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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#231

Post by don_esteban »

ponector wrote: post #129
neocron wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then what, become a part of China? I don't think Russia could defend themselves from an attack of a lesser nation right now, and I truly wish one of them would take opportunity

China doesn't need to attach Russia. Just close the borders for all trade and Russia will implode within a year.

Why would China do that?

They know they are next on the chopping block.

They need Russia to guard their back, the last thing they need is a USA-friendly regime in Russia.

You are all talking about 'just a bit longer and Russia will implode'. Look at the state of Ukraine, who is going to implode sooner, Russia or Ukraine?

Heck, look at the state of Europe and USA! USA is a political nutcase, and Europe has deep divisions and is overflowing with incompetence and impotence. Plus enormous debts, both in USA and in Europe.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#232

Post by don_esteban »

fatbird wrote: post #148
mdavid626 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.

Every day that passes, Ukraine gets stronger: more domestic defense production of what's currently the cutting edge of warfare; deeper financial integration and relationships with Europe; more aid lined up; European powers taking more responsibility for supporting Ukraine and seeing it win, not just survive. They have the largest and most competent army in Europe that's fought Russia to a standstill. Every day that p…

Can I have the good stuff you are smoking?

Ukraine domestic defense production has the slight problem of being continuously bombed, lacking manpower, reliable (or any!) electricity. Are you sure it is growing? Perhaps explosively...

Their largest and most competent army is mostly dead and maimed, they rely on catching unwilling men on the streets and herding them to the front. You believe 35k Russian casualties each month, and at the same time you believe Ukrainian official figures of 55k casualties overall, right?

European powers taking responsibility for supporting Ukraine by continuously arguing where/how should they get emergency funds to 'lend' to Ukraine, so its finances do not collapse within the next 2 month.

Man, how can you believe this nonsense?

Time does not favour Ukraine. It does not favour Russia (or Europe) either, it favours mostly China.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#233

Post by don_esteban »

phicoh wrote: post #31
chowells wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with no firsthand knowledge at all, I am inclined to believe your position is correct. But I also think the Economist is making an important point: Russia's continued prosecution of this war will shred their internal economy with consequences lasting for decades or centuries. What people often underestimate is just how much damage an economy can suffer before breaking down entirely. But Putin doesn't care…

The EU is rich enough to support Ukraine for a very long time. During that time it is likely that Ukraine develops better and better weapons. This requires Russian army to improve as well. It's not clear how the Russian army will improve when the economy declines.

The EU as a whole is rich enough, the problem is that its the elites that are rich, not the ordinary citizens. However, the burden of support (via taxes and cutting welfare) will be places on ordinary citizens. Hence, the need to flame the war rhetoric. Still, there is no real support for forever war among EU citizenry.

Even if there is enough support for economic/material support of Ukraine, the matter of sending your man to die on the eastern front is an altogether different matter. Even Poland is not willing to do that. I mean, 'I am afraid of dying in a war, so I better go die in a war, to prevent that.'

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#234

Post by TiredOfLife »

drysine wrote: post #195
TiredOfLife wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already ceded huge amount of land in 2014. And 8 years later russia invaded again.

No, the Ukraine didn't cede anything. They cut water and electricity to Crimea to punish Crimeans and they were building up the army with Western help.

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this site is now dumber for having read it.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#235

Post by don_esteban »

tim333 wrote: post #225
Haven880 wrote: post #160

The only way is just to cede the land and move on. Keep the people alive. 100 years later one can renegotiate. This kind of copium hope wishing the economy collapse or something like Mongol collapse is just not practical. The longer this drag on, the lesser fertile men exist in Ukraine and the population recovery will take even longer while Russian outbirth in the long run. Sometime to win one has to abide by time. J…

They don't just want land though. They want 'denazification' which means overthrowing the government and making it like Belarus or Bucha. I think the way is to support Ukraine to win rather than the 'escalation management' of Biden or the taking bribes to pressure Ukraine to surrender of Trump. They are not doing so badly recently. 200 sq km taken back last week.

Re: I think the way is to support Ukraine to win

Nice in theory, now put that in practice.

Care to share how to achieve that? Especially since Ukraine is running low on men.

Should we (the West) send men to fight in Ukraine? What else would make a difference? Do we really want WW3?

Ukraine is not doing great. Selective news selection, notwithstanding. They did occupy some territory in Kursk, did not help them much in the long run either.

'Denazification' means 'regime change', the western standard. Its just that the US is much better at it.

We view Belarus as a total vassal of Putin. Still, there were/are no Belarusian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. That could not have been said about e.g. European soldiers in Afghanistan, or UK soldiers in Iraq.

We keep insisting on Ukraine in NATO ... well, now it is not sure thing there will be a meaningful NATO around by the time the Ukraine war ends.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#236

Post by don_esteban »

TiredOfLife wrote: post #234
drysine wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the Ukraine didn't cede anything. They cut water and electricity to Crimea to punish Crimeans and they were building up the army with Western help.

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this site is now dumber for having read it.

Care to substantiate your rambling incoherent response?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#237

Post by benterix »

pandaman wrote: post #217
benterix wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, as Reshetnikov says, Russia's economy will continue to slow down in the first half of 2026. The prices will continue to increase, soldiers will continue to die in thousands. India announced they will not buy Russian oil, so the only major buyer will be China, driving the price even further down. I have several friends in Russia, and I do wish them well, but it will be difficult to get back to normal as long as Pu…

> India announced they will not buy Russian oil I am not sure where did you get this, there is no such announcement publicly available. > but it will be difficult to get back to normal as long as Putin is alive There won't be a return to the 1990s-2000s subservient state, which you seem to be calling "normal". Whomever comes to replace Putin is going to be way more nationalist than the guy who spent more than half of…

> 1990s-2000s subservient state, which you seem to be calling "normal".

No need to go that far, I visited Moscow a few times before 2014 and it was more or less fine. I'd say 2 decades behind the West but OK. What is now is a big mess with Russia being an international pariah. This is bad and also unfair to millions of people who don't care about imperialistic ambitions of Putin and just want to live their lives in peace.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#238

Post by [deleted] »

don_esteban wrote: post #235
tim333 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't just want land though. They want 'denazification' which means overthrowing the government and making it like Belarus or Bucha. I think the way is to support Ukraine to win rather than the 'escalation management' of Biden or the taking bribes to pressure Ukraine to surrender of Trump. They are not doing so badly recently. 200 sq km taken back last week.

Re: I think the way is to support Ukraine to win Nice in theory, now put that in practice. Care to share how to achieve that? Especially since Ukraine is running low on men. Should we (the West) send men to fight in Ukraine? What else would make a difference? Do we really want WW3? Ukraine is not doing great. Selective news selection, notwithstanding. They did occupy some territory in Kursk, did not help them much in…

[deleted]

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#239

Post by [deleted] »

don_esteban wrote: post #235
tim333 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't just want land though. They want 'denazification' which means overthrowing the government and making it like Belarus or Bucha. I think the way is to support Ukraine to win rather than the 'escalation management' of Biden or the taking bribes to pressure Ukraine to surrender of Trump. They are not doing so badly recently. 200 sq km taken back last week.

Re: I think the way is to support Ukraine to win Nice in theory, now put that in practice. Care to share how to achieve that? Especially since Ukraine is running low on men. Should we (the West) send men to fight in Ukraine? What else would make a difference? Do we really want WW3? Ukraine is not doing great. Selective news selection, notwithstanding. They did occupy some territory in Kursk, did not help them much in…

[deleted]

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#240

Post by fatbird »

don_esteban wrote: post #232
fatbird wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every day that passes, Ukraine gets stronger: more domestic defense production of what's currently the cutting edge of warfare; deeper financial integration and relationships with Europe; more aid lined up; European powers taking more responsibility for supporting Ukraine and seeing it win, not just survive. They have the largest and most competent army in Europe that's fought Russia to a standstill. Every day that p…

Can I have the good stuff you are smoking? Ukraine domestic defense production has the slight problem of being continuously bombed, lacking manpower, reliable (or any!) electricity. Are you sure it is growing? Perhaps explosively... Their largest and most competent army is mostly dead and maimed, they rely on catching unwilling men on the streets and herding them to the front. You believe 35k Russian casualties each…

It produces its own Neptune cruise missiles (100+), and developed the Flamingo cruise missile. It has its own self-propelled howitzer, and has built more than 200 to date. It rebuilt its bullet manufacturing, replacing the loss of its luhansk facility. They've massively expanded domestic production of 155mm shells.

Whether or not it's under constant bombardment, Ukraine is now supplying 50% of its consumable supplies; in 2022, it was under 5%. Ukraine actually exports some weapons and drone tech to finance other purchases.

Its manpower crisis has been continually overstated by Russian propaganda. At the moment, they have 800k+ in their army. They rejected a bill recently to lower the conscription age to 25 from 27. They have an untapped pool of manpower aged 18-27 that they're avoiding if possible (as has been possible so far).

Whether or not Europeans are arguing a lot, they're still providing massive material and financial aid to Ukraine, which still has a functioning economy and social welfare system. Their gov't pensions go out on time and in full. They're not experiencing hyperinflation. There's a reason that Ukrainians as a population aren't willing to accept the kind of crap settlements Trump is pushing.

> Man, how can you believe this nonsense?

You're the one spouting Russian disinformation, especially after looking at your other comments. If you're not getting paid for this, you should be.

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