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The RAM shortage could last years

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#231
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well And hopefully kill Electron. I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

The point is being able to write it once with web developers instead of writing it a minimum of twice (Windows and macOS) with much harder to hire native UI developers.

As the kids say: skill issue!

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if it takes 100 years to get to AGI or we never achieve it? All bets on AGI will just fail over and over again for decades in that case. It seems a bit like saying financiers can't risk not being involved with Faster-than-light travel technology. Yeah, it would change everything if we got it, but betting that we'll get it soon over and over again is probably not going to get you a lot of money. We've been projec…

Who has been projecting FTL as a realistic technology ever? FTL is not possible according to the current laws of Physics, while AGI is at least not forbidden by them.

We don't even know what human consciousness is. We can't even answer if we have free will or not. And you are proposing that AGI..is what exactly ?

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DRAM and to a lesser degree storage are notorious for their feast and famine cycles (Well that and collusion)

There are a lot of cyclical businesses that make money every year. It requires careful management. Factories can produce less than full capacity - but you better design for that. you can make money in the worst years without laying anyone off even - but it requires careful attention to details and not over hiring in good times as if they will never end.

the normal way to do that is by hiring/firing to meet demand, but in the fab business, you have 10s of billions of dollars of capex with relatively little opex. if you're running at <90% capacity, you're losing money.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#234
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Radeon VII came out in 2019 as a $700 consumer GPU with an 1TB/s HBM2 memory subsystem which is more than any consumer GPU you can get today, including the high-end ones afaik. At that point in time, there was a whole lineup of AMD GPUs with HBM going down into the midrange. If they could make this stuff and sell it to regular people a decade ago for very palatable prices, why do they come up with the idea that t…

> 1TB/s HBM2 memory subsystem which is more than any consumer GPU you can get today 5090 has 1.8 TB/s?

then it must be the case you can't get one (for a fair price?)

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No this is literally a sign of an unstable system with too high of a gain K. There is an alternative where legislation dampens this behavior but the short term profits will be lower. Hence the hawks don’t like it.

This is a wild take.

Sophomoric take more precisely.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#236

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

Do the memory makers not have a contract in place for an order this large? I assume that they aren't going to take "trust us bro" as good enough for several million dollars in orders, and even if there is a way to cancel the order it won't be free. I would assume so at least, but i would like if anyone knew for certain.

You can’t squeeze blood from a stone as they say. If AI companies go bankrupt there’s no money to be had.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#237
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t the memory makers always get left holding the bag? I feel this has happened at least three times before.

DRAM and to a lesser degree storage are notorious for their feast and famine cycles (Well that and collusion)

The problem in this case seems to have sprung from a lack of collusion. Altman reportedly approached Samsung and SK independently to strike deals for a large chunk of both companies' production. Neither party apparently knew he was negotiating with the other.

If they had actually been communicating or colluding with each other, they would have put the screws to him, making it harder for OpenAI to assert control over the vast majority of the DRAM market.

Failing that, you'd like to think a regulatory agency somewhere would step in to keep a single player from hosing everybody else, but...

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#238
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1TB/s HBM2 memory subsystem which is more than any consumer GPU you can get today 5090 has 1.8 TB/s?

then it must be the case you can't get one (for a fair price?)

Define "fair price"

5090s are certainly expensive compared to most other GPUs, but not expensive enough to be unobtanium for nearly any professional who could utilize one as part of their job

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#239
post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who has been projecting FTL as a realistic technology ever? FTL is not possible according to the current laws of Physics, while AGI is at least not forbidden by them.

We don't even know what human consciousness is. We can't even answer if we have free will or not. And you are proposing that AGI..is what exactly ?

> We don't even know what human consciousness is.

I think Douglas Hofstadter satisfactorily answered this question.

> We can't even answer if we have free will or not.

Sure we can, it's just that most people don't like the answer.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's actually plenty of demand for LPDDR even in the AI datacenter, because HBM is quite wasteful of area for any given memory capacity.

Wafer area?

Yes, HBM requires more wafer area for the TSVs and maybe some other features.
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