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Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

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Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#231
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by long term value? The current market value is typically the best estimate we have for their long term value. No one is talking about bank reserves. I'm talking about assets.

> What do you mean by long term value? The current market value is typically the best estimate we have for their long term value. In situations where we still care about dollars, so no hyperinflation or total collapse of the United States, the current market value of a Treasury bond can't actually vary that much. And the amount it can reasonably vary is mostly proportional to how many years are left in the bond. By t…

> In situations where we still care about dollars, so no hyperinflation or total collapse of the United States, the current market value of a Treasury bond can't actually vary that much. And the amount it can reasonably vary is mostly proportional to how many years are left in the bond.

Well, it was enough variance to bring Silicon Valley Bank down.

> By the time your bonds reach maturity, you always have more dollars than you started with. Long term you always profit.

I'd be very happy to have you as my investor in some long term bonds---with terrible below-market-but-barely-positive interest rates.

> I'm saying you're too worried about "withdrawal requests" a normal bank would see.

Silicon Valley Bank saw massive withdrawals, because their liabilities exceeded their assets.

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#232
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are mixing up a lot of different ideas and concepts. Historically, the combination of fractional reserve banking and the classic gold standard was very successful. Just because your bank uses grams of gold as the unit of accounting (or something that's effectively equivalent to grams of gold), doesn't mean they need to have that much of gold in their vaults. Similar to how today a bank will give you dollar bills…

Thank you for your detailed response. I find the idea of wise's being able to store even liquid cash into stocks. How does the taxation aspect of it work? Would I have to pay short term capital gains on each transaction that I then make? They also provide daily interests which seem interesting and about on par with treasury rates so it technically sort of can act as the end result of narrow banking for what I wanted…

> How does the taxation aspect of it work? Would I have to pay short term capital gains on each transaction that I then make?

Sorry, I have no clue, you need to investigate that by yourself. My jurisdiction doesn't have capital gains taxes, so I didn't look into this. Let me know what you find.

> Also, basically US loses all major exports for this financial hack of sorts. Doesn't it fundamentally weaken the reality of US?

Your view of exports is a bit too narrow. A 'trade deficit' mostly just means that the US 'exports' financial assets. The US is really good at producing financial assets. Eg when people globally buy into a hot US IPO that officially counts as widening the trade deficit, even though you could say in a sense that effectively the US is exporting Google shares. And they are really good at making new companies.

Btw, in aggregate the US earns more from their investments abroad than they send foreigners for their investments in the US. Despite the foreigners investing more overall. That's a pretty good deal for the Americans (in aggregate).

I agree that an unsustainable government deficit is bad, but that's bad regardless of whether it's foreigners or locals who finance the government.

> So (when) the AI financial bubble explodes, How would America even rebuild itself?

You can look at what happened in the past after similar episodes.

Btw, for an interesting history lesson look at what happened after 1987's Black Monday: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/356376-black-monday-less...

> I am sorry to say but the future seems bleak. I hope I am wrong but I wish the average american the best of luck and hope in a better future for the whole world combined but being honest, the future doesn't feel good for America.

I don't live in America, but from the outside it seems like the place still has a lot of life and dynamism left.

The main thing that would keep me from moving there is their asinine NIMBYism in the big cities and car infestation of the whole country. I'm not too worried about their economy, and I have about 50% of my investment portfolio in US stocks.

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exceptional includes soft skills too.

1. You re-defined the scope of what it means to be exceptional in cybersecurity. 2. One example of a trait that many bosses desire, but is not a social skill per se is docility.

If a doctor excels at health science but is so terrible at client communication that their patients do not understand or follow medical advice and instructions, are they a good doctor?

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP and not an accountant. I see the reasoning for accountants keeping future liabilities off of the balance sheet. I do this myself in multiple contexts. Still, when making decisions about whether to take out or grant a loan (personal or business) I need to consider future "value" and cash flows. To someone running a business this is probably more important than the balance sheet. So I think the interest recordin…

It's not keeping future liabilities off balance sheet. It's marking them at their current value. Same thing for assets. Nobody wants to see a balance sheet where 30 year government bonds are written down at the sum of all interest payments to be received plus the principal. If you did that, you'd have balance sheets jumping all around the place as companies just managed cash on a day to day basis. The vast majority o…

Wouldn't the principle be a current liability, and the interest the future liability?

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#235
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, how do you book depreciation of a motor vehicle? For a car it is particularly easy, look up its value in one of the standard sources like blue book. What you seem to be saying is that you don't really care to track your current net worth. Which is totally sensible if you don't care about that. But if you wanted to track net worth, then you'd need to track the actual value of everything you own, which i…

This is the kind of thinking that leads to stupid stuff like "a vehicle loses 1/3 its value when you drive it off the forecourt". It doesn't, obviously, unless maybe one of the seats falls out or something. Looking up the potential market value of your car regularly is exactly the kind of ridiculous thing regular people don't need to do. Just put it in your assets as "1 car" and don't think about it again. Most peopl…

There is nothing "stupid" or "ridiculous" about correcly tracking net worth.

Also nothing wrong if you don't feel like doing it. But some people want to track value of assets, nothing stupid about that.

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#236
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What do you mean by long term value? The current market value is typically the best estimate we have for their long term value. In situations where we still care about dollars, so no hyperinflation or total collapse of the United States, the current market value of a Treasury bond can't actually vary that much. And the amount it can reasonably vary is mostly proportional to how many years are left in the bond. By t…

> In situations where we still care about dollars, so no hyperinflation or total collapse of the United States, the current market value of a Treasury bond can't actually vary that much. And the amount it can reasonably vary is mostly proportional to how many years are left in the bond. Well, it was enough variance to bring Silicon Valley Bank down. > By the time your bonds reach maturity, you always have more dollar…

Again, worrying about the long term value is an entirely different problem from worrying about your assets temporarily shrinking 10%. I was talking about the former. SVB, an example of the latter, does not affect my argument. And again, SVB could have used shorter term bonds to avoid that problem.

> I'd be very happy to have you as my investor in some long term bonds---with terrible below-market-but-barely-positive interest rates.

Very funny. Look, that's one feature of Treasury bonds, not the only feature. They get pretty good yields compared to gold in the long term, and you can trust them a lot.

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#237
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I'm saying is that without the law, the bank could create loans without a constraint, so say 20X, 100X 1000X. No, they couldn't, and they didn't when no such laws existed. Canada and Scotland had prominent episodes in their histories when banking was fairly lightly regulated and no such laws existed; and their banks did not create '1000X' loans from thin air. > Another misconception is that this money creation…

Besides the discussion of who is right, I think both theories are quite standard and we would benefit from learning the standard terms. Regarding your theory of gold deposits being behind money creation is on Wikipedia as Metallism. Regarding how banks worked before such laws existed, we could look at the period immediately before the creation of fractional reserve, I would predict that immediately before the rule wa…

> Regarding your theory of gold deposits being behind money creation is on Wikipedia as Metallism.

Huh, what? There's no gold deposits in a fiat system, and they still have money creation. And in eg in 19th century Scotland gold was the unit of account, but they scarcely had any gold in the country (yet alone any gold deposits), and they still had plenty of money creation.

> Regarding how banks worked before such laws existed, we could look at the period immediately before the creation of fractional reserve, I would predict that immediately before the rule was put in place, the banks were creating these 1000X (maybe 100X? I don't know) which caused a bank run.

Huh? When would that be? There was no banking system 'before' fractional reserve banking. And what bank run are you talking about? Historically, bank runs basically only happen when a bank has solvency troubles (or when a law pretty much compels bank runs).

> I think a more standard term is endogenous, as in an emergent behaviour of private individuals, rather than exogenous, as in set by a central bank. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_money

Sure, I agree that private money creation in commercial banks is endogenous in that sense.

> You are right these are not standard terms, I meant gross money creation as money that is created with a corresponding liability. For example a loan, or a loan with a mortgage on land. The money base increases, but so does the size of the economy represented by that currency in equal increments. Endogenous money seems to map quite cleanly to gross money. Although not all exogenous money is "net" (as in creating currency without an underlying asset).

OK. Technically even the central bank money is created with offsetting liabilities, at least for the mainstream economies and their central banks like the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England etc.

I say 'technically', because the treasury can just create a T-bill from thin air, sell it to the market, and then the Fed will loan you newly created money against that T-bill.

There's an interesting debate to be had about seignorage and inflation, and about fiat currency vs fiduciary currency.

First, you don't need to print money without a liability to get seignorage income. When the central does a classic open market operation where they buy a bond yield eg 5% for newly created money (naturally yielding 0%, if it's cash), they earn a 5% interest rate differential for as long as that new money is in circulation. That's very similar to how any old commercial bank earns an interest rate differential.

Now this gets a bit more complicated with inflation and/or when the central bank pays interest on reserves held with them. At the moment the Fed pays 3.65% interest on reserves. (Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reserve-balanc...). But generally they still have a positive seignorage income.

Money created by the Fed and money created by commercial banks contributes to inflation in the same way. The Fed just measures the total inflation that's occurring (and tries to forecast future inflation), and then adapts its own policy instruments accordingly. They automatically take private money creation into account.

About inflation and seignorage: you might think that it's very straightforward and printing more money would lead to more seignorage income. However that's not true in general.

As we noted above, central banks mostly get their seignorage income from the interest rate difference between their assets and liabilities. (Cash and 'reserves' being the primary central bank liabilities.)

When inflation is high, people really cut back on how much cash they hold, at least in real terms. For an example: as the money printing in Zimbabwe really kicked off, people might have held more cash in nominal terms, but in real terms they wallets got lighter and lighter.

In contrast, Japanese people are famous for holding oodles of cash, partially because their years of mild deflation made holding cash relatively more lucrative.

(Turkey is perhaps a good example to follow along, because they want from relatively low inflation in the 2000s to much higher inflation since, but not nearly as catastrophic as Zimbabwe. Or you can look at real money balances in the US through the Great Inflation in the 1970s vs before and after.)

If all you want to optimise for is seignorage income, the optimal rate of inflation is something low-ish and stable. But details depend on how big your economy is, and how easy it is for people to switch to other currencies. So eg the optimal value for Singapore is probably lower than for the US. (Optimal just in the seignorage income maximising sense. Monetary policy typically has other goals.)

About fiat vs fiduciary money: you know fiat money already. Fiduciary money is where you promise to redeem the tokens in some underlying asset on demand. A classic example could be paper money that can be exchanged for gold on demand.

Confusingly, both intermix freely. What I mean is that in a fiat system, the central bank issues fiat money. But the private banks create fiduciary money: your bank typically lets you withdraw your deposit (fiduciary money) as cash (central bank fiat money).

Perhaps fiduciary money is a better term for what you describe as 'net money'?

https://cdn.mises.org/rae9_2_5_4.pdf has some good points on the distinction. (Though keep in mind that the target audience is 'Internet Austrians' who see everything but gold or silver coins as suspicious, and the authors are trying to convince them not to be so dogmatic.)

You might also like 'Those Dishonest Goldsmiths' https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1589709 about the myth that goldsmiths invented fractional reserve banking.

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#238
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah, you can start from the Pope, and you only care about the Bible insofar as the Pope says you should care about it. Very simple 'axiom'.

But then you should not argue that the Bible says something, but that the Pope does. :-)

In principle, yes, but the Pope can't answer every question I have 24/7, so he and his assistants have prepared some literature for my perusal.

And it's not like what the constitution says or what the bible says is completely useless, it's just that when it comes to conflicting interpretations, you look to the courts or the church for guidance.

The Catholic church's official position is a bit more nuanced. The Pope can declare things infallibly under special circumstances, but they place great importance on ecumenical councils, too. (And in fact, to avoid circular logic, Papal infallibility was declared at one of these councils. They might be dogmatic, but they ain't stupid.)

Take everything I say with a grain of salt. Culturally, I grew up in the heartland of the Protestant Reformation where Luther himself went around and preached; and philosophically I veer between being a dirty atheist and a cowardly agnostic, depending on how I feel on the day.

I just treat the theological discussion like Lord of the Ring fans or Warhammer 40k would treat lore discussions.

You might like the chapter 'When God is the Legislator' in David Friedman's 'Legal Systems Very Different From Ours' available for free at http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Legal%20Systems/LegalSystemsCo...

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#239
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by long term value? The current market value is typically the best estimate we have for their long term value. No one is talking about bank reserves. I'm talking about assets.

> The current market value is typically the best estimate we have for their long term value. It's not. The EMH has been empirically disproven in the 80s.

Could you please link me to the evidence? Which version of the EMH has been disproven?

EMH comes in multiple different strengths. The strongest version would be something comical like 'market prices are omniscient and perfectly predict future prices'. That's almost certainly wrong. Very weak versions are something like 'Don't bother actively trading on the news as a retail investor, because by the time you've heard them, the folks over at Goldman Sachs and the hedge funds and their computers will have traded on them a million times over already', and these are almost certainly true. (But even somewhat stronger versions are probably true.)

Re: Calling All Hackers: How money works (2024)

#240
post #207
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark is one of them. Germany has something similar. But you can ask your friendly neighbourhood LLM for details on the world's jurisdictions to get a complete list.

Germany doesn't tax actual unrealized gains. They do tax foreign accumulating ETFs, but those really just dress up dividends to look a bit like unrealized capital gains to brokerages and, in the past, tax authorities.

Btw, I wonder why companies bother with dividends at all, when for most of their shareholders buybacks have tax advantages. (Economically, the two are the same.)
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