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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#231

Post by throwaway-0001 »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #183
rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

Same story here. I work in games so it's always been boom or bust. It's real bad now. - out of college it took 3 months to find work. It sucked, took over 100 apps, but I found a nice project. - after that project ended, 3 more months (but less stressful because I had more than one role I was interviewing with). - Then layoffs, another 3 months in 2022 where it was very competitive (I was in at least 4-5 interview pi…

I can hire you if you decent and don’t expect high salary ports-spatial5c@icloud.com

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#232

Post by int_19h »

bequanna wrote: post #57
OgsyedIE wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The investment thesis in AI is that the decline in consumer spending in the other sectors of the economy won't matter when the consumers cease to be a significant participant in the economy in the near term: that moving investment away from the activity in agriculture, transportation, goods and services, etc., is rational because those sectors are soon to be obsolete when their customers buying power and long term ca…

I’m not sure I follow. So, are you saying that wealth will become completely concentrated at the top and the rest of us are obsolete, out of work and broke? That seems unlikely. What is the point of an economy if there is no one who is actually able to consume?

The ones who own the robots will be doing the consumption.

Of course, this all implies that the rest of us will just sit and starve quietly. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#233

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

fooker wrote: post #225
kortilla wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software developer salaries went up significantly after 2016 and it was a super hot market for developers in 2020. So whatever you saw wasn’t a good indicator.

Yeah someone joining a good company as a senior engineer in 2015 would retire with about 15M in assets now assuming smart investments (say... half on big tech stocks, half in market indices) Someone joining now on the other hand, might have to resort to physical work at some point in the next ten years of things go south.

This is very much tech bubble thinking.

Most developers in the US don’t work for tech companies and will never make ovdd $200K inflation adjusted. Developer salary is very much bimodal

https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/trimodal

If you are working for boring old enterprise companies like banks, airlines, insurance companies or even most YC funded companies, “senior” developers will top out at around $160K-$170K inflation adjusted in tier 2 cities.

I spent my pure developer career [1] in Atlanta GA. Well known companies based there like Home Depot, Delta, Coke, and GE Transportation are paying their top developers around what entry level developers getting in BigTech.

But choose your non west coast city and you will see the same.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#234

Post by jneen »

QuiEgo wrote: post #151
echelon wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree. Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management. If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us. It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI. None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat. Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asi…

I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago. My theory: We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We are living through a nasty correction. AI is moving the needle too, but it’s mostly being used as a scapegoat to save face and explain away cleaning up failed ZRIP yolo plans that didn’t pan out. We’ve also haven’t had a seri…

I've had my job offshored in the past, in case a personal anecdote is relevant here.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#235

Post by jameslk »

chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

K-shaped economy is the buzz word these days

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#236

Post by t-writescode »

shagie wrote: post #119
t-writescode wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean spending all their time looking for a new job, applying for various benefits, doing side work as much as they can, at pay far lower than they're used to so it takes more hours of gig work to reach equilibrium?

> ... at pay far lower than they're used to ... Is this saying something more about the relative expectation of compensation bands? New grads are unlikely to have a comparable benchmark. People who've worked in Big Tech and finding themselves applying to regular companies where the revenue per employee is in the $200k range are likely going to have difficulty adjusting to such. I work in the public sector and make ve…

This is the comment chain to which I was responding:

csomar: Also people who can’t find a job tend to be more vocal than the rest.

fragmede: Are they perhaps more vocal because they have *a lot of time on their hands?* (emphasis mine)

me: You mean spending all their time looking for a new job, applying for various benefits, doing side work as much as they can, at pay far lower than they're used to so it takes more hours of gig work to reach equilibrium?

--

So, what I was responding to was the implication that unemployed or under-employed means that you've got a whole lot of free time, which can absolutely, positively be the opposite of true.

If one had a job that previously made end's meet and now all they've got is gig work, they're probably filling ALL of their time just to survive, and are probably still coming up short. That's what I meant.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#237

Post by Saigonautica »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #156
bluGill wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard that story every few years for the last 30. I know when it is your personal situation things are hard, but your story is nothing new and people recover. Some get back into whatever their degree was, others start a new career and never do. this will happen again.

>and people recover. So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers? They aren't put on the streets, but it's clear some very long term damage is being done to people simply as a matter of bad luck.

I mean, it caused me to emigrate to a growth economy. If I stayed in the West, I don't think I would have been OK.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#239

Post by QuiEgo »

jneen wrote: post #234
QuiEgo wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago. My theory: We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We are living through a nasty correction. AI is moving the needle too, but it’s mostly being used as a scapegoat to save face and explain away cleaning up failed ZRIP yolo plans that didn’t pan out. We’ve also haven’t had a seri…

I've had my job offshored in the past, in case a personal anecdote is relevant here.

Sorry that happened to you :(

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#240

Post by refurb »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #193
refurb wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 10% is a household making more than $191k so a couple making $95k each. Rich indeed!

Generally speaking, the rich is anyone who makes slightly more than you.

It's like the saying about alcoholics - "an alcoholic is anyone who drinks 1 more drink than you".
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