I think the article is correct to point out remote work as a big culprit, but for the wrong reasons. The article says "Employers, the Fed argues, are wary of hiring inexperienced people into remote roles, where the on-the-job mentorship that turns a new grad into a productive worker is hard to deliver." And I agree that's a factor, but I really think that what changed in the late teens is that remote software and net…
So what are remaining high-paying white collar jobs which aren't exposed to this type of foreign competition? I'm thinking lawyer, since legal skills aren't as portable across international borders?
New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
231–240 of 320 posts
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#232I wonder what the impact of the rising base rate of employees with college degrees is. In 1992, a fresh college graduate had better educational attainment than 42% of the labor force. In 2016 (latest date I found numbers for), that was down to 32%. https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2017/educational-attainment-of... That shifting distribution would somewhat reduce the advantage of a college degree against the average memb…
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#233I keep going back to the debate with myself. Do I give my now-young kids 500K in an ETF in 14 years or do I send them to college? And the debate is not about how they will spend it (I can hold on to it too), it’s about whether to spend the money or just pass on the wealth to them. People have given me tons of reasons why college is good for them - independence, etc etc. I can find a way to give them independence with…
IMO you could learn a lot more, as a young person, starting a small business than you'll ever learn at college, and it'll cost less even if you fail. So I don't want to make it a "college fund" or anything like that.
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
American parents on average may be less willing and financially able to support deadbeat adult children than their Chinese peers.
Bonkers to call college graduates deadbeats. These aren’t addicts or slackers. They had to have some level of achievement their whole lives and managed to finish a degree.
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#235This is the easiest niche to pick on but I am mid career for cybersecurity. I spend a decent amount of time trying to advise people away from this career field for college. So so so so so many people are going to college for cyber not realizing when they graduate, they are in totality unemployable. Really I'm not sure how new people to tech could even enter the industry, it seems like at the lower levels the entire i…
I personally as a general rule don’t hire people who work in cybersecurity if they were not traditional developers first. The chances of you understanding “cybersecurity” without also understanding how general software works is extremely low.
So in this sense it is true there is a significant shortage of qualified cybersecurity people to fill the roles.
The mistake is that institutions try to fill that shortage with some undergrad program (or worse, certification) which of course can't build expertise in all the above fields in a few years. So that graduate is nearly as unqualified after graduation as before.
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#236The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…
> We stopped building new housing The current rate of new build construction is the highest it has been since 2007, ignoring the spike during late COVID-era zero interest rates. Also: US population is growing slower than anytime in modern history, again excluding COVID (though, a few more years and we'll be down at that level again all naturally). [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST?utm_source=chatgpt.... [2…
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t know about that, I feel like one of the issues when one person-one vote democracies is that it means the greater population demographic (aka the Boomers) hold a relatively higher proportion of the vote and thus can majority rule everyone else.
The mistake you're making here is in the assumption that voters have any meaningful input on policy. Given the overwhelming majority of policy at both the state and federal level is drafted by lobbyists this assumption seems questionable at best.
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#238The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…
It's not just our young—that just receives disproportionate attention. The entire country is being actively looted under the guise of "economic growth". Anyway, increasing supply isn't going to solve our many problems leading to widespread homelessness and financial insecurity, but the Ezra Klein dunces aren't ready for that conversation yet.
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is absolutely not the case in any way. The US is the most vibrant and productive economy in the world, the envy of every other country. China is literally trying to climb the economic ladder up to the type of hugely productive, high paying jobs that the US is. And somehow the US got tricked into thinking that the low paying, less productive manufacturing jobs are what we should be climbing down to.
It's true in some very important ways. Manufacturing employment is something like 15% of what it was fifty years ago. We only do manufacturing for things that require a lot of technology and a sophisticated skill set. But not everyone in society is cut out to manufacture integrated circuits. It used to be that a person on the left half of the IQ bell curve could go out and get a job making brooms, or plumbing fixture…
You can worry about manufacturing in the national security sense, but it is not missing in jobs.
Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s impossible to predict what jobs in the trades would look like either if AI eats all the high salary white collar jobs.
Oh, but they already have that figured out. You can't become a licensed electrician without doing x hours of apprenticeship under licensed electrician. And each licensed electrician doesn't need more than one or two helpers at a time, so... Hollywood is the same. Want to join SAG? You need to get cast in 5 SAG productions. Oh, but SAG productions only cast SAG actors? Oh well... Meanwhile, all us nerds were trying to…