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US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

bbc.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#231

Post by triceratops »

dominotw wrote: post #25
dwa3592 wrote: post #17

I understand it is a complicated calculation but to me personally, inflation feels much more than that. I have been tracking the price of milk. Around 3 months ago, i was getting a gallon of milk at $2.97, then it went up to 3.07, then 3.25. Yesterday I paid 3.40. That's like 15% gain on something as basic as milk. All numbers from the same store.

milk prices go up and down even outside inflation cycles. how do you know this is inflation. price of milk at your local grocery store in last 3 months is not enough data to attribute causation.

This has serious "the climate changes naturally" energy.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#232

Post by doctorpangloss »

b40d-48b2-979e wrote: post #171
doctorpangloss wrote: post #7

energy pricing is complex. some food for thought: if everyone believes the straight of hormuz is open, even if it is not, even if 20% less oil is being moved globally, what happens to oil prices? what happens to oil deliveries? is it possible for oil to be cheap in America while Bangladesh experiences shortages, instead of everyone paying more? is oil the same as energy? or is it more relevant to transportation? does…

a lot of people like it. No? We have no other option in the US outside of a few major cities because the oil lobby has ruined any public transit we can hope for.

i don't own a car, i bike everywhere with young kids. i like public transport. we're not talking about that. people fucking LOVE cars. they LOVE single family homes. everywhere, in every community.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#233

Post by myth_drannon »

WarmWash wrote: post #153
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

The saving grace is that China (well modern living CCP members) have never had an armed conflict. China's military ranks are people who got there by playing politics and bending exercises to their benefit rather than showing battlefield competence. There are no war vets or experienced players. So while they might have incredible man power and manufacturing capability, everyone in that first battle will be seeing batt…

China is even worse than Russia on that matter. Before the invasion to Ukraine, Russia was heavily involved in Syria, Chechnia and other conflicts and with that experience it failed miserably. China, with all its posturing, military wise is even worse than Russia. That's why all it can do is propaganda war on social media to weaken American society.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#234

Post by amanaplanacanal »

randusername wrote: post #132
doctorpangloss wrote: post #7

energy pricing is complex. some food for thought: if everyone believes the straight of hormuz is open, even if it is not, even if 20% less oil is being moved globally, what happens to oil prices? what happens to oil deliveries? is it possible for oil to be cheap in America while Bangladesh experiences shortages, instead of everyone paying more? is oil the same as energy? or is it more relevant to transportation? does…

> is it possible for oil to be cheap in America while Bangladesh experiences shortages, instead of everyone paying more? I think the US has been ramping up domestic oil production for a while, creating an interesting situation where (global) prices are high but (domestic) supply is healthy. Prices are up at the pump in the US, but I'm not sure how much of that OPEC+ price-fixing or "risk premium".

Oil is fungible. Oil producers are going to sell it to whoever pays the most. There is no law that says US oil producers have to sell it to US customers. Having domestic supply does nothing to insulate US consumers from higher prices.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#235

Post by slashdev »

khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

It's not over yet, but the status quo is certainly a loss for the US. Which to me indicates Trump won't stop here, he needs something he can at least spin as a win.

I think Trump is about to lose patience with Iran again and we're in for a second phase of this war. What that looks like afterwards is anyone's guess. I'm not very optimistic.

It's not impossible that if the IRGC can't make payroll that things start to change from the inside, like what happened in Serbia. I'm not going to bet on that outcome though.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#236

Post by hackable_sand »

jmward01 wrote: post #191
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

Short, medium and long-term this will spur the world to move off of fossil fuels. I'm not a fan of war, especially this stupid one, but that one benefit may be, unintentionally, worth it.

It's nice to be optimistic, but we already have incentives to upgrade to renewable energy.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#237

Post by NickC25 »

virgildotcodes wrote: post #158
gretch wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The bases got attacked and destroyed with basically zero effort whatsoever, local militaries had to step up to defend the US bases on their own dime and with their own people putting their lives on the line As a US citizen, I hope more countries come to this realization and start rejecting these. It's such a lose-lose for everyone The establishment and maintenance of these bases cost the tax payers so much.... If o…

The America First MAGA people fail so hard to understand that these expenditures on things like foreign bases and US Aid resulted in far greater returns for us. It's never been about altruism or the greater good. I say this as an anti-empirical leftist with no great sympathy for the effort, but for those proclaiming to put America's interests above all else it's just such an obvious and idiotic short-sighted self-own…

US Aid has probably been the biggest ace the US ever had in its hand.

US farmers growing otherwise unprofitable crops with no buyer? Check. US exporters being able to export crops? Check. US Aid workers being able to give food to starving people in countries that have huge deposits of rare earth materials? Check. US intelligence apparatus having advanced knowledge of developing situations in strategically important countries? Check. US Aid workers being able deliver tremendous goodwill to countries that China or Russia would love to have their tentacles in? Check.

Everyone's happy, everyone makes money, everyone eats.

Yet Donald Trump and Elon Musk don't like it, so away it goes. And there's no adult in the room to say "no, you're not cutting it, here's why".

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#238

Post by WarmWash »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #78
giantg2 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are real wages. We would expect to see that during a sudden jump in inflation. Wages tend to lag inflation. The other interesting part in that article is that excluding fuel and food still shows 2.8% inflation - only 1% attributable to food and fuel. Makes it seem like the main article and this article have different spins. Edit: Wow people are jumping on this. The point is that food and fuel increases account…

I will say, this past inflation spike has completely broken the assumptions I had from 1970s economics that employers would raise their 'cost of living' raises to keep pace with inflation. My employer seems to think 2.5% is fine, as they've done it multiple years in recent past with only one extraordinary year netting 4%. I am now very skeptical of any so called 'wage price spiral'

That's why macro economic data is based on nationally reported data from tens of thousands employers rather than just one company.

We can look at the data and clearly see the inflection point where wages started rising faster once the pandemic began.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECIWAG

And looking at real wages, we can see that wages have actually outpaced inflation since ~2015

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#240

Post by array_key_first »

jcranmer wrote: post #65
stuaxo wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah fuel and food - those classic unimportant things.

Fuel and food are excluded from core inflation not because they're unimportant (they are in fact incredibly important) but because they are much more volatile in price--going up and down in bigger increments--so that you get a more stable view of inflation by excluding them.

But it's a bit of a nasty trick because food, in particular, has inflated in price a lot the past 3 years. Some items, like sugar, are legitimately double the price they were.
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