually short on construction workers, so much that one of his friends said that there is 10 years worth of construction that needs to be done and no one to do it. Wages at ~$45/hr, and probably rising, some projects paying perdiems for commutes from Orange County. Strange.

I always find it a bit strange when people talk about shortages of non-price-controlled goods and services. When you say that the industry is "short on construction workers", there's an implicit "who will work for what we used to pay them." It seems to me like it's someone who hires in that industry trying to entice more talent to come help lower the price again, rather than an accurate description of the state of th…

You can't just raise prices and expect to win jobs.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#243

Post by codekilla »

giobox wrote: post #202
southphillyman wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where can one go to learn these "blue collar" skills? As a recent home owner I'm learning first hand how valuable these skills are by way of my wallet. Seems like most people I meet who do these kinds of jobs were "born into it", and learned by helping a family member who was already in the industry. Are there IIT type schools which teach these kinds of things on a part time basis?

For a great many, youtube is surprisingly awesome. My normal approach to home DIY now is to watch as many youtube videos of the process I want to try as possible, then make a determination if it is something I still want professional help with or can try to do myself.

Agreed, I renovated basically my entire condo using this process, hiring out the jobs that looked unreasonable to try and do myself. I was able to do quite a bit though, youtube is awesome for this.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#244

Post by HeyLaughingBoy »

southphillyman wrote: post #189
ransom1538 wrote: post #108

>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at all)" Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not…

Where can one go to learn these "blue collar" skills? As a recent home owner I'm learning first hand how valuable these skills are by way of my wallet. Seems like most people I meet who do these kinds of jobs were "born into it", and learned by helping a family member who was already in the industry. Are there IIT type schools which teach these kinds of things on a part time basis?

Community colleges and stores like Lowe's or Home Depot often have classes like this, but honestly, with the web, it's easier and easier to teach yourself these days. I wouldn't bother paying for instruction unless I was aiming to become a professional.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#245

Post by 0x00000000 »

dionidium wrote: post #17

I work at a medium-sized software company. We've had similar problems with younger employees. Guys literally posting in company-wide Slack channels that they're "feeling a little sleepy this morning, gonna be in later." Can you even imagine somebody saying that to their boss in some black-and-white movie from the 1940s? "Hey, how about instead of coming in later you hit the bricks and never come back?" The culture ha…

Maybe I'm lucky but that sounds like a bad place to work. I can show up any day or time I want as long as I work the total required hours and don't miss meetings.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#246

Post by module0000 »

chrisbennet wrote: post #226
moduspol wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a case at all to be made for personal responsibility when such a large percentage don't even bother to show up? How can one possibly ever get out of poverty if s/he can't even make it to an interview?

They say "There are no bad dogs, just bad owners." I think the problems are cultural. (a) Two working parents or a single parent family may result in children "being raised by wolves" to some extent. These are good parents/people but child rearing is a time intensive business. (b) Lack of jobs for young people. In my neighborhood, a lot of lawn mowing jobs are done by services instead of the neighborhood kid. The "en…

That's a good list...a lot of it rings true, especially point B. The chances for me to work when I was young were everywhere. I did mow lawns, I raked leaves, painted houses, and every other odd job that a 13 year old would be allowed to do.

Now I imagine explaining to my friends or wife that I hired a 13 year old to paint our house. With 0/0 stars on google, angies list, etc. It's hard for young people to "break in" to something as mundane as yard work and painting.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#247

Post by antisthenes »

strictnein wrote: post #7
onion2k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

I imagine lots of this: "Lefty loosey, righty tighty... no no your other left"

"...and now your house is flooding at 3 GPM"

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#248

Post by throwawayjava »

sharemywin wrote: post #239
throwawayjava wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The explanation also doesn't fit the data. Wages have been surging the past few years, not just this year.

In June 2017 they were still talking about a wageless recovery: http://www.thehour.com/business/article/Wageless-U-S-recover...

Across the entire economy, not blue collar. If you want to compare apples to apples, the data is running right there is the article we are already discussing, no motivated googling necessary :)

Also, talk and data are different things.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#249

Post by crankylinuxuser »

stemc43 wrote: post #63
thanatropism wrote: post #29

This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore): > Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant, wages tend to rise. was marked dead. Why? Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news?

illegals dont have SSNs. EMployers have to run ssn verification before they hire you. These checks are instant and this will popup immediately. Can they still hire you - well maybe for janitorial -> manufacturing jobs I'd say highly unlikely.

That's easy enough.

You're right - you do need a valid name/SSN/birthdate. It doesn't have to be yours. And if a company wants to be disreputable, all they need to do is keep running them until they hit jackpot.

Because then they can claim that the other people were, uhhh, fraudulent. And this person passed their Everify. It's not like there's any proof that the Everify was run 10 times prior, to find a good name/ssn/DoB.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#250

Post by lostlogin »

danielvf wrote: post #9

I worked with small / medium manufacturers in the prosperous part of the Southeast. Hiring is brutal currently. Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of sho…

I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is sober, and not hungover what business is it of the employers what the employee does on their own time? The drugs that are readily detectable are mostly the ones that don’t matter too, while the ones that are more concerning (to me anyway) are either not tested for or are not detectable fairly fast. And alcohol is ok to abuse. Why?

It would be interesting to test white collar workers.

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