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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#231

Post by paxys »

stickfigure wrote: post #74
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

Serious question: Is there some ETF that is "Index of S&P500 minus anything that smells like Musk"?

Direct indexing is pretty easy these days.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#232

Post by ensen »

tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

is there an article or document covering the value proposition and realistic timeline of Mars colonization available to read somewhere ? i certainly think it's good for humanity to do it but as a casual observer i imagine it will cost a lot of money over the next ~20 years as opposed to making any.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#233

Post by paxys »

tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

I believe there's a 0% chance SpaceX will achieve any of this, at least in my lifetime.

I however also believe that enough people will be lining up to buy whatever fantasy Musk sells (look at the Tesla stock as a shining example).

So I think SpaceX is still going to be a great investment if you can manage to get it at or below IPO price.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#234

Post by daveguy »

tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

Good to know. So if you're in the majority and figured out Musk is full of shit, don't invest.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#235

Post by projektfu »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #157
projektfu wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$16B is the top line gross revenue number. You don't count R&D as an expense per GAAP, so... They have claimed $8B in EBITDA, also leaving out the amortization of R&D costs. Those aren't audited numbers, as far as I know.

[flagged]

Good to know.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#236

Post by paxys »

bmau5 wrote: post #123
convexly wrote: post #120

I'm genuinely waiting to see at what the valuation lands at. The gap between what SpaceX charges per launch and what everyone else charges is so wide that the moat basically is the rocket. Hard to compare against anything even now.

Valuations are always more of an art than a science but in what world is SpaceX worth more than Meta today? Maybe the $1.75T is to find that world.

In the same world where Tesla is worth more than every other automaker in the world combined.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#237

Post by antonvs »

sroussey wrote: post #149
TheAlchemist wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

Just call it what it is: SpaceTwitter

SpaceXitter

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#238

Post by paxys »

It is insane to think that this year multiple "startups" are going to IPO at valuations greater than that of the largest company in the world in ~2018. We have printed so much money in that period that these numbers have completely lost touch with reality.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#239

Post by tim333 »

manquer wrote: post #50
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

>float a fairly small issuance SpaceX are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem small a % for the valuation target. However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1] There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling int…

>There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade.

It's very different from WeWork which was basically just subletting office space with beer taps. At least SpaceX had done significant stuff with the rockets and Starlink.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#240

Post by vjvjvjvjghv »

tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

"I personally believe SpaceX has a 70% chance of achieving its Mars ambitions."

When will that be? There are so many unsolved problems with Mars that creating a civilization on Mars will probably be decades or centuries away. Creating an autonomous station on Antarctica or the moon is child's play compared to Mars. And we are far away from that too.

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