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Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

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Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#231

Post by sokoloff »

donmcronald wrote: post #170
sokoloff wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After the recent run-up, where are prices on a per-performance basis? Back to 2019? Computers were incredibly more expensive when I was growing up. People bought them anyway. Is a computer that lasts 5-8 really productive years (and is still serviceable for another 5-7) and costs $1500 really a deal-breaker just because it was $1000 and on sale for $850 a year ago? Even if it doubled again, it still doesn’t price nor…

> Is a computer that lasts 5-8 really productive years (and is still serviceable for another 5-7) and costs $1500 really a deal-breaker just because it was $1000 and on sale for $850 a year ago? Even if it doubled again, it still doesn’t price normal people out, IMO. Maybe it's different in the US. In Canada, the median income for 25-54 years old was just under $60k / year in 2024. When you're talking about a $3k USD…

> When you're talking about a $3k USD computer, it's pushing 10% or more of the median after tax income.

If it lasts for 10 years, it's more like 1% of the after tax income of a median individual earner over that period.

I think a computer is clearly valuable enough that people will entirely rationally spend 1% of their income on it if that's what it costs. (I'm not "cheering it on"; I'm just observing and predicting that lots of normal people will still buy computers.)

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#232

Post by dfxm12 »

johndhi wrote: post #175
fatal94 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will surely bring new energy into opening these platforms, as it did in days before

why? I'm interested to know, WHY is PC so open? what led to that?

You might be interested in the IBM PC compatible and Wintel wikipedia pages. This is a super high level timeline, but it is more interesting to get into the detail.

At a high level, the IBM PC platform were very well documented & sold well, to the effect of producing tons of software and peripherals add-ons ("PC Compatibles"). This led some other computer companies to reverse engineer the proprietary IBM BIOS, allowing them to run the same software and use the same peripherals. Because these were clean room reimplementations, IBM didn't have a legal case to prevent their sale.

Fast forward a bit, IBM's attempt at a new, closed platform, PS/2, flopped. People wanted their more open hardware. Windows became dominate enough that all the demand was for x86 based hardware that could run Windows. Microsoft was happy to work with many vendors.

The PC is very open today, but Apple survived. Atari ST and Amiga probably survived longer than you think as well.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#233

Post by deathanatos »

sokoloff wrote: post #112
AshleyGrant wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think your idea of what "normal people" can afford is a bit off. Normal people aren't buying $1500 computers. And they definitely aren't buying $3000 computers.

An 4K Apple ][ cost the equivalent of around $7K when released. A C64 cost the equivalent of around $2K when released. Both were fairly popular and vastly less useful than a computer today. If the cheapest useful computer ends up costing $3K, it will still be purchased and will still be worth it at around $1/day of useful life.

It was nice, in the 90s and 00s when computing hardware's cost was just falling so rapidly. I think it was like what, 1.5x "stuff" each year? Like RAM going 1.5x bigger every 12 months, CPU frequencies increased by that much. Per-unit prices were falling.

Now, per unit costs is rising faster than inflation. The WD HDD I bought in 2017 for $65 real ($49 nominal) is now $95 real, 50% more expensive after inflation.

Trust me when I say my income has not increased by 50% post-inflation since then! (Also … I really should not have checked that number. Needless to say, it's not positive.)

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#234

Post by jay_kyburz »

toasty228 wrote: post #209
cryo32 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying whole 2020 era PCs here for around $200 mark. As long as you don't need crazy CPU or GPU grunt, which is most people, they are almost indistinguishable from a new one. Windows 10 LTSC + Firefox + uBlock Origin on an i5-9400 feels faster than my M4 Pro MBP. Probably same or better on Linux.

Upgrade my cpu the other day, got a ryzen 5 5600 for ~$100 new, can't complain. Still on my rtx 2060, can't complain either. As long as you don't fall for the 120hz and 4k memes you can easily get by with 2020 hardware indeed.

I plugged a 60hz monitor in at work and discovered I can't ever go back. I need 32" 4k 120hz at least now.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#235

Post by hx8 »

SoftTalker wrote: post #185
hx8 wrote: post #59

PC is the last major open platform. While other platforms like Android and becoming less open, PC in general is becoming more open than it's been in a long time as heavy MacOS/Android/iOS competition is creating a focus on open standards and all-time high strong Linux support gives people a place to land and tinker/hack to their heart's content. I think we will see an abandonment of consumer grade PC components and i…

Why would most people need a home server rack? That's a lot of noise, space, and electrical usage. For what most people would need a home "server" for a NUC PC or Mac Mini would do the job.

Ziply Fiber is offering 50 gbps home internet connections in some US locations. You cannot utilize that type of speed with a Mac Mini. Even the modest 8-10gbps connections offered by T-Mobile and Google probably require more.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#236

Post by wlesieutre »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #169
craftkiller wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I already have home sever rack, and would recommend it for other people. I just want to warn people who haven't heard server-grade hardware in-person before: this is only for people who can put a server rack somewhere unpopulated like a garage or basement. Servers will make you think "wow, leafblowers sure are quiet". They are not suitable for apartment dwellers such as myself. When I was setting up my 1U before sh…

> my 1U 1Us have the most compromised ventilation and compensate with loud fans running at high speeds.

Not only the loudness, the small fans have subjectively more annoying sound even if they were the same volume. Much more shrill than a large fan.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#237

Post by ryukoposting »

Aurornis wrote: post #211
reactordev wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re dropping that kind of cash, you definitely want to future proof it and not go with the budget lastgen motherboards.

Future proofing is an expensive way to pay for features you don't need and will probably never use. It's smarter to buy a cheap motherboard that meets your needs now. If in the future you find the need for USB4 or some other feature, upgrade the motherboard. More often than not, builders will try to future proof for eventualities that don't arrive before it's time to upgrade to the next CPU socket anyway. There are a…

This. In 2017 I bought the cheapest AM4 motherboard with a USB-C port (a Gigabyte X370 Aorus Word Salad). I'm still using it because BIOS updates gave it Zen 3 support.

Wanna guess how many times I've used that USB-C port? Maybe once or twice in the 9 years I've owned it. Never needed it. I also couldn't tell you what X370 is getting me that B350 wouldn't have gotten me.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#238

Post by wlesieutre »

hx8 wrote: post #235
SoftTalker wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would most people need a home server rack? That's a lot of noise, space, and electrical usage. For what most people would need a home "server" for a NUC PC or Mac Mini would do the job.

Ziply Fiber is offering 50 gbps home internet connections in some US locations. You cannot utilize that type of speed with a Mac Mini. Even the modest 8-10gbps connections offered by T-Mobile and Google probably require more.

Doesn't really answer the question though, why would someone be trying to utilize that much bandwidth out of their house?

Is this for people trying to start the next netflix out of their garage before they have any money to put the servers in a colo?

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#239

Post by hx8 »

c7b wrote: post #227
hx8 wrote: post #59

PC is the last major open platform. While other platforms like Android and becoming less open, PC in general is becoming more open than it's been in a long time as heavy MacOS/Android/iOS competition is creating a focus on open standards and all-time high strong Linux support gives people a place to land and tinker/hack to their heart's content. I think we will see an abandonment of consumer grade PC components and i…

Contrary take: I believe we will see an expanded market for capable PCs that can be sanely put in a living space. By extension of the gaming PC niche to local AI. Both NVidia and AMD are developing product lines in that direction (DGX Spark, Ryzen AI Max). And Linux will be more prominent than ever, due to several independent reasons: MS dropping the ball hard on Windows, SteamOS making Linux attractive for gamers, '…

Great take, but if the market is expanding for capable PCs why are motherboard sales decreasing?

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#240

Post by the__alchemist »

Aurornis wrote: post #211
reactordev wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you’re dropping that kind of cash, you definitely want to future proof it and not go with the budget lastgen motherboards.

Future proofing is an expensive way to pay for features you don't need and will probably never use. It's smarter to buy a cheap motherboard that meets your needs now. If in the future you find the need for USB4 or some other feature, upgrade the motherboard. More often than not, builders will try to future proof for eventualities that don't arrive before it's time to upgrade to the next CPU socket anyway. There are a…

It's a gamble. I take the opposite mindset now; scarcity mindset.

"$1600 is too much for a video card" - me a few years ago on not buying an RTX4090 from nvidia's website.

"I only need 32Gb of RAM. If I want more later, I'll just updgrade" - Me a year ago.

Both mistakes, with hindsight. I will always future proof from here on out.

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