Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#231

Post by pjc50 »

mothballed wrote: post #220
pjc50 wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

God, they're going to love that - provided it's a swift victory, of course. They've wanted that since the Bay of Pigs.

I wonder what Cuba would look like now if Batista had never been overthrown. That's probably on par with how it would have worked if US meddling were more successful. I can't say I know it would be worse.

Difficult to separate "Cuba is bad because it is badly governed" from "Cuba is bad because it has been heavily sanctioned and no longer gets help from the Soviet Union", really. Too many different variables. Hard to imagine it being worse than Haiti or El Salvador, but also hard to imagine it having free elections (because that would immediately elect an anti-US socialist who would be overthrown again).

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#232

Post by ceejayoz »

joshrw wrote: post #116
leonidasrup wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

That’s not what that quote means. It means even if your portfolio is down you should keep buying.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YXivtoSkuVQ

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#233

Post by specialist »

pjc50 wrote: post #203
an0malous wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Trump supporters, including Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Dave Smith, voted for him because of his anti-war stance during campaigning. I’m not defending their poor judgement of an infamous con artist (I didn’t vote for Trump) but we should ask ourselves how democracy can function if candidates can just make things up during campaigns and do the complete opposite when they’re elected. We should also ask ours…

> Tucker Carlson I'd just like to remind everyone that this guy got fired from Fox News for being too extreme an idealogue. > I’m not defending their poor judgement of an infamous con artist At some point you have to hold adult Republicans accountable for their actions. They were warned repeatedly; they chose to ignore the warnings. > ask how it’s possible that such unpopular wars always seem to have bipartisan suppo…

> ... because they are losing.

The pnly unforgiveable sin in USA politics.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#234

Post by DFHippie »

bobthepanda wrote: post #189
philipallstar wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike Venezuela and Iran, Cuba doesn't really fuel China, so I assume it's not such a priority.

I mean, in that case why rattle about Greenland?

Somebody, in a conversation of which there will be no record, told him it was a good idea, telling him it would be quick, he would be lauded as a hero, there would be vast mineral riches, etc. This person wanted to break up NATO, but this wasn't part of the sales pitch, I imagine.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#235

Post by Someone1234 »

pjc50 wrote: post #215
lbriner wrote: post #192

The scary thing for me is that in the US, the President and by extension the DoJ has a lot of power to override any legal protections that exist in most countries. In the UK, the Prime Minister or the Home Office cannot ring up any of the enforcement agencies and tell them to drop a corruption case - the law is supposed to apply to everyone. In the US, for some reason, if you are a danger to the President's friends,…

> In the UK, the Prime Minister or the Home Office cannot ring up any of the enforcement agencies and tell them to drop a corruption case - the law is supposed to apply to everyone. I would not rely on that. The Attorney General can withdraw prosecutions, and is a government minister (although not technically in the Cabinet). Parliament can do anything , it just usually doesn't. This includes retroactive legislation…

Yep; I think the above comment took the wrong lessons.

What actually happened in the US is that "common norms and expectations" were thrown out the window, so instead of the question being "What is traditionally done?" it became "What can legally be done?" And, as it turns out, when you're only constrained by the letter of the law the executive branch is insanely powerful.

UK politics, more than most younger countries, is particularly susceptible to this. Norms, traditionally, and commonly understood standards make up a scary amount of constraints on the powers of government. If anyone gained power that only feels limited by the letter of the law (i.e. throws out norms, traditions, and standards), the UK is in serious trouble and Parliament hasn't moved to address it.

Somewhat ironically (given how unpopular it is), the Lords may be the best back-stop the UK has. Particularly the 30%~ which do not originate from politics.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#236

Post by pjc50 »

sailfast wrote: post #99
5o3lad wrote: post #95

The corruption is a welcome byproduct of Trump's role as a Reality TV host who has to keep the conflict going and Hormuz closed. The fact that he is talking peace again now is just because he cannot attack before the meeting with Xi in mid May. The real issue is US energy dominance and control of the sea routes. Which Krugman does not mention, because the effort is bipartisan and he probably likes it. The US literall…

I think you’re giving Trump too much credit. If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal. The 60 day window is over. He has no appropriated money to fight the war, no public support, and no way out. There is no chess game here. It’s not even checkers. He is just trying to not have to admit he made a mistake - just with billions of dollars and lives on the line. Such sad.

> If he starts firing shots again the war is illegal. The 60 day window is over. He has no appropriated money to fight the war, no public support, and no way out.

There's at least two other belligerents in this war who get a say, as well as a large number of other countries which count as victims (everyone from Lebanon to UAE). No US decision can stop Israel and Iran from fighting.

He has operational control of the armed forces. This has never been disputed recently; he can order whatever shots he wants. The armed forces funding is in one whole pot which is guaranteed even against a "shutdown". He also has total legal immunity for official acts.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#237

Post by mannanj »

So, basically, over the last century or more or so, we've learned:

- our laws, the ones that supposedly keep society stable and safe, don't apply to particular groups of people

- we can catch them, and maybe, just maybe, we will hold someone accountable for those people, though often they just distract and trick everyone from holding them accountable

- the majority of people are getting stolen from, treated like slaves and tricked and abused, and they will tolerate this abuse because of

Am I to accept this frame of reality in which the universe and the earth, and the leaders currently making decisions for me and holding influence over the worlds' military powers, are this hostile towards me?

I refuse. I think we have more power than we think. In America at least, we still have an amendment that has yet to be repealed (created for scenarios in which abusers hold leadership positions and refuse to be accountable): the 1st amendment and parading guns legally, safely, and responsibly is a powerful reminder of what accountability and dignity looks like.

edit: I advocate for parading guns peacefully with an intention and purpose: go with a group standing for rights, safety and dignity

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#238

Post by pjc50 »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #225
zzrrt wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hot take: if <80% of eligible voters show up, nobody wins and the same politicians stay in office for another year, even if term limits would normally apply.

How about instead it immediately triggers another new election and the people who ran previously are not eligible to run ever again

Slightly less left field proposal: failure to pass a budget should immediately force fresh elections (both houses plus presidency), as it would in a Parliamentary system. None of this "shutdown" nonsense.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#239

Post by adamandsteve »

jimlawruk wrote: post #216
SoftTalker wrote: post #106

If you are trading in the futures market and you don't have inside info or are not an actual supplier of the commodity, you are the sucker.

Isn't there a 50% chance you are betting on the "insider" side of it?

There's a The issue is that the odds aren't actually 50/50 on you buying either side of the trade; one half will look like a better deal (and given public information, it is a better deal) so you'll buy that half. Then when the market resolves, it'll turn out that insiders knew some piece of information that made the other half of the trade a better choice.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#240

Post by pphysch »

breppp wrote: post #213
leonidasrup wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

[flagged]

The only place I've heard that name come up recently is the very real and close association to Jeffrey Epstein
Post reply on HN