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Please stop the AI confidence theater

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Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#231

Post by esseph »

AaronAPU wrote: post #38
algoth1 wrote: post #14

As someone who has worked closely to the marketing space, there’s a saying that goes something like: ‘then the marketers found about it and ruin everything’. Quick example: when amazon launched kindle self publishing, there was a golden age where wannabe writers could self-publish their books, and let the market dictate what survived and became successful. Eventually, some people got good money out of it. Then market…

I’ve long considered marketing to be one of the purest forms of evil in existence. It truly does envelop and destroy everything good.

100% agree. It is the source of so much waste and so many ills.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#232

Post by therealdrag0 »

slopinthebag wrote: post #141
adam_arthur wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is clearly a force multiplier, both negative and positive. The truth is there are prolific developers like Antirez who have built quality new projects at an incredible pace (Dwarfstar 4, Redis features). But as unpopular as it is to say it, in the working world ~80% of developers pre-AI mostly just attended meetings, did a little busywork and committed small patches here and there. Probably around 20% really moved…

Doesn’t it seem a bit odd that such a prolific developer has only managed to produce a PR for a new Redis type, and a olama fork, despite having a 100x productivity booster machine for the last 8 months?

False dichotomy much? The tools can be force multiplying without being “100x productivity boosting,” which I’ve never once heard claimed except from critics.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#233

Post by therealdrag0 »

overgard wrote: post #214
heresalexandria wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was pretty cool, knocking out a problem that the best minds in maths couldn't for 80 years: https://openai.com/index/model-disproves-discrete-geometry-c... Also this is a remarkable (and realistic) evaluation of where these systems are for general work which speaks to both the room to grow as well as the pace: https://www.remotelabor.ai/ For some practical examples of what the leading consumer grade AI can do, E…

The first link is openai, who uh, might be a little biased. The second link looks lab-sponsored. The third link is a blog post of a lot of hype and little substance. (I tried fable twice and I was unimpressed) I'd love to see an example of something someone made that is not affiliated with these corporations. The thing is, I imagine there ARE examples, AI isn't completely useless, but the amount of signal around this…

It’s very subjective, so there’ll be endless debates about this. It’s a speed boost, to some that is amazing to others it’s bleh.

All my examples are private which also probably applies to many other folks here. In my personal projects and friends stealth startups that are greenfield, the boost is 5-10x for coding. For my midsized enterprise employer, we have tracking of over a hundred diverse projects and the average reduction in dev years to completion is about 50%. Not 10x, but not chump change either.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#234

Post by Theodores »

skydhash wrote: post #166
Theodores wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have just been looking for a book on O'Reilly, of an existing tech, but I am not sure that tech really matters because AI has taken over in ways that do not interest me. With printed books for web development you want a recent book. I am sure there is much to be learned from the 2002 book, but I want 2024+. The list of titles starts out strong, with titles such as 'Web development with XYZ' but the 2024+ titles are…

I’m fine with old books. Just bought a bunch including “The TCP/IP Guide” and “The Linux Programming Interface”, which are more than a decade old. The oldest is “ The Design and Implementation of the 4.4Bsd Operating System” (30 years). It’s better starting from an old books and retrace the updates from that. And with the benefits of hindsight, you can get truly good ones cheaply.

I like your reading material. I do think the foundations are to be found in the old texts too, but there are limits to it. Take web development, I honestly think that what Tim Berners-Lee conceived has to be understood because the design goals are in there, however, nothing from the era of IE6 hacks should ever be learned because all of it has to be unlearned if you are to understand the newer toys such as the grid layout that we somehow lived without for so long. That too has fundamentals, design goals and specifications that need to be understood if you are to truly get it.

But now you would have 'how to do grid layout with Claude' or something equally daft. And you can bet your bottom dollar that the book would itself be written with AI.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#235

Post by Planktonne »

nailer wrote: post #229
Planktonne wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you earn 8 times as much now?

I know the point you’re attempting to make but I’ll answer anyway: no but my work is vastly less tedious.

That's good to hear. I do think you should benefit more from the increased value created, but it sounds like it's actually made a significant difference to you.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#236

Post by overgard »

therealdrag0 wrote: post #233
overgard wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first link is openai, who uh, might be a little biased. The second link looks lab-sponsored. The third link is a blog post of a lot of hype and little substance. (I tried fable twice and I was unimpressed) I'd love to see an example of something someone made that is not affiliated with these corporations. The thing is, I imagine there ARE examples, AI isn't completely useless, but the amount of signal around this…

It’s very subjective, so there’ll be endless debates about this. It’s a speed boost, to some that is amazing to others it’s bleh. All my examples are private which also probably applies to many other folks here. In my personal projects and friends stealth startups that are greenfield, the boost is 5-10x for coding. For my midsized enterprise employer, we have tracking of over a hundred diverse projects and the averag…

You know, even before AI whenever I heard someone be like "my business idea is so revolutionary I MUST KEEP IT A SECRET" my eyes would roll out of my head. I promise you, your ideas are not nearly as amazing as you think they are and absolutely nobody wants to steal them.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#237

Post by ben_w »

overgard wrote: post #215
pclmulqdq wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The threat of breaking all encryption has been a slow-burning $1 trillion or more grift for the field over the last 20-30 years. Not that anything has materialized from it. I am somewhat convinced that PQC is primarily being rolled out so that we can all stop funding those clowns (and because lattice-based cryptography is finally ready for prime time).

I don't know if breaking encryption will even matter if we just keep handing over all our data anyway.

Depends on machine availability.

If all crypto can only be broken by a machine that can itself only be made by 3 companies all of which are very careful about who they sell to, we get a few governments spying on everyone (including each other), while keeping normal criminal hacking (and insufficiently important governments) locked out.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#238

Post by therealdrag0 »

overgard wrote: post #236
therealdrag0 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very subjective, so there’ll be endless debates about this. It’s a speed boost, to some that is amazing to others it’s bleh. All my examples are private which also probably applies to many other folks here. In my personal projects and friends stealth startups that are greenfield, the boost is 5-10x for coding. For my midsized enterprise employer, we have tracking of over a hundred diverse projects and the averag…

You know, even before AI whenever I heard someone be like "my business idea is so revolutionary I MUST KEEP IT A SECRET" my eyes would roll out of my head. I promise you, your ideas are not nearly as amazing as you think they are and absolutely nobody wants to steal them.

Sure, but that’s besides the point.

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#239

Post by skydhash »

Theodores wrote: post #234
skydhash wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m fine with old books. Just bought a bunch including “The TCP/IP Guide” and “The Linux Programming Interface”, which are more than a decade old. The oldest is “ The Design and Implementation of the 4.4Bsd Operating System” (30 years). It’s better starting from an old books and retrace the updates from that. And with the benefits of hindsight, you can get truly good ones cheaply.

I like your reading material. I do think the foundations are to be found in the old texts too, but there are limits to it. Take web development, I honestly think that what Tim Berners-Lee conceived has to be understood because the design goals are in there, however, nothing from the era of IE6 hacks should ever be learned because all of it has to be unlearned if you are to understand the newer toys such as the grid l…

I separate my learning into “understanding/” and “skill”, the latter being the applied form of the former. I don’t really buy books for the latter, and the former may not be always in book form.

IE6 hacks are skills. The real understanding is how CSS helps with layout. Grid may not be in an old book, but the old will give you enough foundation to easily grasp it. So something like “CSS in Depth”[0] (which talks about grid BTW) is a good candidate to buy.

I think you can get good materials if you focus on getting books that talks about a system (design, theory, implementation), not techniques(skills, how to). Systems evolve and are build on top of each other, or influence each other. Skills come and go.

[0] https://www.manning.com/books/css-in-depth

Re: Please stop the AI confidence theater

#240

Post by pixelready »

tavavex wrote: post #78
AaronAPU wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve long considered marketing to be one of the purest forms of evil in existence. It truly does envelop and destroy everything good.

I wonder how most of them sleep at night. Do they think they're providing a valuable service? Do they like what they're doing? Do they think of themselves as good people?

It strikes me as sort of civil society “arms dealer” type of role, like lawyers. In a utopia where everyone cooperated in good faith and behaved honorably we would not need them (or very few of them), but as soon as one group arms themselves, everyone must regardless of their feelings about it. Then the marketers become an interest group unto themselves and stoke the paranoia of everyone who might need their services, and the endless escalation eats away at the underlying system turning it into more noise than signal.
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