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As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

seattletimes.com

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Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#231

Post by Schiendelman »

adam_arthur wrote: post #134
IG_Semmelweiss wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the financial "instruments" ? The main claims from the article seem worrysome, IN particular, the 37% vacancy rate, as well as multiple buildings underwater[3], etc. Now, lets dissect the claims that this is part of some cycle, and not the result of new city hall management. The reality is that with Jumpstart, and with the vacancy rate, enterprises are not renting. But, the owner is stuck with the asset in w…

An increase in vacancies across the board is reduction in demand, plain and simple. That the new equilibrium price to re-tenant all the buildings is lower is evidence of that. But the OP is correct that when enough of the building owners default on their debt, the building will be foreclosed, sold for less and asking rents will go down towards the new equilibrium price. Thus occupancy is likely to improve again down…

Honestly, I think is a bullish situation for Seattle.

With vacancy this high we're likely a more attractive place to start a small company, as recollateralization and foreclosure put square footage on the market at competitive prices.

For those who compare to Bellevue - in 2025 we grew population at 0.8% to Bellevue's 0.2%. You'd never know that from the vacancy reporting.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#232

Post by adam_arthur »

Schiendelman wrote: post #231
adam_arthur wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An increase in vacancies across the board is reduction in demand, plain and simple. That the new equilibrium price to re-tenant all the buildings is lower is evidence of that. But the OP is correct that when enough of the building owners default on their debt, the building will be foreclosed, sold for less and asking rents will go down towards the new equilibrium price. Thus occupancy is likely to improve again down…

Honestly, I think is a bullish situation for Seattle. With vacancy this high we're likely a more attractive place to start a small company, as recollateralization and foreclosure put square footage on the market at competitive prices. For those who compare to Bellevue - in 2025 we grew population at 0.8% to Bellevue's 0.2%. You'd never know that from the vacancy reporting.

Drop in rents is drop in demand, plain and simple.

Fewer businesses want to invest and move into Seattle at the price it used to cost.

It's true that if occupancy is poor, then a recovery in occupancy will bring more activity.

It's bullish in the same way that cheaper housing due to increased crime and decline in quality of life draws in new residents.

Again, office is doing poorly nationally, but it does seem particularly worse in Seattle than other hubs.

If I'm not mistaken, Seattle has the worst office vacancy in the country by a decent margin, aka the most demand destruction.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#233

Post by Schiendelman »

adam_arthur wrote: post #232
Schiendelman wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I think is a bullish situation for Seattle. With vacancy this high we're likely a more attractive place to start a small company, as recollateralization and foreclosure put square footage on the market at competitive prices. For those who compare to Bellevue - in 2025 we grew population at 0.8% to Bellevue's 0.2%. You'd never know that from the vacancy reporting.

Drop in rents is drop in demand, plain and simple. Fewer businesses want to invest and move into Seattle at the price it used to cost. It's true that if occupancy is poor, then a recovery in occupancy will bring more activity. It's bullish in the same way that cheaper housing due to increased crime and decline in quality of life draws in new residents. Again, office is doing poorly nationally, but it does seem partic…

If you look back at my original comment, you'll note I mentioned that sublets at appropriate pricing are filling quickly. Occupancy isn't appropriate for current demand. Occupancy is depressed by owners avoiding recollateralization.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#234

Post by philwelch »

aardvarkr wrote: post #194
philwelch wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you’re a single-issue abortion voter, yes the US democrats tend to propose fetal viability (22 weeks or so) as the limit No, the standard Democrat policy is to allow abortion on demand at any point prior to birth—40 weeks or so.

Prove it

Democrats opposed the Partial-Birth Abortion Act of 2003, and multiple blue states allow abortion at any point prior to birth.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#235

Post by philwelch »

0x1d7 wrote: post #192
philwelch wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you’re a single-issue abortion voter, yes the US democrats tend to propose fetal viability (22 weeks or so) as the limit No, the standard Democrat policy is to allow abortion on demand at any point prior to birth—40 weeks or so.

It’s fortunate we’re on HN to easily identify this comment as sarcasm, but can you imagine being so ignorant as to believe this? What kind of brainwashing is required to think one could get an “abortion on demand” up to birth? Truly such a belief could only come from the lowest IQ amongst humanity.

That's the law in Colorado, DC, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Vermont, all of which are blue states.

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#236

Post by [deleted] »

brookst wrote: post #217
philwelch wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you’re a single-issue abortion voter, yes the US democrats tend to propose fetal viability (22 weeks or so) as the limit No, the standard Democrat policy is to allow abortion on demand at any point prior to birth—40 weeks or so.

This is false. Not sure if propaganda or ignorance of infowar, or lying for the fun of it, but 100% false.

[deleted]

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#237

Post by opo »

Schiendelman wrote: post #230
opo wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One big limitation is RCW 84.52.050 (Limitation of levies) which I think implements the 1% constitutional max allowed levy. I read somewhere that Seattle is at a levy of about 9.4, so that would be a hard limit right there.

That's a limit on total revenue, not percentage.

The 1% limit is a limit on the level of the property tax. If property tax values somehow fell by 50%, in theory, the property tax rate would double to ensure city operations remain funded. However, Seattle is almost at the statutory limit right now so there isn't much room to increase the rate - I this scenario the city would hit the 1% limit and be forced to get the money somewhere else or cut its budget instead. As I initially wrote:

>...If total citywide property value drops by 50%, the tax rate would hit its legal maximum ceiling, and the city would have to make up the money somewhere else or cut spending.

And the city wouldn't even get all of the increase it is allowed as there are other tax districts who would also want a higher rate. The tax increase that would be allowed would be prorated with the other tax districts.

(The 1% revenue growth cap you referred to earlier is a different statute and a different issue.)

Re: As downtown Seattle offices empty, city facing years of 'zombie' towers

#238

Post by adam_arthur »

Schiendelman wrote: post #233
adam_arthur wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drop in rents is drop in demand, plain and simple. Fewer businesses want to invest and move into Seattle at the price it used to cost. It's true that if occupancy is poor, then a recovery in occupancy will bring more activity. It's bullish in the same way that cheaper housing due to increased crime and decline in quality of life draws in new residents. Again, office is doing poorly nationally, but it does seem partic…

If you look back at my original comment, you'll note I mentioned that sublets at appropriate pricing are filling quickly. Occupancy isn't appropriate for current demand. Occupancy is depressed by owners avoiding recollateralization.

You seem to be missing that if prices are lower, demand is lower. Price is a function of demand.

If rents go from 10000/month at 100% occupancy to 5000/month at 100% occupancy, demand has been materially reduced.

That occupancy will recover does not support your point in the way you seem to think it does.

It's a natural market function that a drop in demand will lead to a drop in prices, and eventually, a commensurate increase in consumption (at lower prices)

This happens everywhere, and out of everywhere Seattle is doing the worst.

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