Earlier quoted context omitted.
People usually admit guilt, and I don't think I have anything to do with those models, as some of those are older than me. Of course they were flawed. Models are always imperfect, but the important things is, are they useful? Well. Ultimately, we shall see the usefulness of these climate models, and those old models were useful to show some the extremes, huge swings, big effects. Solar cycles, big non-sea ice melts (…
There is so much in your reply, I am gratified! I can't possibly reply adequately, at least on this touchscreen phone. A few things: - agree suncycles/sunspots follow a general pattern, but by no means precise nor energy predictable. - I suspected static because of some of your conclusions, for example that earth as a closed system. It's not! Earth is slowly growing due to dust/meteor accretions, our orbit and spin a…
Because we actually do know. There's solar magnetohydrodynamics and simple measurements, and measurements of other stars' energy output. And stars are pretty well behaved.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_constant
The number of sunspots in the past have also been reconstructed, seems crazy, but it's calculable from Carbon-14 dating. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#/media/File:Sunspo... )
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Solar_cycle&oldid... see the "ACRIM gap" problem, which is about 0.045% difference ( http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/05/acrim-... ) in estimating the long term trend in solar energy output.
Oh, well, of course Earth is not a closed system, since the Sun is constantly feeding us with energy, but from a simple modeling point of view those are constants. From a CO2 aspect it's closed. (As CO2 does not leave to space, it's too heavy for that.) Just as the mass of Earth, length of a day, and year, and so on are pretty well understood, the variations in orbital position (the already mentioned Sun-Earth cycles).
A really bad and big volcano throwing ash in the air is a single event, we can model those too. And those short term ("The screamer is legitimately afraid" - yes, that complicates human matters a bit. Everyone is a stakeholder, yet with slightly different preferences, fears and views.
Yes, indeed, carbon quota/tax/etc is the right incentive to make the right decisions. If we'd provide cheap loans to help the transformation, we would be borrowing against our own future, and we can decide to pay those back in a 100 years, so it's not like we lack the resources and capacity to deal with major producers (power plants, electricity, 30% https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis... ).