Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Arms race" is the term used colloquially to describe the dynamic that emerges in "winner-take-all" markets. It seems that the frontier labs believe they're participants in a winner-take-all market. Therefore they're in "an arms race." Winner-take-all markets do not require that the winner literally destroys the losers, but only that the winner enjoys disproportionate returns compared to their actual superiority. Whe…
Creative destruction is absolutely a thing in the market, but the way things are going it seems more likely that open source models will just destroy everything else as far as most users are concerned. The big proprietary labs will be effectively left with Fable, GPT-Pro and Gemini Deep Research - stuff that by all indications needs very large scale compute to even feasibly run. We'll probably find out that each has…
> Whether or not this is actually true is TBD, but I think you're naive to think the frontier labs do not believe this to be true.