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OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

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Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#231

Post by KellyCriterion »

phist_mcgee wrote: post #221
KellyCriterion wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find -again- Claude (web) here outstanding & very comfortable: In most of my discussions throughout the day, it doesnt ask any "follow up" questions at the end. Very often it says thingslike: "you have two options: A - ..... and B - while the one includes X and the other Y..." But this is was OP underlined: Claude is popular amongst businesses, most "non-tech" people dont even know that it exists.

Don't worry, claude will follow soon enough. It's not like anthropic faces different financial pressures than openai.

In case of Anthropic I just expect them to raise prices sky-high :-D

What would be the price at which you would stop subscribing? Im in tech, so I would willing to pay around up to 100 - 120 USd per month, Id guess (Im currently onthe 20 USD plan, which is supercheap and contains enough tokens currently)

But most private users ("at home") would not pay 100 USD+ per month? Spotify is around ~ 240/250 USD per year

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#232

Post by paganel »

bandrami wrote: post #227
newsclues wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless the play is the fleece retail investors

That would have worked better a month ago. The money is drying up. And the Gulf money is gone for the next 3 quarters in the best case.

Judging by what has happened last night with Qatar's LNG installations I'd say at leat the next 3 years. Unless the war were to stop right at this moment, but slim chances for that.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#233

Post by paganel »

MeetingsBrowser wrote: post #65
jrjeksjd8d wrote: post #44

The quoted revenue numbers seem insane, but I guess it's the result of corporate deals where every developer seat is hundreds of dollars a month? My job has been publicly promoting who's on top of the "AI use dashboard" while our whole product falls apart. Surely this house of cards has to collapse at some point, better get public money before it does.

At least I’m not alone. My company has a vibe coded leaderboard tracking AI usage. Our token usage and number of lines changed will affect our performance review this year.

> Our token usage and number of lines changed will affect our performance review this year.

I'm going nuts, because as I was "growing up" as a programmer (that was 20+ years ago) it was stuff like this [1] that made me (and people like me) proud to be called a computer programmer. Copy-pasting it in here, for future reference, and because things have turned out so bleak:

> They devised a form that each engineer was required to submit every Friday, which included a field for the number of lines of code that were written that week. (...)

> Bill Atkinson, the author of Quickdraw and the main user interface designer, who was by far the most important Lisa implementer, thought that lines of code was a silly measure of software productivity. He thought his goal was to write as small and fast a program as possible, and that the lines of code metric only encouraged writing sloppy, bloated, broken code. (...)

> He was just putting the finishing touches on the optimization when it was time to fill out the management form for the first time. When he got to the lines of code part, he thought about it for a second, and then wrote in the number: -2000.

[1] https://www.folklore.org/Negative_2000_Lines_Of_Code.html

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#234

Post by edgyquant »

smcin wrote: post #209
throwaway27448 wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this supposed to imply? You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Well, I suppose you can draw the conclusion that "polymarket customers are interested in this topic"

That Polymarket traders believe an OpenAI IPO this quarter, or even this year, is unlikely (or else almost all of them are hedging, e.g. long on other AI stocks. Which seems unlikely.) Anyone who thinks that position is wrong and it's >4% likely has a clear profit opportunity.

Not everyone is a degenerate gambler

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#235

Post by dannyfritz07 »

sireat wrote: post #100

The latest clickbait style can be mitigated by custom instructions. I use: "Tell it like it is; don't sugar-coat responses. Use academic university level explanations unless instructed otherwise. Do not end with teaser offers or curiosity hooks. Give the full answer immediately. If related topics exist, show them as a brief bullet list. Use professional language and style." Now I actually often like the related topic…

Hey. That's curiously similar to my instructions. Weird!

"Tell it like it is; don't sugar-coat responses. No em-dashes. Academic tone. Please do not go into detail unless asked to. Provide links for more information at the end. I am a software developer that uses Linux and GrapheneOS. I read Wikipedia, studies, and white papers to make decisions. I appreciate cited figures and facts from trusted sources."

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#236

Post by lelanthran »

throwaway27448 wrote: post #203
smcin wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common). https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by

What is this supposed to imply? You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Well, I suppose you can draw the conclusion that "polymarket customers are interested in this topic"

> What is this supposed to imply?

Wisdom of the crowd, same as guessing jellybeans in a jar. The exact average is wrong, but it's still pretty damn close because the guesses are likely to follow a normal distribution.

If the hump of the normal distribution of these guesses is around 4% (or whatever) odds on, the actual answer is unlikely to be far from that.

> You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why.

Irrelevant; Polymarket is the reflection of the bettors view. When they place their bets, they don't care which way this goes, they only care to predict the direction correctly.

Unfortunately, it could be a case of the tail wagging the dog - even if the IPO would have been successful without polymarket existing, now that they have a signal from polymarket it is likely to be used as one of the weightings when they determine the correct time to IPO.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#237

Post by prasadjoglekar »

cmiles8 wrote: post #15

There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed. I just don’t see investors willing to jump in here given all the questions about the financial viability of AI. The bulk of those investing now are broadly just pumping cash into the fire to keep their prior investments from going to zero. We have hit a mass deceleration of what the current tech can do with transformers. The tech is also on a path to hyper-commoditiz…

The revenue is in the ads. If they hit a decent run rate prior to the IPO then there's a viable path to profitablity and justification for the insane capex.

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#238

Post by lelanthran »

CursedSilicon wrote: post #84
surgical_fire wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Hey uh. Slurs aren't cool. You could've just as easily said "investors are morons" and had the same connotations without disparaging a group of people

> You could've just as easily said "investors are morons"

A distinction without a difference. They mean the same thing.

When "moron" started getting used as a slur, "retarded" was introduced. When "retarded" got used as a slur, "mentally challenged" was introduced.

Now that "mentally challenged" is being used as a slur, there'll soon be a replacement along .

Re: OpenAI Has New Focus (on the IPO)

#240

Post by mcintyre1994 »

throwaway27448 wrote: post #203
smcin wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common). https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by

What is this supposed to imply? You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Well, I suppose you can draw the conclusion that "polymarket customers are interested in this topic"

It only has $1m volume, so even that conclusion is a bit of a stretch. By comparison NCAA tournament has $15m, and US confirms aliens this year has $18m.
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