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AWS multiple services outage in us-east-1

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Re: AWS multiple services outage in us-east-1

#232
Just a couple of days ago in this HN thread [0] there were quite some users claiming Hetzner is not an options as their uptime isn't as good as AWS, hence the higher AWS pricing is worth the investment. Oh, the irony.

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45614922

Re: AWS multiple services outage in us-east-1

#235

Ring is affected. Why doesn’t Ring have failover to another region?

That's understandably bad for anyone who depends on Ring for security but arguably a net positive for the rest of us.

Amazon’s Ring to partner with Flock: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45614713

Re: AWS multiple services outage in us-east-1

#236

As this incident unfolds, what’s the best way to estimate how many additional hours it’s likely to last? My intuition is that the expected remaining duration increases the longer the outage persists, but that would ultimately depend on the historical distribution of similar incidents. Is that kind of data available anywhere?

Yes, with no prior knowledge the mathematically correct estimate is: time left = time so far But as you note prior knowledge will enable a better guess.

Yeah, the Copernican Principle.

> I visited the Berlin Wall. People at the time wondered how long the Wall might last. Was it a temporary aberration, or a permanent fixture of modern Europe? Standing at the Wall in 1969, I made the following argument, using the Copernican principle. I said, Well, there’s nothing special about the timing of my visit. I’m just travelling—you know, Europe on five dollars a day—and I’m observing the Wall because it happens to be here. My visit is random in time. So if I divide the Wall’s total history, from the beginning to the end, into four quarters, and I’m located randomly somewhere in there, there’s a fifty-percent chance that I’m in the middle two quarters—that means, not in the first quarter and not in the fourth quarter.

> Let’s suppose that I’m at the beginning of that middle fifty percent. In that case, one-quarter of the Wall’s ultimate history has passed, and there are three-quarters left in the future. In that case, the future’s three times as long as the past. On the other hand, if I’m at the other end, then three-quarters have happened already, and there’s one-quarter left in the future. In that case, the future is one-third as long as the past.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1999/07/12/how-to-predict...

Re: AWS multiple services outage in us-east-1

#238

Just a couple of days ago in this HN thread [0] there were quite some users claiming Hetzner is not an options as their uptime isn't as good as AWS, hence the higher AWS pricing is worth the investment. Oh, the irony. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45614922

I don't have an opinion either way, but for now, this is just anecdotal evidence.

Re: AWS multiple services outage in us-east-1

#239
post #190

Robinhood's completely down. Even their main website: https://robinhood.com/

Amazing, I wonder what their interview process is like, probably whiteboarding a next-gen LLM in WASM, meanwhile, their entire website goes down with us-east-1... I mean.
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