Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset • Hacker News Board

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#231

Post by hax0ron3 » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC

idiotsecant wrote: post #217

hax0ron3 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with probably the majority of Trump's main policy ideas, but I think a strong case can be made that his immigration policies are in the country's best interests. Not all of them, but as a whole.

Immigrants are the lifeblood of America and always have been. Reject them and you lose what literally made America great. Do you think, on average, a native born American is more useful to America than one who moves here?

Currently, probably yes. If American immigration policy was reshaped to favor immigration of people from high-performing societies, then it would be the opposite.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#232

Post by AnthonyMouse » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 9:23 PM UTC

mothballed wrote: post #153

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a better way than that. The way the US tax system actually works is incredibly misleading: 1) We pretend to have an income tax but then make it work like a consumption tax in practice. Ordinary people put earnings in excess of spending in a 401k and defer the tax until they want to spend the money. Rich people defer capital gains indefinitely until they want to spend the money. It's an income tax on paper but…

The tax code is inefficient on purpose. A simple uniform system is politically infeasible, due to the fact our political system relies on pretending to give special favors to every tailored interest group individually (making the tax code even bigger every time). We arent at a loss of what to change to make it simpler/optimal. We're at a loss at how to make anyone proposing that not lose the election when everyone el…

That part of it doesn't seem like the problem. If you want to make a carve out for some group and you're using a consumption tax then you just don't tax that thing or lower the rate (with the cost of having to increase the general rate on everything else). This is occasionally even a good thing, e.g. have a higher tax rate on petroleum than other things to price the externality, or a lower rate on groceries because they're a necessity.

And many of the carve outs are stupid and we shouldn't do them, but that's a separate layer of complexity/inefficiency on top of the mess we get from trying to pretend that "progressive marginal rate structure" and "means testing government benefits" are useful things to have at the same time when they're the mathematical inverse of one another, or that we want an "income tax" even though we don't want the major disincentive for anyone to have savings or make productive investments rather than immediately spending all income on hedonistic consumption.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#233

Post by AngryData » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 9:36 PM UTC

fc417fc802 wrote: post #222

AngryData wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But at the same time the more money you make the less paying a bit extra to live where your friends and family are is really that big of a concern. Otherwise why are wealthy people living in and around big expensive cities when they can move to any number of other states and pay a fraction of the cost for housing and services. Many people are sitting on a decades worth of pay or more because they don't want to sell t…

I expect that cost of living as a percentage of income goes down even as absolute prices go up in most cases. Whereas the taxes we're talking about here go up. Your logic amounts to assuming you can significantly raise the price relative to other states on the basis that they already pay a bit more which I don't think follows. The degree is off but also the relative difference isn't there. Living in an expensive hous…

I don't buy it, we don't really see it on a smaller scale now despite the same incentives being in place on a smaller scale, in fact it is rare enough to warrant fearmongering news stories when it does happen and PR statements. Nobodies moving out of high tax countries to go live in Somalia without taxes. And if they do leave, then who is to say they can even maintain the same business relationship to the US? They either pay the taxes because the US taxes citizens even outside the US, or if they abandon their citizenship to avoid it then they become subject to the same costs and fines and restrictions as any other foreign persons and businesses.

I really don't really see much of any chance for downsides to 99.9% of the population, but plenty of upsides. If the only thing maintaining the US economy is a a small percentage of rich people sitting on stacks of capital, the US economy is already doomed and the people on top are just trying to be the last ones down into the water.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#234

Post by fc417fc802 » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 10:01 PM UTC

AngryData wrote: post #233

fc417fc802 wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect that cost of living as a percentage of income goes down even as absolute prices go up in most cases. Whereas the taxes we're talking about here go up. Your logic amounts to assuming you can significantly raise the price relative to other states on the basis that they already pay a bit more which I don't think follows. The degree is off but also the relative difference isn't there. Living in an expensive hous…

I don't buy it, we don't really see it on a smaller scale now despite the same incentives being in place on a smaller scale, in fact it is rare enough to warrant fearmongering news stories when it does happen and PR statements. Nobodies moving out of high tax countries to go live in Somalia without taxes. And if they do leave, then who is to say they can even maintain the same business relationship to the US? They ei…

We do see it though. But usually they hide the income overseas because that's more straightforward or cheaper or whatever. However there are several small island countries that are known for hosting ultra wealthy expats on very favorable terms. This isn't some hypothetical.

In the business world how many companies are just coincidentally booking all their revenue in Ireland?

I'm really not clear what point you're trying to argue here. Someone upthread suggested that a sense of community would prevent the disproportionately wealthy from relocating to nearby states to avoid higher taxes. I call bullshit, dependent on the size of the relative tax gap. They don't even have to sell their house, just purchase a second one and reside there more of the year.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#235

Post by mnicky » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 10:46 PM UTC

ETH_start wrote: post #220

AngryData wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As just an average US citizen living in a not so prosperous area, this rings pretty hollow to my mind and most of Europe sure looks like it is winning over 95% of the people that live around me. We already know the stock market is divorced from reality, IP rights are a short-term benefit, and I fail to see how having more compute or starlink satellites are suppose to carry the US into future economic prosperity. Now…

I'm not so sure people in Europe are better off. There are a lot of very poor regions in Europe compared to how people tend to imagine Europe. In fact, most European countries, if they were U.S. states, would rank among the poorer U.S. states. Now, looking only at the statistics, there are certainly some things European countries are doing better than the U.S. But based on my research so far, which admittedly isn't e…

Averages tell nothing about an average citizen.

Also, there are other measurements like inequality, healthcare cost, social securities...

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#236

Post by BobbyJo » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:01 PM UTC

lesuorac wrote: post #157

BobbyJo wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being a reserve currency puts a gun to your economy's head. It creates an asymmetry where domestic production of material goods has to jump a gap created by favorable exchange rates in PPP terms. Its great for the day to day life style of your citizens, as other economy's do indeed pay tribute, in a sense, to their consumption of goods produced overseas. However, being paid to do nothing becomes a real problem when t…

But why? If you just don't run a mega defict every year you can afford to use the interest other countries would have to pay you to borrow dollars to subsidize your own economy.

"the interest other countries would have to pay you..."

That's the problem, they don't have to, and they can choose not to.

The fiscal deficit is a whole separate matter, but I think it is a downstream effect of the kind of policies and economy that develop when you run a huge trade deficit selling your currency for goods and services.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#237

Post by mnicky » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:02 PM UTC

jasomill wrote: post #126

themafia wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's far easier to change a state government than it is the federal government. The states used to be able to recall Senators if they failed to do their jobs correctly; as determined by the elected body within the state. It's simply a single level indirection of Democracy. The House of Representatives is direct. This was intentional. What's "indefensible" about this? And you can amend how the body is elected; hell, y…

For that matter, you could amend the Constitution to change the process for amending the Constitution, even to eliminate the possibility of future amendments altogether.

This might be unconstitutional?

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#238

Post by BobbyJo » Sat, Apr 04, 2026, 11:03 PM UTC

watwut wrote: post #114

BobbyJo wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Some abstract quasi moralistic reason that things should be tougher so we compete harder feels a little out of touch. I don't see how any of those descriptions fit what I've said. Also, note, things should indeed not be tougher. A consequence of our economy being so focused on financialization of overseas productivity is that the wealth created from that activity tends to be much more concentrated than that produce…

Bessent is great example of sycophantic photogenic personality. He knows he is lying and he knows he is harming the economy and people in it. But, that does not matter to him.

I'd rather he stroke Trump's ego and stay in the room, than lose his ability to help the American people.

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#239

Post by CGMthrowaway » Sun, Apr 05, 2026, 12:09 AM UTC

aloha2436 wrote: post #26

America was in practice running an empire that collected tribute from the rest of planet earth in exchange for entries in a database denominated in a currency they controlled and that was accepted everywhere. Really the only way it could go wrong is putting it under the control of someone who doesn't understand the kayfabe...

Scott Bessent is literally the guy who broke the pound, I think he understands

Re: Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the largest foreign reserve asset

#240

Post by dpb001 » Sun, Apr 05, 2026, 12:18 AM UTC

therobots927 wrote: post #188

dpb001 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The union of states arrangement has the side effect of putting the states in competition with each other for things like new/expanding businesses and residents. It's relatively easy to relocate (or even remain in a state while legally "residing" elsewhere). So there are diminishing returns to raising the tax rates significantly on the upper brackets at the state level. I'm not a believer in the trickle down theory bu…

That’s never been proven. The blue states re the most objectively desirable states to live in with maybe the exception of Idaho and Wyoming and Florida. Blue states have more leverage than they apply.

I’m a blue state resident and will not argue the point about overall quality of life. But a quick look at net inflow/outflow rankings by state show there’s already a migration in the red state direction. There are many factors involved, but the cost of living is certainly one. Taxes are a large component of the cost of living. Increasing them on a segment of the population that has the resources to move elsewhere can only result in some additional migration. Whether that results in a net loss of tax revenue remains to be seen.