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AI coding is gambling

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Re: AI coding is gambling

#231

Post by manmal »

itsgrimetime wrote: post #92

All of this new capability has made me realize that the reason i love programming _isn't_ the same as the OP. I used to think (and tell others) that I loved understanding something deeply, wading through the details to figure out a tough problem. but actually, being able to will anything I can think of into existence is what I love about programming. I do feel for the people who were able to make careers out of falli…

I've felt this exact same way until very recently. But in the end, it's slop that never quite does what it's supposed to. Anthropic is proud of themselves that they brute-forced the world's crappiest C compiler into existence. Guess what, nobody will use it.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#233

Post by markhahn »

dzink wrote: post #82

It’s variable rewards and even with large models the same question can lead to dramatically different answers. Possibly because they route your request through different models. Possibly because the model has more time to dig through the problem. Nonetheless we have some illusion of control over the output (you we wouldn’t be playing it) but it is just the quality of the model itself that leads to better outcomes - n…

This (variable rewards -> gambling, illusion of control) is really important.

I'm not an expert in the psych/neuro literature on addiction, but I suspect latency isn't that critical. But is that just because it's things like fruit-machines that have been studied? Gambling (poker, racehorses) are quite long-latency. OTOH, scrolling is closer to 400ms, and that's certainly the modern addition...

Re: AI coding is gambling

#234

Post by rsoto2 »

CraftingLinks wrote: post #30

I see whole teams pushed by c- level going full in with spec driven + tdd development. The devs hate it because they are literally forbidden to touch a single line if code. but the results speak for themselves, it just works and the pressure has shifted to the product people to keep up. The whole tooling to enable this had to be worked out first. All Cursor and extreme use of a tool called Speckit, connected to Notio…

yeah i'm not gonna be an AI company's guinea pig just because the c-suite wants to sign me up. "the results" you mean AI-psychosis and dunning-kruger syndrome?

Re: AI coding is gambling

#235

Post by wolandomny »

Obviously the following isn't a completely original take, but it's worth stating that AI coding is just a fundamentally different job than "traditional" or "manual" coding. The previous job was to spec something out to a comfortable degree without spending all of your time on a spec when there are so many unknowns that will come up during the engineering stage. Then, the job was to engineer at a snail's pace (compared to today) and adjust the spec.

Now, the job is to nail the spec and test HARD against that spec. Let the AI develop it and question it along the way to make sure it's not repeating itself all over the place (even this I'm sure is super necessary anymore...). Find a process that helps you feel comfortable doing this and you can get the engineering part done at lightning speed.

Both jobs are scary in different ways. I find this way more fun, however.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#236

Post by vermilingua »

Not only is it gambling, it has the full force of the industry that built the attention market behind it. I find it extremely hard to believe that these tools have not been optimised to keep developers prompting the same way tiktok keeps people scrolling.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#237

Post by NewsaHackO »

munk-a wrote: post #204
NewsaHackO wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I agree with you, but I think the GP may have mispoke and meant he loves building software. It's sort of like the difference between knitting and making clothes. The GP likely loves making clothes on an abstract basis and realized that he won't have to knit anymore to do so. And he really never liked knitting in the first place, as it was just a means to an end.

Most people who are knitting do it purely for the experience of knitting. If you need clothes it's far more affordable to buy the cheap manufactured stuff. Some people certainly enjoy the creativity of expression and wish they could get to that easier - but most of those people have moved away from manual tasks like knitting and instead just draw or render their imagination. There's genuine value in making things by…

I think you misunderstood my post. Now many people do knitting for the joy of knitting, but people used to knit to create clothing to wear or to sell. Of course, automated knitting machines have largely replaced hand knitting, and people now still do it. If you are very good at hand knitting, you might see if you can sell some work. However, if you want to make knitted clothing at scale, you would be better served taking a high-level approach to the actual design of the clothing and learning how to prompt the automated knitting machine to do so instead of optimizing for how you yourself would hand knit it.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#238

Post by munk-a »

m00x wrote: post #127
watzon wrote: post #110

I think this article makes a valid point. However, if AI coding is considered gambling, then being a project manager overseeing multiple developers could also be seen as a form of gambling to a certain degree. In reality, there isn't much difference between the two. AI models are non-deterministic, and humans are also non-deterministic. You could assign the same task to two different developers and end up with entire…

AI coding is gambling on slot machines, managing developers is betting on race horses.

Would it make us uncomfortable to reword the above example to

> AI coding is gambling on slot machines, managing developers is gambling on the stock market.

Because I feel like that is a much more apt analogy.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#240

Post by mpalmer »

I do not think "AI coding" - as distinct from the human who drives it - is gambling. More like a delayed footgun for the uneducated. I don't mean that disparagingly, but I do mean it literally.

    I’ve certainly been spending more time coding. But is it because it’s making me more efficient and smarter or is it because I’m just gambling on what I want to see?
Is this really a difficult question to answer for oneself? If you can't tell if you're learning anything, or getting more confident describing what you want, I would suggest that you cannot be thinking that deeply about the code you're producing.

    Am I just pulling the lever until I reach jackpot?
And even then, will you know you've won?

At the very least, a gambler knows when they have hit jackpot. Here, you start off assuming you've won the jackpot every time, and maybe there'll be an unpleasant surprise down the line. Maybe that's still gambling, but it's pretty backwards.

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