After the end of the startup era • Hacker News Board

Re: After the end of the startup era

#241

Post by leggomylibro » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 1:51 AM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #230

komali2 wrote: post #48

>IoT devices [are] hard to prototype, generally low-margin, expensive to bring to market, and very expensive to scale. Just ask Fitbit. Or Jawbone. Or Juicero. Or HTC. I feel like this is the public's idea of "iot," while I've learned after a year of working for an iot stack provider that the real "internet of things" explosion is found in places nobody looks except the procurement guys - the stadium lights, the refr…

IoT devices [are] hard to prototype Here in Shenzhen, I would say no. They are cheap as chips. I have multiple friends doing consumer IoT devices (lots of BLE) with single-dimensional backgrounds (often software) who have been able to iterate through multiple prototypes and produce concepts within months. The chief problems for IoT products IMHO are marketing and replicability (low security for initial investment). T…

I mean, even outside of Shenzhen, if you want bluetooth the NRF52832 has fantastic hardware layout/design documentation and a frickin' Cortex-M0+ processor for core logic and communicating with the BTLE stack. The ESP32 has wifi and bluetooth and has dealt with all that FCC crap (but uses a weird MCU core.) Etc, etc.

Living next door to a few factories probably reduces your iteration times from weeks to days, but IMHO - and maybe this is the 'H' part, I'm still learning - the time that you as an individual wind up spending on design and figuring out software issues are pretty sizable, even compared to a fortnight for a nice 2-4 layer PCB.

Either way, we are certainly living in a wonderful time for rapid prototyping. Dropping the 'IoT' tag, embedded systems are super super exciting in all kinds of areas; telecommunications are just one of those.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#242

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 2:42 AM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #162

rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

That might just be because you are getting older and value your time more. I used to try every new app, every new service. I used to run Linux on my desktop. Doing those things was fun and challenging, but took time. I have kids now. I value spending time with them over fiddling with the latest app or spending an hour tuning my kernel so I can run my window manager at max resolution. I use a Mac and it just does that…

[deleted]

Re: After the end of the startup era

#243

Post by maxwin » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 2:42 AM UTC

onewaystreet wrote: post #102

Weird that an article on the end of startups doesn't mention the likely next big area for startups: Genetics.

Genetics research is slow. It could be 10 , 20 or 50 years away.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#244

Post by bane » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 2:47 AM UTC

Why would this be the end of the startup era? That era has been going on for decades it's just taken different forms. It's maybe the end of the overvalued photo sharing mobile app company era (it can't come soon enough).

Even "old" startups like Palantir that claim valuations at $20 billion are privately being revalued down significantly [1].

We're simply moving into a different era and the very public, very flash, direct to consumer startup market appears to be well beyond saturated. The money will go back to where it's always gone, quieter B2B type companies that build boring technology that solves less glamorous, but more important, problems.

1 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-17/palantir-...

Re: After the end of the startup era

#245

Post by pier25 » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 3:06 AM UTC

rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

I agree with you, I just install the basics these days when I get a new phone.

Objectively speaking there are numbers to prove we are not in the minority.

https://www.recode.net/2016/9/16/12933780/average-app-downlo...

Quick facts from that article:

- 50% of users download zero apps per month

- 13% of users account for more than 50% of the downloads

Re: After the end of the startup era

#246

Post by pier25 » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 3:09 AM UTC

adventurer wrote: post #111

rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

I've almost given up on the Play Store. It's overblown with all sorts of useless garbage. Want an alarm clock app? There are hundreds, if not thousands. I couldn't even find what I was looking for. Paid apps., Ads, in-app. purchases. It's an alarm clock for heaven's sake.

TBH I'm fine with Google's Clock app.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#247

Post by jaxn » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 3:11 AM UTC

edoceo wrote: post #213

hkmurakami wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The journalist reveals his or her ignorance by not considering Gusto or Flexport to be well positioned, imo.

Yeah, Gusto is a big win IMO. Payroll stuff sucks, especially for early stage businesses. I've used all the services over the past 15 years, my current company is using Gusto, still sucks, but sucks the least, best price, best service. And 1000s of small businesses trust Gusto to process millions of dollars of their most sacred money each month. Underrated.

Zenpayroll was great! Gusto sucks. And the change took place right around the time of the name change.

Now, both Gusto and Zenefits are trying to play the same game and both are basically parasitic companies feeding off lock-in and transaction fees.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#248

Post by rifung » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 3:34 AM UTC

noddy1 wrote: post #178

The cryptocurrency space has brought multiple unicorns - they just mostly don't come from silicon valley and don't follow the typical VC funding model. Bitcoin Ethereum Ripple Bitcoincash Litecoin Dash NEM NEO Monero Iota

I admit I don't know too much about cryptocurrencies but how are those unicorns? Aren't those all currencies and not companies?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#249

Post by adrianratnapala » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 3:42 AM UTC

api wrote: post #110

rdtsc wrote: post #42

I look at it from another end - I feel there is a sort of an app fatigue. Maybe it is jut me. I used to be excited about Uber-like things, note taking apps, DropBox, coupon sites, review sites. Installed some of them, used them, then kind of stopped. Someone at work would say "you should try this new thing, totally cool" and I'd be inclined to do it, but now would pass it probably. Extrapolating scientifically from t…

Mobile devices are very constrained. The OSes are locked down, the screens are small, high CPU apps are out, and input is slow and cumbersome. After trying a lot of apps I have found that a smart phone has only a few functions: 1. Talking and texting. 2. Taking pictures and video. 3. Maps and directions. 4. Music, movies, ebooks. 5. Brief interactions with services like Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, Los Angeles metro, etc. 6.…

I suspect there is money to be made selling a "just a phone". That pretends to do only your list above and heavily optimised the the usability an reliability of that subset. Any user-visible changes to those apps would be done only very conservatively.

It would be a lie though. Since it really would be a Turing complete phone, with lots of programs on it. That was true even of the old Symbian phones, and items from 3-6 go well beyond what they did.

Nonetheless, I think there is benefit to be gained by trading flexibility for reliability. One business difficulty/opportunity is how do you pick out services like Uber, AirBVnB etc. I suspect the solution is profitable, but user hostile: lock them into a vendor when they buy their phone.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#250

Post by contingencies » Mon, Oct 23, 2017, 3:57 AM UTC

spiffytech wrote: post #240

contingencies wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IoT devices [are] hard to prototype Here in Shenzhen, I would say no. They are cheap as chips. I have multiple friends doing consumer IoT devices (lots of BLE) with single-dimensional backgrounds (often software) who have been able to iterate through multiple prototypes and produce concepts within months. The chief problems for IoT products IMHO are marketing and replicability (low security for initial investment). T…

How does a software person get that far with hardware that fast?

It's really not that hard. A bit of electronics comprehension is the only requirement, and there are many helpful people about and hackerspaces for those who are new. For example this Wednesday my favourite hackerspace https://lab0x0.com/ is offering a free introductory course in English for people totally new to arduino. There are tonnes of books and resources online, and a friendly 24x7 WeChat group for live help. A shopping trip to buy sensors and bits in town here can be completed in half a day and under $100 (including soldering equipment), two days of hacking and anyone motivated will be on top of the basics.