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Nowhere is safe

steveblank.com

231–240 of 329 posts

Re: Nowhere is safe

#231
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons for this is that the financial system - which is supposed to serve as a mechanism for representing value in a fungible way - does not assign value to many forms of structured, engineered creation. For instance, a high-performing team within an organization has value, held in the agreements and trusts between the people; organizations will destroy this in a second if it suits them because there is n…

Capitalism offers a means of dealing with the problem. Workers are free to start their own companies. People can just do things and don't need permission. Henry Ford himself started from nothing.

Makes you wonder why poor people don’t just start their own companies.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#232

Drones have upended the unit economics of combat and made older doctrines less relevant. Drones seem to combine the benefits of missiles level payloads, aircraft level control and ability to project force over a distance. I don’t see any technical way we can stop them - but it’s not like we stopped guns. The drone and LLM era are the end of many things we older folk are used to. The information commons are sunk with…

I dunno, seems to me that they're slow enough and fly low enough you could shoot them down with 50 cal ammo. The hard part is aiming and hitting them. But seems to me that someone could make a radar assisted point defense system that automatically aimed and fired a 50 cal gun, like automatic skeet shooting. Such a system would have limited range and could not hit very fast moving or high altitude targets, but would b…

Look into what Ukraine is doing, they are at the forefront of all this.

They already have the system you describe. The German one's with radars are expensive compared to the technicals aimed by soldiers. Neither has very large effective range and the drones do not fly straight paths. You'd need millions of them.

They are mass producing interceptor drones for a reason.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#233
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons for this is that the financial system - which is supposed to serve as a mechanism for representing value in a fungible way - does not assign value to many forms of structured, engineered creation. For instance, a high-performing team within an organization has value, held in the agreements and trusts between the people; organizations will destroy this in a second if it suits them because there is n…

Capitalism offers a means of dealing with the problem. Workers are free to start their own companies. People can just do things and don't need permission. Henry Ford himself started from nothing.

> Henry Ford himself started from nothing.

Relatively speaking, it would seem Ford was well enough off.

Born in 1863, given a pocket watch at 12 (1875), starting a company at age 40 after some years pottering about as an apprentice machinist before working on steam engines and other "advanced machines".

This is well above "having nothing" for those times - some decades earlier a pocket watch was an extremely high end highly valued prestige item - not so much so when Ford was given one at 12, but absolutely a signifier of "better than nothing"

Working on machines at that time was also a fairly prestige career path, well paid, in demand, not at all like being "just an auto mechanic" might be seen in the 1950s.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#234

The ridiculous AI slop image of troops posing around a TBM that's apparently just dug a tunnel several multiples its own diameter is a good illustration of how clueless the author is about tunneling. TBMs are hugely complicated and expensive machines, need vast amounts of materials and the associated logistics network to operate, and drill 200 to 700 meters per week depending on the terrain. Deploying and operating o…

I think he's right about covered tunnels though-- i.e. that a trench covered with concrete slabs can be built fast and provide useful protection.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#235

That's totally not the case. Asymmetry is that when the adversary starts doing it, US is politically and socially not allowed to reply in kind. For instance: ensuring they have no electricity makes it impossible to continue producing drones - knock out every power plant and grid transformer and conduct surveillance using IR cameras to find everything that resembles thermal power plant cooling, and knock it out as wel…

> ensuring they have no electricity makes it impossible to continue producing drones > political constraints prevents US from making appropriate use of air force Are you arguing that destroying a country of 90M's entire basic infrastructure is an "appropriate" use of force?

[flagged]

Re: Nowhere is safe

#236

Hmm... Interestingly one does not look at the solutions to de-escalate conflict. Despite the proxy wars we've had a relatively peaceful world since WW1/WW2. Please humor me here, I'm not saying the world is horror free. The emphasis I would hope would also be for improved negotiation tactics, better resource sharing and goal alignment between groups of people. Why is it that we can dream up more conflict but not peac…

Why do we insist on building cars to be safe in a collision when it would be so much nicer to not have accidents? Why do we build cancer treatment when not getting cancer is a much better option?

Re: Nowhere is safe

#237

I had this idea for a "drill" that I'd like to make someday. Basically it was a box with several tentacles snaking out of it. The tentacles would each have a drill on the end, and they would dig holes in a surface. These holes would be spaced apart and they would be on the outer edge of where the tunnel is meant to be. The silicon arms would be full of actuators that measured their resistance in terms of the momentum…

One thing is that “underground” is not a homogenous single thing. Sometimes it is loose water logged sand, or clay, or gravel, sometimes it is solid hard rock, sometimes it is large very hard pieces of fractured hard rock forming a loose rubble. Which kind of obstacle are you thinking when you are thinking of your method of digging? Based on your method description it sounds like you are thinking of loose soil with a few big rocks?

> The silicon arms would be full of actuators that measured their resistance in terms of the momentum they want plus the gravity weight of any nodes after them.

That sounds very complicated. Actuators are expensive. Actuators which are strong enough to drill through stone are even more so. Having many of them per arm and many arms per machine sounds very expensive and also a maintenance nightmare. Look at a real world tunnel boring machine: they have a cutting head rotated around by a single electric motor and hydraulic jacks to keep the cutting head pressed against the formation. It is conceptually simple, even though of course real world constraints make it complicated in practice. You are proposing to replace that conceptual simplicity with something much much more complicated. It is not clear what benefit you are hoping to achieve with the complexity you are thinking of.

> tunnels in every city on earth so we didn't have to destroy woodland to build suburban cities at such a gorgeous rate

How would that work in practice? Would people live in tunnels under a pristine forests? I’m not sure i understand your concept.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#238

I was also thinking about this and I think it has to go a step further: Assets don't just need to be underground, they need to be on mobile rails underground. They need to constantly be moveable and pop out of one of thousands of holes to attack or if it comes to defensive e.g SAM sites they need to be moveable so that when an incoming missile is not interceptable that it can simply move away to a different undergrou…

The cost of building all the tunnels is astronomical. Making tunnel boring cheap, fast, and resilient to different soil types + rock would also pay huge dividends for urban mass transport (subway lines).

[deleted]

Re: Nowhere is safe

#239
post #195

We have the prospect of AI destroying humanity and living life underground. It's more like The Matrix every day.

I maintain the position that people will chose to go into the matrix

With TikTok and co they already kinda did.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#240
post #195

We have the prospect of AI destroying humanity and living life underground. It's more like The Matrix every day.

Its not AI, its humanity itself. There is no AI, because none of those tools are actually autonomous. There no AI commenters here or anywhere, it is always humans causing that slop to be posted.

Anyway, this idea goes back to long before The Matrix, try H G Wells The War of the Worlds, ably voiced by David Essex and Richard Burton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcAwrLzhnzQ

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