Live data from Hacker News

Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

sherwood.news

231–240 of 352 posts

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#231
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure the Fed chart is accurately measuring what it's measuring but when I was a kid in Southern California it was normal to buy a house and raise kids on a single teacher or construction worker salary. That has become nearly impossible over the past couple decades. Many others have seen similar changes in their own areas and I don't think they're being crazy when they say it has gotten much harder to finance a no…

Inflation measures aren’t fit for purpose. The biggest expense is housing and housing as a proportion of income is what is killing people financially.

Housing is the largest component of both inflation measures.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_consumption_expenditu...

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recessions can be avoided if you know about them ahead of time, so if you ever successfully predicted one your central bank isn't good enough.

Is there a way to predict when central banks aren't "good enough" then? Point is, for a 100% positive case rate, I have to tolerate a 22% false positive rate. What exactly is the complaint here? Was this line of logic meant to make people who make these predictions look stupid or foolish somehow? To me, it mostly fails to.

> Is there a way to predict when central banks aren't "good enough" then?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recessions can be avoided if you know about them ahead of time, so if you ever successfully predicted one your central bank isn't good enough.

Intervening as if there were a recession inminent when it is not also has harms (the exact same as the harms when recession interventions are maintained too long or employed too intensely, in terms of inflation, etc.), so I wouldn't agree that your central bank is bad if you happened to have guessed right once, but only if you have a demonstrably accurate objective method.

> the exact same as the harms

It actually appears that the alternative harms aren't as bad; that is, recessions aren't caused by prior expansions and we don't get one by "deserving" them.

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~enakamura/papers/plucking.pdf

Hyperinflation is of course still not good, and it's hard to avoid a recession caused by a natural disaster or something.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#234
post #90
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Selling (writing) options is NOT how you bet against a company. You either sell the stock short or buy puts.

How is selling call options not betting against a company?

Dependant on strikes (assuming at the money, assuming naked short) you would still profit if it stayed the same, or went up a little in price. Selling options is also being short volatility, so the 'bet' is that less will happen than is expected and, in the case of selling calls, with a preference for happenings to be downward.

A downward move could also see volatility go up significantly and increase the value of the options you are short, especially longer dated options.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#235

Does Michael Burry actually have $1.1B liquid? That margin call could obliterate him. Also, this is not an argument in favor of Nvidia or Palantir.

Putting aside that he's using puts (which caps the downside), with a classical short sell you don't need the current value of the stock liquid, but typically some percentage. That represents how much the stock can go up before you get the margin call. A short position is fundamentally unlike a long one, in that the future price movement of the underlying is bounded below at $0 but not bounded above. The sources I can…

Thanks, man.

It was nice to read a thoughtful reply for a change, lol.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, thanks for proving my point.

This isn't the kafka trap you think it is because any reasonable reader would see the glaring false equivalence. Supporting atrocities is upsetting and something we have agency over. How do you not see this?

I honestly don't understand how this relates to people actively supporting Hamas attacking Israel and killing civilians.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't the kafka trap you think it is because any reasonable reader would see the glaring false equivalence. Supporting atrocities is upsetting and something we have agency over. How do you not see this?

I honestly don't understand how this relates to people actively supporting Hamas attacking Israel and killing civilians.

It relates to people ignoring Hamas. We have nothing to do with Hamas. People support the human rights of Palestinians because they support the human rights of all humans.

I didn't address supporting Hamas because it wouldn't have been a generous interpretation of your argument. Where have you seen Hamas support? I have only seen it when Palestinian support is equated to Hamas support to justify atrocities.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#239
His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. That’s the problem with being a perma-bear, eventually the market dips but you missed out on extraordinary gains vastly out weighing your negative thesis. It’s a hellva lot easier to be bullish American companies then try and time draw downs. Doesn’t make any sense.
Post reply on HN