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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#231

Post by wil421 »

ethbr1 wrote: post #145
alephnerd wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't name a single thing running on Oracle Cloud CrowdStrike and Uber > Hetzner I don't know of any upper market EMEA customers on Hetzner. I've met Scaleway, OVHCloud, and even STACKIT users but never Hetzner.

I think the market for Oracle Cloud is the same for early GCP: companies with large enough needs and strong enough engineering teams that they can leverage "X runs on Oracle Cloud" into deep discounts. And then cover the gaps with engineering.

A company I worked at knowingly bought very sub-par oracle products just to get discounts on the Oracle ERP and DB stuff.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#232

Post by foobiekr »

solatic wrote: post #64
hobonation wrote: post #4

Is it me or do none of the AI companies have a "moat" in the Ben Grahmm sense. I use their services, but I frankly don't care who provides it. I'll chase the chepest/best and have no issue switching from one to another. The only moat I can see is Microsoft providing its services to companies in its Azure system. Nervous IT departments probably like that it's not leaving their control if Bob in the SAP team spins up s…

AWS and Google at least own their own hardware (Trainium and TPUs, respectively). It's a moat in the sense that designing, building, and deploying your own chips at scale is quite a feat and not easily replicated. The vertical integration will allow them to continue to be profitable once the models get good enough and competitors' prices race to the bottom. Google has Gemini; AWS may not deploy its own models (yet?),…

Their "own" as in built by Marvell and Broadcom. Especially Trainium but also TPU4.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#233

Post by pid-1 »

marojejian wrote: post #207
pid-1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

Why should a retail investor never buy derivatives? spreads?

Retail investors do not have access to systems that calculate risk, margins, pnl, etc... and generally also don't have the necessary knowledge and market data to price such instruments correctly.

Most ppl are better off KISSing and lowering risk by selling equity for fixed income.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#234

Post by u1hcw9nx »

Oracle LFCF (ttm): -24.54B

Levered free cash flow (LFCF) is the cash remaining after a company has paid its debts and operational costs. Oracle has 167.43B debt. $43 billion in last fiscal year.

Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon will be fine if AI bubble bursts. Oracle will be among first to go down in flames after OpenAI.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#235

Post by foobiekr »

anon291 wrote: post #21
hobonation wrote: post #4

Is it me or do none of the AI companies have a "moat" in the Ben Grahmm sense. I use their services, but I frankly don't care who provides it. I'll chase the chepest/best and have no issue switching from one to another. The only moat I can see is Microsoft providing its services to companies in its Azure system. Nervous IT departments probably like that it's not leaving their control if Bob in the SAP team spins up s…

Nvidia has a moat. Hardware is hard. No one really competes with them for general compute

Nvidia's moat is the IBM, Microsoft moat:

I am about to spend $20M, if I buy anything other than Nvidia, and things go wrong, I am going to get blamed, and if things go right I will get no credit. This is why AMD is making no progress outside of very narrow cases and supercomputing.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#236

Post by foobiekr »

dsl wrote: post #35
anon291 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvidia has a moat. Hardware is hard. No one really competes with them for general compute

General compute is also the worst solution to the problem. Nvidia's entire business is dependent on Google not being able to make TPUs fast enough.

Google would have to start selling them (the real ones, complete with interconnect) to third parties. If google does that, though, Nvidia is done.

Unlike AMD, Google can actually ship software. AMD has never shipped good software other than drivers (maybe) in the entire history of the company, including both ATi's history and true AMD. They have always relied on Intel to provide the software.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#237

Post by KerrAvon »

lelanthran wrote: post #124
SirFatty wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah.. https://ai-2027.com/

> yeah.. https://ai-2027.com/ That site is too funny :-) > [mid-2026] But China is falling behind on AI algorithms due to their weaker models.

Wow. That has aged hilariously poorly indeed. OMG.

> But China is falling behind on AI algorithms due to their weaker models

They wrote this shit in April 2025. And they put their names on it. Beyond hubris.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#239

Post by simoncion »

kazinator wrote: post #205
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

It would be great if they open sourced the proprietary bits in the VirtualBox suite before that.

Other than having a nice management UI, what does Virtualbox do that qemu doesn't these days?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#240

Post by KerrAvon »

dragonwriter wrote: post #161
Ancalagon wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And none of the major model makers (not counting SpaceX) have IPO'd yet

Pretty sure Google fits any definition of major model maker that SpaceX does, and had their IPO long before SpaceX. Meta and Microsoft both are also significant makers of GenAI models that are public, though neither has a big tentpole LLM line that they sell access.to commercially like OpenAI, Anthropic. Google, SpaceX, which I infer might be what you mean by major model maker.

Meta had Llama, which set a lot of things on fire in a good way, and then disappeared from the scene as tech advanced.

What does Microsoft have?

Not sure SpaceX counts. Nobody sane uses Grok. It's untrustable due to reality-distorting political bias training, and it's strongly associated with CSAM production. Not what you want in a reliable corporate utility.

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