231–240 of 249 posts
The economy is going to go into a deep recession for years with the current economic environment. There will be nobody left to spend money, just increasing corporate and ultra high wealth spend. The rest will be left with food and water. We are destroying currently valuable jobs to allocate resources to electricity and silicon, concentrating wealth into 10 companies pockets. I don't know what comes after, but when yo…
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You need to tighten up before you call someone a liar. Manchester is the poster child city for the industrial revolution. The blacksmith moving to Manchester had a lower lifespan/quality of life, it's not in question or up for debate. He is who we will be in the AI disruption, not the person in 1950. https://www.scienceandindustrymuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stor... https://healthinnovationmanchester.com/cottonopolis-to…
> Manchester is the poster child city for the industrial revolution. Which is to say, you cherry picked the data rather than looking at aggregates. Manchester industrialization being terribly managed isn't an indictment of steel machining or electrification, it means the government fucked up. What you are claiming (that the industrial revolution led to lower quality of life generally) is simply false, period. And it…
I picked THE Industrial Revolution city. THE CITY where it all happened. Did your high school not have a history class? I picked where it went wrong, the first go live site. That's what you do for analyzing things. You don't pick go live 500. That isn't cherry picking, that's what we do when we discuss scenarios that INITIALLY came up so they don't happen again. We don't just whitewash like you would like.
I claimed the industrial revolution led to lower quality of life for the blacksmith. The modern narrative when talking about AI implies they just turned into 1950s style suburbanites and waives away any thought/planning/discussion like you are trying to do. The reality, as it factually happened, was a much worse life and it is worth considering when implementing something that could be just as impactful.
People like you want to just handwave away the inconvenient fact that I am more likely to be the blacksmith in Manchester than to be born in some post-work AI Utopia that may exist in 70 years after things settle. why can't we even discuss this? Why do we have to stumble blindly into it, to the point you call me a liar/cherry picker for pointing out basic history taught in high school and basic root cause analysis concepts?
The reason that Manchester is taught about in American high schools is so that we learn from it and we understand our current world didn't just magically happen. Good and bad happened along the way, and that we have to work within that reality. Good can come in the end, be positive IF progress IS being made. Bad will happen, fix it don't just accept it, challenge it. Think about it. Look to history to prevent the easy things to prevent.
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No. At a national security level, the department of defense has already war-gamed mass unemployment. The defense sector would already have projected when the unemployment would happen and at what rate, I’m saying this to imply they had AI and judged its trajectory rather quickly awhile ago. Data centers WILL happen, mass unemployment WILL happen, simply because, smarter people made it, assessed it, cannot deny it, an…
Who will make use of all the servers in the data centers when very few people have any disposable income? Edit: and how will these data centers be protected from people rioting against them because they can't afford bread?
Bread and refreshments will be provided, borders will be closed. Planning will be around de-population, naturally, aging will take care of it. Then the economy will settle into what America really needs to become, a small European nation with nukes.
:) Cheers.
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I heard this canard my entire life. It’s been said for centuries. If you want maximum employment pass a law that says all grass must be cut with scissors. Otherwise let productivity gains diffuse out - that’s the only way to increase true wealth
You need to explain, from a systems point of view _why_ the gains must diffuse out as you suggest. We have analogs we can compare to: massive wealth injections through a natural resource such as oil. Now what happens to that wealth is not obvious; for some countries it's a curse with radical inequality and pernicious and robust power structures, in fewer it has been bestowed to the heritage of the people (think Norwa…
Late 18th century France has a historical point of view as to why the gains will diffuse out if the median person has no food.
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> Manchester is the poster child city for the industrial revolution. Which is to say, you cherry picked the data rather than looking at aggregates. Manchester industrialization being terribly managed isn't an indictment of steel machining or electrification, it means the government fucked up. What you are claiming (that the industrial revolution led to lower quality of life generally) is simply false, period. And it…
Oh look, I didn't lie. No apology? Nope, just more attacks. I picked THE Industrial Revolution city. THE CITY where it all happened. Did your high school not have a history class? I picked where it went wrong, the first go live site. That's what you do for analyzing things. You don't pick go live 500. That isn't cherry picking, that's what we do when we discuss scenarios that INITIALLY came up so they don't happen ag…
And all the same logic applies to AI. Do we need to be willing to re-regulate and adjust as this is deployed? Almost certainly. Will it make us all wealthier? Undeniably.
And, with this, the economic contagion begins. Before this step, we had non-existent money loaned to build datacenters powered by non-existent power infrastructure to support future load that will never exist, with guaranteed revenue from companies that do not, and will never be able to pay. Previously, this was propped up with circular revenue and investment. Now it's going to be propped up by dismantling the US tec…
We will look back on this AI bubble 10 years later and see that alongside with the private credit market, the funding of data centers via dubious methods (circular financing, billions of dollars of loans / debt) on top of mass layoffs for the sake of so-called "AGI" to cover up the massive losses will cause a market crash beyond the tech industry. It just takes a single surprise to shock the market into chaos. My tim…
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Of course they are. I’m not an insider so I wouldn’t know the specifics.
I guess what's the downside though to getting into the game now and gaining users since they have loads of real cash anyways and a crash wouldn't really hurt them?
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Oh look, I didn't lie. No apology? Nope, just more attacks. I picked THE Industrial Revolution city. THE CITY where it all happened. Did your high school not have a history class? I picked where it went wrong, the first go live site. That's what you do for analyzing things. You don't pick go live 500. That isn't cherry picking, that's what we do when we discuss scenarios that INITIALLY came up so they don't happen ag…
Just stop. Your ability to show a handful of negative externalities from industrialization doesn't invalidate the progress of the last century and a half, and to argue so (as you clearly did) is laughable. And all the same logic applies to AI. Do we need to be willing to re-regulate and adjust as this is deployed? Almost certainly. Will it make us all wealthier? Undeniably.
You didn't know basic level history, called me liar, then a cherry picker for using the gold standard example.
You might want to check yourself before you tell people to stop, call them liars, cherry pickers, or make claims. No need to mis-represent me. My point is that 70 years of upheaval prior to the modern version of the world get ignored in the discussion. My point is that original people impacted, the proverbial blacksmith or buggy whip maker that 'adapted' had worse, shorter lives because of adapting.