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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#231

Nvidia direct silicon revenue is higher. Also Nvidia's margins are higher which means that they will be willing to pay a higher unit price. This seems like an open and closed case from TSMC's side.

It also means that we will have a trouble buying new laptops for a few next years.

They will simply be more expensive.

More likely they will not use leading the leading edge fab process, which TBH is fine for the vast majority.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#232
post #194
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I also considered the RTX 6000 Pro Max-Q, but it’s quite expensive and probably only makes sense if I can use it for other workloads as well. Interestingly, its price hasn’t gone up since last summer, here in Germany.

I have MacStudio with 512GB RAM, 2x DGX Spark and RTX 6000 Pro WS (planing to buy a few of those in Max-Q version next). I am wondering if we ever see local inference so "cheap" as we see it right now given RAM/SSD price trends.

Good grief. I'm here cautiously telling my workplace to buy a couple of dgx sparks for dev/prototyping and you have better hardware in hand than my entire org.

What kind of experiments are you doing? Did you try out exo with a dgx doing prefill and the mac doing decode?

I'm also totally interested in hearing what you have learned working with all this gear. Did you buy all this stuff out of pocket to work with?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#233
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counter argument is that is NVIDIA friendly to their supply chain? I have to think that maybe they are with their massive margins because they can be - their end buyer is currently willing to absorb costs at no expense. But I don't know, and that will change as their business changes. Your underlying statement implies that whoever is replacing apple is a better buyer which I don't think is necessarily true.

> EVGA Terminates Relationship With Nvidia, Leaves GPU Business > According to Han, Nvidia has been difficult to work with for some time now. Like all other GPU board partners, EVGA is only told the price of new products when they're revealed to everyone on stage, making planning difficult when launches occur soon after. Nvidia also has tight control over the pricing of GPUs, limiting what partners can do to differen…

So not favorable to apple as a buyer.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#234
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semiconductor manufacturing is not an incremental step for Apple. It's an entirely new kind of vertical. They do not have the resources to do this. If they could they would have by now.

They could buy global foundaries and pour in a pile of cash, 5 years later they’d have something useful Or they could buy out Intel and sell off their cpu design division

In that case they would have just burnt cash for 5 years and didn't have anything to show for it.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#235
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate this writing as well. Is not about technology and finance? The reporter writes as if it is a novel.

The sheer number of em dashes in the text suggest to me that the reporter didn't write anything, ChatGPT did.

For the last time.. Word (the program very popularly used by many reporters across the world to write articles) automatically autocorrects hyphens to em-dashes according to the default loaded grammar rules for En-US. The existence of em-dashes in an article does NOT immediately imply GenAI slop.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#236
post #92

This article repeatedly cites revenue growth numbers as an indicator of Nvidia and Apple’s relative health, which is a very particular way of looking at things. By way of another one, Apple had $416Bn in revenue, which was a 6% increase from the prior year, or about $25Bn, or about all of Nvidia’s revenue in 2023. Apple’s had slow growth in the last 4 years following a big bump during the early pandemic; their 5 year…

I agree. People confuse relative for absolute numbers.

And ironically Apple acts like being a small contender the moment they feel some heat after a decade of relatively easy wins everywhere it seemed.

So finally there is a company that gives Apple some much needed heat.

That’s why I in absolute terms side with NVIDIA, the small contender in this case.

PS: I had one key moment in my career when I was at Google and a speaker mentioned the unit “NBU”. It stands for next billion units.

This is ten years ago and started my mental journey into large scale manufacturing and production including all the processes included.

The fascination never left. It was a mind bender for me and totally get why people miss everything that large.

At Google it was just a milestone expected to be hit - not one time but as the word next indicates multiple times.

Mind blowing and eye opening to me ever since. Fantastic inspiration thinking about software, development and marketing.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#237

...and then China invades Taiwan, and nobody ain't getting nothing.

I feel like China invading Taiwan isn't happening in our lifetimes. Yes, they stand to benefit from it, but I doubt any of the people in charge of decision making are that interested in rocking the boat. There's nobody forcing their hand and the country is doing great without needing to invade anyone.

"They stand to benefit from it" how!? The only thing they'll get is immediate geopolitical scorn which could very well escalate to mass military action considering how much TSMC now means for the world's economy. A single temporary shutdown of the fabs would mean a global economic apocalypse. They'd be inviting all powers of the world to attack them for no upside whatsoever, because it will all be over by the time they figure out how to leverage the fabs themselves.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#238
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

I doubt that we will hit diminishing returns in AI. We still find new ways to make them faster or cheaper or better or even train themselves... The flat line prediction is now 2 years old...

I thought the prediction was that the scaling of LLMs making them better would plateau, not that all advancement would stop? And that has pretty much happened as all the advancements over the last year or more have been architectural, not from scaling up.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#240
post #138
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

So let's say TMSC reciprocated Apple's consistency as a customer by giving them preferential treatment for capacity. It's good business after all. However, everyone knows that good faith reciprocity at that scale is not rewarded. Apple is ruthless. There are probably thousands of untold stories of how hard Apple has hammered it's suppliers over the years. While Apple has good consumer brand loyalty, they arguably tre…

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