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The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

wsj.com

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Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#231

Post by TheRoque »

Turfie wrote: post #230
TheRoque wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Even if OpenAI models were the best, I still wouldn't used them, given how the Sam Altman persona is despicable (constantly hyping, lying, asking for no regulations, then asking for regulations, leaked emails where founders say they just wanna get rich without any consideration of their initial "open" claims...). I know other companies are not better, but at least they have a business model and something to los…

I agree. Especially the whole Johny Ive and Altman's hype video in that coffee shop was absolutely disgusting. Oh how far their egos have been inflated, which leads to very bad decision making. Not to be trusted.

Oh could I get a link to that one ?

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#232

Post by catdog »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #216
Handy-Man wrote: post #31

> He[Jensen Huang] has also privately criticized what he has described as a lack of discipline in OpenAI’s business approach and expressed concern about the competition it faces from the likes of Google and Anthropic, some of the people said.

People talk about an AI bubble. What we actually have is a GPU bubble. NVidia makes really expensive GPUs for AI. Others also make GPUs. Companies like Google produce and operate AI models largely using their own TPUs rather than NVidia's GPUs. We've seen the Chinese produce pretty competitive open models with either older NVidia GPUs or alternative GPUs because they are not allowed to buy the newer ones. And AMD, In…

> People talk about an AI bubble. What we actually have is a GPU bubble. NVidia makes really expensive GPUs for AI. Others also make GPUs.

Yes it is. I think even for multiple reasons. Competition in that space not sleeping is one but it's also a huge overestimation of demand combined with the questionable believe those GPUs and the Datacenters housing them can actually be built and put into operation as fast as envisioned.

> The reason that this 100B deal is apparently being reconsidered is that it is a bad deal for OpenAI. It was going to overpay for a solution that they can get cheaper elsewhere. It's bad news for NVidia, good news for OpenAI. This deal started out with just NVidia. But at this point there are also deals with AMD, MS, and others. OpenAI like the other hyperscalers is not betting the company on NVidia/CUDA. Good for them.

I think in case of OpenAI both may be true. While what you are saying makes sense, NVs first mover advantage obviously can't last forever, OpenAI currently does have little to no competitive advantage over other players. Combine this with the fact that some (esp. Google) sit on a huge pile of cash. In contrast for OpenAI the party is pretty much over as soon as investors stop throwing money into the oven so they might need to cut back a bit.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#233

Post by rvz »

jt2190 wrote: post #10

Last paragraph is informative: > Anthropic relies heavily on a combination of chips designed by Amazon Web Services known as Trainium, as well as Google’s in-house designed TPU processors, to train its AI models. Google largely uses its TPUs to train Gemini. Both chips represent major competitive threats to Nvidia’s best-selling products, known as graphics processing units, or GPUs. So which leading AI company is goi…

It's almost as if everyone here was assuming that Nvidia would have no competition for a long time, but it has been known for a long time, there are many competitors coming after their data center revenues. [0]

> So which leading AI company is going to build on Nvidia, if not OpenAI?

It's xAI.

But what matters is that there is more competition for Nvidia and they bought Groq to reduce that. OpenAI is building their own chips as well as Meta.

The real question is this: What happens when the competition catches up with Nvidia and takes a significant slice out of their data center revenues?

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45429514

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#234

Post by DebtDeflation »

aurareturn wrote: post #177
pinnochio wrote: post #11

All these giant non-binding investment announcements are just a massive confidence scam.

I don’t think so. I think it is positioning for the unknown future and hedging. For example, Amazon isn’t able to train its own models so it hedges by investing in Anthropic and OpenAI. Oracle, same with OpenAI deal. Nvidia wants to stay in OpenAI and Anthropic’s tech stack. It’s all jockeying for position.

Oracle is a perfect example of using empty AI partnership announcements to goose the stock price and also a perfect example of how unsustainable of a strategy it is.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#235

Post by chrisvalleybay »

TheRoque wrote: post #231
Turfie wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Especially the whole Johny Ive and Altman's hype video in that coffee shop was absolutely disgusting. Oh how far their egos have been inflated, which leads to very bad decision making. Not to be trusted.

Oh could I get a link to that one ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDNyFN_eMec

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#236

Post by consumer451 »

wmf wrote: post #162
consumer451 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean like OCR in photos? In that case, yes, I didn't think about that. Are there other use cases aside from speach to text in Siri?

I think they are also used for translation, summarization, etc. They're also available to other apps: https://developer.apple.com/documentation/FoundationModels

Thanks, I am a dumb dumb about Apple, and mobile in general. I should have known this. I really appreciate the reply so that I know it now.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#237

Post by Turfie »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #170

I felt anxious about all the insane valuations and spending around AI lately, and I knew it couldn't last (I mean there's only so much money, land, energy, water, business value, etc). But I didn't really know when it was going to collapse, or why. But recently I've been diving into using local models, and now it's way more clear. There seems to be a specific path for the implosion of AI: - Nvidia is the most valuabl…

I've thought about this too. I do agree that open source models look good and enticing, especially from a privacy standpoint. But these solutions are always going to remain niche solutions for power users. I'm not one of them. I can't be hassled/bothered to setup that whole thing (local or cloud) to gain some privacy and end up with an inferior model and tool. Let's not forget about the cost as well! Right now I'm paying for Claude and Gemini. I run out of Claude tokens real fast, but I can just keep on going using Gemini/GeminiCLI for absolutely no cost it seems like.

The closed LLMs with the biggest amount of users will eventually outperform the open ones too, I believe. They have a lot of closed data that they can train their next generation on. Especially the LLMs that the scientific community uses will be a lot more valuable (for everyone). So in terms of quality, the closed LLMs should eventually outperform the open ones, I believe, which is indeed worrisome.

I also felt anxious early december about the valuations, but, one thing remains certain. Compute is in heavy demand, regardless of which LLM people use. I can't go back to pre-AI. I want more and more and faster and faster AI. The whole world is moving that way it seems like. I'm invested into phsyical AI atm (chips, ram, ...) whose evaluations look decently cheap.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#238

Post by Turfie »

nicman23 wrote: post #210

the biggest imo indicator that it is gonna pop was dram makers not promising to expand production

Well, they might have gotten a little wary from previous boom and bust cycles. Perhaps they are a bit wary about the economic sustainability of the whole AI thing. However, perhaps they also might be driven by greed at this point. Why not just constrain supply and increase margins whilst they are no real competitor?

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#239

Post by retinaros »

sailingparrot wrote: post #34
jjcm wrote: post #19

Not only has OpenAI's market share gone down significantly in the last 6mo, Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models[1]. An alliance with OpenAI just makes less sense today than it did 6mo ago. [1] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/open-models-data-tools-acceler...

> Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models Nvidia has always had its own family of models, it's nothing new and not something you should read too much into IMHO. They use those as template other people can leverage and they are of course optimized for Nvidia hardware. Nvidia has been training models in the Megatron family as well as many others since at least 2019 which was us…

its a finetune..

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#240

Post by iLoveOncall »

amluto wrote: post #129

It’s probably not really related, but this bug and the saga of OpenAI trying and failing to fix it for two weeks is not indicative of a functional company: https://github.com/openai/codex/issues/9253 OTOH, if Anthropic did that to Claude Code, there wasn’t a moderately straightforward workaround, and Anthropic didn’t revert it quickly, it might actually be a risk-the-whole-business issue. Nothing makes people jump sh…

This issue has one thumbs up, nobody cares about it.
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