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The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

cnn.com

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Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#231

Post by pseingatl »

concinds wrote: post #170
TheAlchemist wrote: post #105

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

No it's not. This is an air strike campaign, no boots on the ground. It'll end in two weeks. There is no chance China or Russia get involved, like last time, so "WW3" is completely non-credible.

Bombing never wins wars, with one exception.

bombing of: -N.Vietnam -Germany -Serbia -Sudan -Tunisia -England

Exception:

-Japan

That is not to say bombing doesn't have its uses in war. The bombing of the oilfields of Ploesti in Romania severely damaged the German war machine. But it took Russian boots on the ground in Berlin to effect a German surrender.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#233

Post by riffraff »

flyinglizard wrote: post #43
riffraff wrote: post #14

well, they were one week away from a nuke, as usual.

The concept of nuclear brinkmanship is part of accepted WMD doctrine. A country can maintain a fixed short interval away from weaponization for decades. It is widely accepted that Iran does have a military nuclear program; the amount of material enriched, the enrichment level achieved and the hardening of the involved facilities are an open testament to that (there are many other intelligence signals that we are not…

I think you're missing the point: a constant justification for bombing Iran is that they are one month, one week, or a couple months from building a nuclear bomb.

If that was true, obviously they would have built one buy now. Being one year away from building would be non-urgency inducing.

The constant lying about timelines does not imply Iran does not enrich uranium, but, as you remember, after the last bombing the leaders of the USA and Israel said they had completely obliterated Iran's nuclear program. Except, apparently After six months they are one week away from a nuke again.

This seems to indicate the USA should be bombing Iran every few weeks, forever, just in case they get a bit faster next time.

Except, when we don't have any scandal or other crisis going on, then Iran does not seem to be getting a nuke quickly. I wonder why.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#234

Post by bawolff »

dmos62 wrote: post #199
TheAlchemist wrote: post #105

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

> This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Russia-Ukraine war is 1M+ combat casualties deep and is nowhere near finished. You are out of touch.

But russia-ukraine is also a much more contained war between 2 parties that will likely end in a stalemate.

The middle east is a much more tangled web of alliances and hatreds, i think the iranian regime falling would have much more harder to predict second order geopolitical effects.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#235

Post by karim79 »

I can't help but think that all this shit is because Netanyahu really wants to put off more court hearings on his lame ass corruption charges. I really can't wait for him and his cronies (in Israel, and the West) to be brought to justice.

Without having to wait for the history books to do their thing.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#236

Post by viking123 »

apexalpha wrote: post #211

While I have no love for the Iranian regime I fear this will end up like the 'liberation' of Iraq: A massive power vacuum in an unstable Islamic regime. What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran?

The place has 90 million people, how do you even deal with this without throwing the whole place into chaos?

Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore, the global south will resent us more than ever. If other countries go to aggressive wars, our condemnation is worthless.

Trump is completely compromised and it was probably the powers that be who told them that this is how it is going to be.

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#238

Post by viking123 »

weatherlite wrote: post #64
athrowaway3z wrote: post #41

I have to wonder how much of this is driven by Israel accounting for the risk of less favorable US relationship in the future. Pre-emptive violence; not even justified with a narrative of escalating threat. Bleak for anybody who knows their history.

It was Trump or his immediate environmetn who asked Israeli to attack Iran first (better optics); Israel would have never done this without American approval. Did Israel want this to happen though ? Yes. But so did the Americans. I guess the negotiations went badly.

"Negotiations"

Re: The United States and Israel have launched a major attack on Iran

#239

Post by altern8 »

apexalpha wrote: post #211

While I have no love for the Iranian regime I fear this will end up like the 'liberation' of Iraq: A massive power vacuum in an unstable Islamic regime. What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran?

What does it mean "fail"?

What is the goal, to overthrow the regime, so success would mean a change of government?

(sorry, I haven't followed)

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