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Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

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Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#232
The headline is only half true. A more accurate rendition might be "Transactions don't happen because you fixed a problem that never occurred."

That illustrates the converse. People will absolutely try to avoid future problems if they are the ones that bear the consequences for them. Use birth control (or put your kid on it) so you don't have to raise another child for 20+ years. Don't hang out with that volatile "friend" who always seems to be having another crisis. Fix your roof so you don't lose the house. Don't go into debt because you're the one who will be paying interest on it.

But almost by definition, bearing the consequences of your own decisions implies that there's no transaction.

It's interesting and fitting that the article begins with a discussion of Toyota. People buy Toyotas because they want to avoid problems. The biggest selling point is reliability; a Toyota's value prop is that you can keep it for 20 years and you won't have unexpected things go wrong with it. Toyota has managed to turn this into a sales driver because they appeal to the self-interest of a buyer who will be living with the car for 10-20 years. There are thousands of individual decisions that Toyota makes to avoid problems with their cars, starting with a very conservative aversion to new technology or anything that is engineeringly risky. Each individual one is invisible to the customer, and often comes with significant costs in isolation. But because their sales driver is "be reliable at all costs" and they've ingrained that into the culture, they've built an organization that is willing to make these feature trade-offs for reliability.

Also, an interesting corollary is "Oftentimes, a good life is lived with few transactions."

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> something many people are hoping to solve in healthcare Respectfully, the solution is don't smoke, exercise, eat well, sleep, avoid stressors... These aren't easy problems but their solution isn't at the individual patient level and is a simple question of capital and political will. The 'hope' envisages a product to temporize the solution while extracting large payments.

Nope, I believe you are wrong: a path where we, for example, forbid smoking because the statistics point at it correlating with many health problems, is a world where we use the same statistical tool to prescribe human behavior to the last detail. It is not just about smoking, alcohol, late night dancing, switching sex partners, fast driving on a track, paragliding, skydiving, climbing, car driving, bicycle driving,…

> forbid smoking because the statistics point at it correlating with many health problems, is a world where we use the same statistical tool to prescribe human behavior to the last detail.

I had a really great egg for breakfast. This now means I will never eat anything else besides eggs.

Also, I realized that cars run better with oil changes every 3 months or 5,000 miles. Because shorter was better, we should all start changing oil daily.

The best player in the basketball game last week was over 7'4" tall. I guess I need to discourage anyone who isn't that tall from playing ever.

Do you see why banning smoking is a good idea?

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#235
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share the source of the anecdote? I tried to find it in Zhuangzi and was not successful.

Best I can tell, it's originally from Heguanzi: https://ctext.org/he-guan-zi/shi-xian

Beautiful text. By the way, I can't thank enough the maintainers at ctext.org. What a beautiful work they do.

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#236

The title reminds me of an interesting ancient Chinese anecdote. And it is also a bit ironic that Toyota has gotten itself into some scandals recently ( https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wwj1p2wdyo ). King Wen of Wei asked Bian Que: “Of you three brothers, all physicians, who is the finest in the healing art?” Bian Que replied: “My eldest brother is the finest; my second brother comes next; I, Bian Que, am the leas…

or a simpler version: "A stitch in time saves nine...but I charge by the stitch"

literally one of the main reasons america spends so much on healthcare

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#237
Hikaru Nakamura had a good comment on famous chess moves like this: All the famous chess moves are famous sacrifices, genius saves, and last minute checkmates, but when you plug the games into stockfish you find out that these scenarios only happened cause the players made a series of awful moves early on in the game

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#238
This is interesting because you can't prove you prevented something from happening. It never happened after all. Hank Green has an interesting video on preventative measures are often unsung, because how do you know?

https://youtu.be/ndeB_BpsRGk?is=03lR2DMyhfwkT3L-

Kids in Africa who would have otherwise died from measles, but didn't get measles in the first place because some people decided to fund and make vaccines and thousands of unnamed and unrecognized volunteers helped distribute and administer these vaccines...

These kids are alive and they don't even know that they wouldn't be alive if it weren't for some people they may never meet, and whose names they'll never know.

Also tangentially, reminds me of an excerpt of a book called The Trigger Effect I read as a kid, which said something along the lines of, when you use your car's brakes to prevent an accident, your life depends on whoever assembled the brakes and quality controlled them. You'll never know their name, and they'll never know that they saved your life.

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#239
post #17

I've been in those companies where "struggling departments" ended up getting all the praises and raise in budgets the following quarter because of the heroic saves they did, and raising awareness on how important they are... For stuff they totally caused on themselves. Meanwhile, my perfectly purring department was struggling to keep the lights on. It's a serious problem in this industry due to the disconnect between…

> I've been in those companies where "struggling departments" ended up getting all the praises and raise in budgets the following quarter because of the heroic saves they did, and raising awareness on how important they are... For stuff they totally caused on themselves. This is a very game-able system, and I'd wager a decent amount that any senior engineers on those teams know exactly what they are doing. In a lot o…

[deleted]

Re: Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened (2001) [pdf]

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, I believe you are wrong: a path where we, for example, forbid smoking because the statistics point at it correlating with many health problems, is a world where we use the same statistical tool to prescribe human behavior to the last detail. It is not just about smoking, alcohol, late night dancing, switching sex partners, fast driving on a track, paragliding, skydiving, climbing, car driving, bicycle driving,…

> forbid smoking because the statistics point at it correlating with many health problems, is a world where we use the same statistical tool to prescribe human behavior to the last detail. I had a really great egg for breakfast. This now means I will never eat anything else besides eggs. Also, I realized that cars run better with oil changes every 3 months or 5,000 miles. Because shorter was better, we should all sta…

You seem to have inverted the logic: I did not say we have to make everybody smoke, which your examples imply.

My position is: do not ban (make illegal!) everything that has statistically significant risk for one's health (like smoking, alcohol, mountain climbing, spelunking, bike-riding, horse-riding, car racing, NFL...).

So no, I do not see why banning smoking altogether is a good idea (and no, I am not a smoker — I never was either). I can get behind increased health premiums or heavy taxation, banning smoking in communal spaces...

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