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The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

nytimes.com

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Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#241

Post by xbmcuser »

edblarney wrote: post #211
xbmcuser wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top 15 economies in the world are 75% of the world economy. Most are in the West. The growth of the other 25% is not going to help much if these 15 combined do not grow more than the efficiency gains from automation.

"The top 15 economies in the world are 75% of the world economy. Most are in the West. The growth of the other 25% is not going to help much if these 15 combined do not grow more than the efficiency gains from automation." But they are not most of the population. We're talking about employment here. 5 billion people 'lives improving dramatically' vs. 2 billion people 'lives improving slowly' is a good equation. That…

You are combining 2 seperate issues automation is going to help in many ways. But there are 2 main kinds of resoure that people use to earn income 1.money 2.labour(mental or physical) More than 99% of the people earn income with the latter so automation will take away the only source of income for most of the world's population. I am personally pro automation as it will solve many of the problems humanity faces today but at the same time see that the way the current capilistic economies work automation is also going to cause huge problems for many countries and the world should be preparing for it.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#242

Post by tim333 »

jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

> the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally come to a grinding halt

Nah. The mother of all tech progressions, AI, is just kicking in.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#243

Post by Nomentatus »

braveo wrote: post #240
GauntletWizard wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been promoting this as the real solution to unemployment - An explosion of incredibly custom and niche art of various forms. We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities. Not simply personalities like PewDiePie and Markiplier, who are big enough that they're more and more traditional media, even if they came from simpler roots - But the shows that have…

> We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities. That's a non-sequitur, you may as well say we're seeing this with the explosiong of freelancers and personal businesses. Because that's really what those youtube personalities are, but that doesn't really address the issue of the older folks who have lost their jobs.

Because we're talking about patronage systems here, profit isn't strictly necessary - you just have to be able to attract patrons; and patrons have to be especially valued by society (gain status) for sponsoring artists with even small followings. (Although government patronage might have to be part of the transition to such a scheme.) Then more older folk artists could be included, but I think this will do more to address future unemployment than present unemployment. I'd settle for that, it seems an ambitious at that.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#244

Post by Can_Not »

clock_tower wrote: post #26
torpfactory wrote: post #12

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

> Still, even warlordism has potential to be less bad than Communism (more room for ambition, better management of capital) or Fascism (you can be a minority and not die)

Warlordism sounds much worse than communism and fascism. Any culture that is sufficiently advanced to not be chaos and wars for the lords under walordism, would be much better without the warlords. Advanced societies with abundant resources and abundant capital do not need gatekeeping hoarders playing charity Olympics.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#245

Post by jganetsk »

m3ta wrote: post #234
jganetsk wrote: post #161

This is exactly wrong. Automation happened already, 200 years ago. It upended society. It was called the Industrial Revolution. Things changed dramatically, and nothing remotely of that scale is occurring now. We are suffering today not because of technological progress, but rather the contrary: the rapid technological progress of the 20th century that brought tremendous economic prosperity to humanity has finally co…

I don't understand how HN so easily handwaves away these enormous problems with "basic income". What do you do when the currency becomes completely worthless?

You will have to explain why you think currency would become worthless. That would be a monetary problem, not a fiscal one. Basic income is financed with debt and taxes, and monetary policy remains a separate concern.

We have already done things like basic income in the USA:

- Economic Stimulus Act of 2008

- Earned Income Tax Credit

Please provide some sort of argumentation or data.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#246

Post by [deleted] »

forgetsusername wrote: post #183
sqldba wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you! Finally someone who gets it. IMHO these articles are fake news, journalists love beating the Automation is killing jobs drum. IT certainly is changing and outsourcing is swings and roundabouts. But there's more work than ever.

> IMHO these articles are fake news Oh god, stop with this in every article. This isn't "fake"; it isn't even "news". News is either fake or not. A researched opinion piece isn't "fake" because you disagree with the conclusions. It might be wrong , but it isn't "fake".

[deleted]

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#247

Post by dwaltrip »

pdog wrote: post #239
dwaltrip wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is whether a silicon brain can acquire the capabilities of a human brain without picking up sentience along the way. In order to perform at or above human level (in a general fashion), the robot will need a firm, comprehensive understanding of the world. Won't this unavoidably involve an understanding of the self as well?

What self is there to understand? Does a computer chip know what it's processing?

The awareness of all sensory or data input, internal processes, as well as the system's dynamic conceptual models and their change over time. This includes an awareness of the system's conceptual model of itself.

I don't think any chips today have awareness. But it seems to me that you couldn't have general, adaptable intelligence without it.

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