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It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

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Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#231

Post by int_19h »

dabockster wrote: post #189
moomoo11 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think their moat is ironically the platform. Like Apple vs every other computer maker. Their platform mostly just works. Their api playground and docs are like 100x better than whatever garbage Anthropic has. I think their UX is way better, and I can have long AF conversations without lagging. I can even change models in the same conversation. Basic shit Anthropic can’t figure out (they can fleece their 20x max sub…

The platform is just a search tool and extended processing modes. That is easily replicated elsewhere. The only moat they have is the fact that you still need a GPU of some kind to reliably run even a tiny LLM. But the gap between what absolutely needs a server farm and what can be ran on a store bought gaming computer is quickly closing. You can already run mixture of experts models on gaming rigs with a high degree…

Don't forget about Macs. Top models can run even fairly large LLMs (although time to first token is... not great). But even midline can certainly run LLMs in the ballpark of ~30B params very well, which is where things start to get interesting IMO.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#232

Post by int_19h »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #205
kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

That's why OpenAI is hard pivoting towards products now. The big one IMO is Instant Checkout and Agentic Commerce Protocol. ChatGPT is going to turn into a product recommendation engine and OpenAI is going to get a slice of every purchase, which is going to disrupt the current impression/click adtech model and potentially Google and Amazon themselves. It's an open question how hard they can do this without enshittify…

The notion that people would be willing to let LLMs spend money is, frankly, insane given the hallucination problems that still don't have any clear solution in sight.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#233

Post by int_19h »

Fraterkes wrote: post #198
Multiplayer wrote: post #63

The current AI wave has been compared (by sama) to electricity and sometimes transistors. AI is just going to be in all the products. The trillion dollar question is: Do you care what kind of electricity you are using? So, will you care what kind of AI you are using. In the last few interviews with him I have listened to he has said that what he wants is "your ai" that knows you, everywhere that you are. So his game…

If you take that at face value, shouldn't every investor just back Google or Apple instead? Like, OpenAI is, at best, months ahead when it comes to model quality. But for them to get integrated into the lives of people in the way all their competitors are would take years. If the way in which ai becomes this ubiquitous trillion dollar thing involves making it hyper-personalized, is there any way in which OpenAi is pa…

They haven't been ahead in model quality for some time now.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#234

Post by kllrnohj »

llmslave wrote: post #50
kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

They only invented modern AI, can easily be replaced!!

They did nothing of the sort. Google invented modern AI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_Is_All_You_Need

OpenAI turned that research into a product before Google, which is a huge failure on Google's part, but that's orthogonal to the invention of what powers modern models.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#235

Post by Andrex »

yen223 wrote: post #109
kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

A lot of the points also apply to Google as a search engine, yet we're still seeing Google owning about 90% of search engine usage.

Google was always terrified by the fact that they had no moat in Search. This was clear from interviews and articles at the time. That's why they decided to roll up the ad market instead, and once they had the advertisers Search became a self-fulfilling monopoly.

Google Search would be moatless if not for the AdMob purchase.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#236

Post by [deleted] »

ACCount37 wrote: post #172
OtherShrezzing wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like reading Zitron’s output, but this remark stood out to me as him weighing in on a domain he’s basically clueless about. Spread across 4 years, there’s way more than $1tn in available private capital. Berkshire Hathaway alone has 1/3 of that sitting in a cash pile right now. You don’t have to look at many balance sheets to see that the big tech companies are all also sitting on huge piles of cash. I don’t person…

Isn't that every domain? The dude is a living embodiment of "overconfident and wrong". He picks a side, then cherry picks until he has it all lined up so that his side is Obviously Right and anything else is Obviously Wrong. Then reality happens and he's proven wrong, but he never fucking learns.

[deleted]

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#237

Post by dabockster »

int_19h wrote: post #231
dabockster wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The platform is just a search tool and extended processing modes. That is easily replicated elsewhere. The only moat they have is the fact that you still need a GPU of some kind to reliably run even a tiny LLM. But the gap between what absolutely needs a server farm and what can be ran on a store bought gaming computer is quickly closing. You can already run mixture of experts models on gaming rigs with a high degree…

Don't forget about Macs. Top models can run even fairly large LLMs (although time to first token is... not great). But even midline can certainly run LLMs in the ballpark of ~30B params very well, which is where things start to get interesting IMO.

> although time to first token is... not great

The token cache works on CUDA too. So yeah, the initial loadout sucks, but almost everything from then on is solid.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#238

Post by charles_f »

I don't understand the link between the title of the article, and its content. If I summarize their three points:

1. Corporate strategy of OpenAI is becoming a monopole 2. OpenAI is investing in infrastructure because they think they'll have lots of users in the future 3. Making videos on Sora is fun, and people are gonna post more of these.

How does that substantiate "we live in OpenAI's world"? Am I missing something?

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#239

Post by numeri »

noir_lord wrote: post #208
bigbuppo wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That certainly explains why Microsoft is so desperate to force everyone into using their AI whether they want to or not. I'm wondering if the deal will end Microsoft when OpenAI goes belly up.

It’s rapidly ending my deal with Microsoft. I want windows to play games, for computing I use Linux but they keep foisting shite I don’t want on me just to play games, AI and sodding OneDrive can piss off. I’ve kept windows around because it was less painful to game on than Linux but Linux is better than ever and windows is getting worse, at some point those lines are gonna cross and for the first time in 30 odd year…

I'll just throw in support for gaming on Linux – it's pretty nice feeling these days! I still have the occasional (once every 5–8 months?) update cause a short-lived bug, but it's a very justifiable trade-off to avoid Windows these days.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#240

Post by moomoo11 »

dabockster wrote: post #189
moomoo11 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think their moat is ironically the platform. Like Apple vs every other computer maker. Their platform mostly just works. Their api playground and docs are like 100x better than whatever garbage Anthropic has. I think their UX is way better, and I can have long AF conversations without lagging. I can even change models in the same conversation. Basic shit Anthropic can’t figure out (they can fleece their 20x max sub…

The platform is just a search tool and extended processing modes. That is easily replicated elsewhere. The only moat they have is the fact that you still need a GPU of some kind to reliably run even a tiny LLM. But the gap between what absolutely needs a server farm and what can be ran on a store bought gaming computer is quickly closing. You can already run mixture of experts models on gaming rigs with a high degree…

I'd say their DX is way better compared to the competition. The playground, tooling, and web experience with documentation is far superior to the competition (even tho it has issues sometimes). User experience is key in a sea of the same shit.

I mean you could say the same about a Macbook or iPhone/iPad, but for the actual people (not HN users lol) out there, they vastly prefer Apple to HP, Dell, etc. Due to their wallet some can't though.

There are literally thousands of other laptops that do the "same thing" (computer for doing shit).

Those who say otherwise are usually broke and know deep down that given proper purchasing power, they too would prefer to use a $3k Macbook Pro than some POS Dell.

Same with android.

Everyone knows it is cope based on PP, it is just in poor taste to actually call it like it is (idc)

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