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Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

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Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#231

Post by roenxi »

afavour wrote: post #229
roenxi wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fella has read the article, has an argument and some stats. What more do you want from a comment? He isn't running a study. Besides, the point is a good one. There are a lot of professions. If we glance at the underlying study [0] Figure 1 suggests that we'd probably expect to see an outlier or two in that mess just through chance, we're expecting a few p [0] https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj-2024-082194

> Fella has read the article Then not closely enough? The study adjusts for age, which is the core of OP’s criticism.

If we read OP's comment closely, it appears to be technically correct. I can imagine someone not upvoting it because it seems to be generic, but there isn't anything wrong or low effort about with it. And I don't see where the stats came from if he hasn't read the article.

Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#232

Post by HlessClaudesman »

cortic wrote: post #30

Taxi Drivers: The mean age at death is approximately 67.8 years. General Population: in the same dataset, life expectancy averaged 74 years. The average age at which patients are typically diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease is 79. People in these jobs don't live long enough on average to get diagnosed, at the same rate. The same effect will happen in any job that lowers your life expectancy.

Unsurvivorship bias.

Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#233

Post by nylonstrung »

jstummbillig wrote: post #218
roenxi wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fella has read the article, has an argument and some stats. What more do you want from a comment? He isn't running a study. Besides, the point is a good one. There are a lot of professions. If we glance at the underlying study [0] Figure 1 suggests that we'd probably expect to see an outlier or two in that mess just through chance, we're expecting a few p [0] https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj-2024-082194

The comment insinuates that the study did not control for age. The study controlled for age. It's not terrible to not make a good point, but it's not a good point. The not good points should not be ranked highly.

It's getting hard to find any study posted without a kneejerk "correlation does not equal causation" take as if that's not something researchers have to control for in order to even conduct the study in the first place, let alone publish

Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#234

Post by FrustratedMonky »

afavour wrote: post #229
roenxi wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fella has read the article, has an argument and some stats. What more do you want from a comment? He isn't running a study. Besides, the point is a good one. There are a lot of professions. If we glance at the underlying study [0] Figure 1 suggests that we'd probably expect to see an outlier or two in that mess just through chance, we're expecting a few p [0] https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj-2024-082194

> Fella has read the article Then not closely enough? The study adjusts for age, which is the core of OP’s criticism.

"study adjusts for age"

maybe it would help this thread to have someone explain exactly how they control for age, if everyone in the range they want to study, is already dead.

What is the actual process to control for age? This comes up a lot, and the only response is "oh, well, we controlled for that", well exactly how?

Seriously, I'm curious.

//lot of downvotes, not a lot of anybody actually able to explain it.

From Article, the age question does seem sketchy.

"Although proportional mortality analyses do not provide information about the population at risk, with careful selection of controls and risk adjustment for factors that may affect competing risks (eg, age, sex, and social class), these values can still serve as a useful indicator of variations in disease frequency across different occupations.16 17"

Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#236

Post by PaulRobinson »

inglor_cz wrote: post #72
genxy wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who would pass The Knowledge test might already develop dementia at a much lower rate.

Plausible, but then you'd expect to find the same effect in other people who passed similarly demanding tests once. For example in people who studied something geometry-heavy. Also, The Knowledge Test is, IIRC, passed only once and then you do not have to retake it for the rest of your career. If a test passed in your 20s or 30s predicted accurately a much lower incidence of Alzheimer's in your 60s, that would be a r…

The Test is repeated every day you get in the cab.

If you get into a black cab in London and ask to be taken to any location, anywhere within 6 miles of Charing Cross, that driver will know immediately the right route to take without satnav. To get to that point they need to know 25,000 streets and many, many landmarks - statues, museums, galleries, restaurants, hotels, and so on.

I used to regularly drink with a cabbie in London, and he said that every time somebody got in the back his heart rate would rise, as he'd realise he's "on" and about to have to work out where to head from scratch. Within 30 seconds he'd have every step of the way worked out, down to which lanes at which intersections, no matter where in London he was or where he was going.

That's the thing that's likely going to reduce Alzheimer's.

Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#238

Post by stymaar »

orcasushi wrote: post #224
stymaar wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There weren't a lot of taxis outside of major cities What? In my country at least (France), taxis have been a thing even in the countryside for as long as cars existed (or rather, as long as the telephone has). And I'd be very surprised if that wasn't also the case in most of Western Europe. In fact it's a much easier job when it comes to routing and knowing your passengers' destinations than doing it in a metropol…

I guess countryside France is still only 2 hours from Paris or Marseille, while countryside USA is maybe 8 hours or more from a metropolitan area. Not to mention that the population in this usa countryside is already way lower then any population density in the whole of France. Operating a taxi corp there would simply be not viable on a financial term.

> I guess countryside France is still only 2 hours from Paris or Marseille

Not at all, it's more like 6 hours if you're in a somewhat remote place, but most taxi trips are way smaller than that even in rural area anyway.

> Not to mention that the population in this usa countryside is already way lower then any population density in the whole of France.

I don't think it matters, as there are plenty of rural places in the US that still have a higher density than where I live.

> Operating a taxi corp there would simply be not viable on a financial term.

Probably not a taxi “corp”, but here taxis have always been independent businesses with one or two cabs an providing taxi service on an area of a few hundred of square kilometers (a radius of 50km or so around the "office" of the taxi driver). And a large fraction of the trips are not on demand, but upon reservation several days in advance (you know you'll need to go to a medical appointment to the city next month, or you need a ride to the train station later this week).

Re: Taxi drivers rarely die of Alzheimer's

#240

Post by jappgar »

stymaar wrote: post #163
cortic wrote: post #30

Taxi Drivers: The mean age at death is approximately 67.8 years. General Population: in the same dataset, life expectancy averaged 74 years. The average age at which patients are typically diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease is 79. People in these jobs don't live long enough on average to get diagnosed, at the same rate. The same effect will happen in any job that lowers your life expectancy.

It pains me to see such a low-effort contrarian comment at the top: as stated in TFA taxi drivers are below other profession when controlling for age, and there are multiple professions with lower life expectancy that still have significantly higher Alzheimer rate than taxi drivers.

If the "study" is interesting at all, it's because of the implication that driving a taxi somehow wards off Alzheimers... but at the cost of killing you before you get it.
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