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The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

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Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#231

Post by AndrewKemendo »

ghurtado wrote: post #184
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every possible example of “progress” have either an individual or a state power purpose behind it there is only one possible “egalitarian” forward looking investments that paid off for everybody I think the only exception to this is vaccines…and you saw how all that worked during Covid Everything else from the semiconductor to the vacuum cleaner the automobile airplanes steam engines I don’t care what it is you pick…

If you edit your comment to add punctuation, please let me know: I would like to read that final pile of words. I did try, I promise.

Ok here: Everything from the semiconductor through the vacuum cleaner, automobile, airplanes and steam engines was developed to give a small group an advantage over all the other groups. It has always been the case, it will always be the case.

Fundamentally, at the root nature of humanity, humans do not care about the externalities, either good or bad.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#232

Post by janalsncm »

Nition wrote: post #195

I'm not sure about current LLM techniques leading us there. Current LLM-style systems seem like extremely powerful interpolation/search over human knowledge, but not engines of fundamentally new ideas, and it’s unclear how that turns into superintelligence. As we get closer to a perfect reproduction of everything we know, the graph so far continues to curve upward. Image models are able to produce incredible images,…

Certain classes of problems can be solved by searching over the space of possible solutions, either via brute force or some more clever technique like MCTS. For those types of problems, searching faster or more cleverly can solve them.

Other types of problems require measurement in the real world in order to solve them. Better telescopes, better microscopes, more accurate sensing mechanisms to gather more precise data. No AI can accomplish this. An AI can help you to design better measurement techniques, but actually taking the measurements will require real time in the real world. And some of these measurement instruments have enormous construction costs, for example CERN or LIGO.

All of this is to say that there will color point at our current resolution of information that no more intelligence can actually be extracted. We’ve already turned through the entire Internet. Maybe there are other data sets we can use, but everything will have diminishing returns.

So when people talk about trillion dollar superclusters, that only makes sense in a world where compute is the bottleneck and not better quality information. Much better to spend a few billion dollars gathering higher quality data.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#233

Post by jacquesm »

vondur wrote: post #163
PaulHoule wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With the odd story that we paid the price for it in the long term. This book https://www.amazon.com/Zero-Sum-Society-Distribution-Possibi... tells the compelling story that the Mellon family teamed up with the steelworker's union to use protectionism to protect the American steel industry's investments in obsolete open hearth steel furnaces that couldn't compete on a fair market with the basic oxygen furnace process…

Ha, we gutted our manufacturing base, so if we bring it back it will now be state of the art! Not sure if that will work out for us, but hey their is some precedence.

This is the silver lining in many bad stories: the pendulum will always keep on swinging because at the extremes the advantage flips.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#234

Post by dwaltrip »

jacquesm wrote: post #200
octernion wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

having played that when it came out, my conclusion was that no, i will definitely be able to be on a beach; i am too meaty and fleshy to be good paperclip

Sorry, we need the iron in your blood and bone marrow. Sluuuurrrrrpppp.... Enjoy the beach, or what's left.

Much better sources of iron are available.

More likely we get smooshed unintentionally as they AIs seek those out.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#236

Post by cpmsmith »

ericmcer wrote: post #93

Great article, super fun. > In 2025, 1.1 million layoffs were announced. Only the sixth time that threshold has been breached since 1993. Over 55,000 explicitly cited AI. But HBR found that companies are cutting based on AI's potential, not its performance. The displacement is anticipatory. You have to wonder if this was coming regardless of what technological or economic event triggered it. It is baffling to me that…

One thing that stuck out to me about this is that there have only been 32 years since 1993. That is, if it's happened 6 times, this threshold is breached roughly once every five years. Doesn't sound that historic put that way.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#238

Post by AndrewKemendo »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #215
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The goal is to eliminate humans as the primary actors on the planet entirely At least that’s my personal goal If we get to the point where I can go through my life and never interact with another human again, and work with a bunch of machines and robots to do science and experiments and build things to explore our world and make my life easier and safer and healthier and more sustainable, I would be absolutely thrill…

Now this is transhumanism! Don't let the cope and seething from this website dissuade you from keeping these views.

Thank you!

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#239

Post by AndrewKemendo »

mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote: post #144
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The goal is to eliminate humans as the primary actors on the planet entirely At least that’s my personal goal If we get to the point where I can go through my life and never interact with another human again, and work with a bunch of machines and robots to do science and experiments and build things to explore our world and make my life easier and safer and healthier and more sustainable, I would be absolutely thrill…

Well, demonstrably you have at least some measure of interest in interaction with other humans based on the undeniable fact that you are posting on this site, seemingly several times a day based on a cursory glance at your history.

Because every effort people use to do anything else is a waste of resources and energy and I want others to stop using resources to make bullshit and put all of them into ASI and human obviation

There are no more important other problems to solve other than this one

everything else is purely coping strategies for humans who don’t want to die wasting resources on bullshit

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#240

Post by bwhiting2356 »

We need contingency plans. Most waves of automation have come in S-curves, where they eventually hit diminishing returns. This time might be different, and we should be prepared for it to happen. But we should also be prepared for it not to happen.

No one has figured out a way to run a society where able bodied adults don't have to work, whether capitalist, socialist, or any variation. I look around and there seems to still be plenty of work to do that we either cannot or should not automate, in education, healthcare, arts (should not) or trades, R&D for the remaining unsolved problems (cannot yet). Many people seem to want to live as though we already live in a post scarcity world when we don't yet.

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