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Why I don't think AGI is imminent

dlants.me

231–240 of 313 posts

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay. So software engineers are vastly more efficient. Good I guess. "Revolutionize the entire world such that we rethink society down to its very basics like money and ownership" doesn't follow from that.

Man you guys are impatient. It takes decades even for earth shattering technologies to mature and take root.

If people want to make the "this will be AGI after two decades and will totally revolutionize the entire world" that's fine. If people want to make the "wow this is an incredibly useful tool for many jobs that will make work more efficient" that's fine. We can have those discussions.

What I don't buy is the "in two years there will be no more concept of money or poverty because AI has solved everything" argument using the evidence that these tools are really good at coding.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#232
post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

What's happening with AGI depends on what you mean by AGI so "can't even be bothered discussing what the definition" means you can't say what's happening.

My usual way of thinking about it is AGI means can do all the stuff humans do which means you'd probably after a while look out the window and see robots building houses and the like. I don't think that's happening for a while yet.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#233
post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

If AGI is already here actions would be so greatly accelerated humans wouldn’t have time to respond. Remember that weather balloon the US found a few years ago that for days was on the news as a Chinese spy balloon? Well whether it was a spy balloon or a weather balloon but the first hint of its existence could have triggered a nuclear war that could have already been the end of the world as we know it because AGI wi…

What a silly comment. You're literally describing the plot of several sci-fi movies. Nuclear command and control systems are not taken so lightly.

And as for the Chinese spy balloon, there was never any risk of a war (at least not from that specific cause). The US, China, Russia, and other countries routinely spy on each other through a variety of unarmed technical means. Occasionally it gets exposed and turns into a diplomatic incident but that's about it. Everyone knows how the game is played.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#234
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can I rephrase this as "you can get experience without any experience"? Certainly, there's stuff you can learn that's adjacent to doing the thing; that's what happens when juniors graduate with CS degrees. But the lack of doing the thing is what makes them juniors.

>that's what happens when juniors graduate with CS degrees A CS degree is going to give you much less experience than building projects and businesses yourself.

How much time will someone realistically dedicate to this if they need to have a separate day job? How good will they get without mentors? How much complexity will they really need to manage without the bureaucracy of an organization?

Are senior software engineers of the future going to be waiting tables along side actors for the first 10+ years of their adult life, working on side projects on nights and weekends, hoping to one day jump straight to a senior position in a large company?

The questions I instinctively ask myself when looking at a new problem, having worked in an enterprise environment for 20 years, are much different than what I’d be asking having just worked on personal projects. Most of the technology I’ve had access to isn’t something a solo hobbyist dev will ever touch. Most of the questions I’m asking are influenced by having that access, along with some of the personalities I’ve had to deal with.

How will people get that kind of experience?

There is also the big issue of people not knowing what to build. When a person gets a job, they no long need to come up with their own ideas. Or they generate ideas based on the needs of the environment they’re in. In the context of my job, I have no shortage of ideas. For solo projects, I often draw a blank. The world doesn’t need a hundred more todo apps.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are assuming that the change can only happen in the west. The rest of the world has mostly been experiencing industrialisation, and was only indirectly affected by the great crash. If there is a transformation in the rest of the world the west cannot escape it. A lot of people in the west seem to have their heads in the sand, very much like when Japan and China tried to ignore the west. China is the world's secon…

When I look at my own country it has proven to be open to change. There are people alive today who remember Christianity now we swear in a gay prime minister. In that sense Western countries have proven that they are intellectualy very nimble.

Three of the best known Christians I have known in my life are gay. Two are priests (one Anglican, one Catholic). Obviously the Catholic priest had taken a vow of celibacy anyway to its entirely immaterial. I did read an interview of a celeb friend (also now a priest!) of his that said he (the priest I knew) thought people did not know he was gay we all knew, just did not make a fuss about it.

Even if you accept the idea that gay sex is a sin, the entire basis of Christianity is that we are all sinners. Possessing wealth is a failure to follow Jesus's commands for instance. You should be complaining a lot more if the prime minister is rich. Adultery is clearly a more serious sin than having the wrong sort of sex, and I bet your country has had adulterous prime ministers (the UK certainly has had many!).

I think Christians who are obsessed with homosexuality as somehow making people worse than the rest of us, are both failing to understand Christ's message, and saying more about themselves than gays.

If you look at when sodomy laws were abolished, countries with a Christian heritage lead this. There are reasons in the Christian ethos if choice and redemption for this.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cultural changes take time. It took decades for the internet to move from nerdy curiosity to an essential part of everyone's life. The writing is on the wall. Even if there's no new advances in technology, the current state is upending jobs, education, media, etc

> Cultural changes take time. It took decades for the internet to move from nerdy curiosity to an essential part of everyone's life. 99% of people only ever use proprietary networks from FAANG corporations. That's not "the internet", that's an evolution of CompuServe and AOL. We got TCP/IP and the "web-browser" as a standard UI toolkit stack out of it, but the idea of the world wide web is completely dead.

Shockingly rare how few realize this. It's a series of mega cities interconnected by ghost towns out here.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#237
post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

> Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. A slightly different angle on this - perhaps AGI doesn't matter (or perhaps not in the ways that we think). LLMs have changed a lot in software in the last 1-2 years (indeed, the last 1-2 months ); I don't think it's a wild extrapolation to see that'll come to many domains very soon.

Which domains? Will we see a lot of changes in plumbing?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#238
post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

The economy is shit if you’re anything except a nurse or providing care to old people.

Electricians are also doing pretty well. Someone has to wire up those new data centers.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#239
post #58
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's already like that; models are better than many workers, and I'm supervising agents. I'd rather have the model than numerous juniors; esp. the kind that can't identify the model's mistakes.

This is my greatest cause for alarm regarding LLM adoption. I am not yet sure AI will ever be good enough to use without experts watching them carefully; but they are certainly good enough that non-experts cannot tell the difference.

My dad is retired and enamored with ChatGPT. He’s been teaching classes to seniors and evangelizing the use to all his friends. Every time he calls he gives me an update on who he’s converted into a ChatGPT user. He seems disappointed with anyone who doesn’t use it for everything after he tells them about it.

A couple days ago he was telling me one lady he was trying to sell on it wouldn’t use it. She took the position that if she can’t trust the answers all the time, she isn’t going to trust or use it for anything. My dad almost seemed offended by this idea, he couldn’t understand why someone wouldn’t want the benefits it could offer, even if it wasn’t perfect.

I think her position was very sound. We see how much misinformation spreads online and how vulnerable people are to it. Wanting a trusted source of information is not a bad thing. Getting information more quickly is of little value if it isn’t reliable data.

If I prod my dad enough about it, he will admit that ChatGPT has made some mistakes that he caught. He knew enough to question it more when it was wrong. The problem is, if he already knew the answer, why was he asking in the first place… and if it was something he wasn’t well versed on, how does he know it’s giving him good data?

People are defaulting to trust, unless they catch the LLM in a lie. How many times does someone have to lie to a person before they are labeled a liar and no longer trusted at face value? For me, these LLMs have been labeled a liar and I don’t trust them. Trust takes a long time to rebuild once it’s broken.

I mostly use LLMs to augment search, not replace it. If it gives me an answer, I’ll click through to the sourced reference and see what it says there, and evaluate if it’s a source with trusting. In many cases the LLM will get me to the right page, but it will jumble up the details and get them wrong, like a bad game of telephone.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#240
post #203
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worry that if the reality lives up to investors dreams it will be massively disruptive for society which will lead us down dark paths. On the other hand if it _doesn't_ live up to their dreams, then there is so much invested in that dream financially that it will lead to massive societal disruption when the public is left holding the bag, which will also lead us down dark paths.

It's already made it impossible to trust half of the content i read online. Whenever i use search terms to ask a specific question these days theres usually a page of slop dedicated to the answer which appears top for relevancy. Once i realize it is slop i realize the relevant information could be hallicinated so i cant trust it. At the same time im seeing a huge upswing in probable human created content being accuse…

You trust nearly half??!!??
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