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Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

joincolossus.com

231–240 of 377 posts

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#231
It is interesting that the early shipping containerization boom resulted in a bubble in 1975 and had a new low around 1990.

1990 is when the real outsourcing mania started, which led to the destruction of most Western manufacturing. Apart from cheap Chinese trinkets the quality of life and real incomes have gotten worse in the West while the rich became richer.

So this is an excellent analogy for "AI": Finding a new and malicious application can revive the mania after an initial bubble pop while making societies worse. If we allow it, which does not have to be the case.

[As usual, under the assumption that "AI" works, of which there is little sign apart from summarizing scraped web pages.]

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#232
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you value self expression? I literally mean creating music for MYSELF. I don't really care if anyone else "values" it. I like to listen to it and I enjoy spending an evening(or maybe 10 minutes if it is just a silly idea) to create a song. But this means my incentive to "buy" music is greatly decreased. This is the trend I think we'll see increasing in the near future. Examples: https://suno.com/s/0gnj4aGD4jgVcpqs…

> Do you value self expression? Did you train the AI yourself? On your own music? Or was music scrapped from Net and blended in LLM?

Not only did they create an entirely new language of music notation, all instruments used were hand made by the same creator, including tanning the animal skins to be used as drum material, and insisting the music be recorded on wax drums to prevent any marring of the artistic vision via digital means.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#233
Something that's confused/annoyed me about the AI boom is that it's like we've learned to run before we learned to walk. For example, there are countless websites where you can generate a sophisticated, photorealistic image of anything you like, but there is no tool I know of that you can ask "give me a 16x16 PNG icon of an apple" and get exactly that. I know why—Neural networks excel at fixed size, organic data, but I don't think that makes it any less ridiculous. It also means that AI website generators are forced to generate assets with code when ordinary people would just use images/sound files (yes, I have really seen websites using webaudio synths for sound effects).

Hopefully the boom will slow down and we'll all slowly move away from Holy Shit Hype things and implement more boring, practical things. (although I feel like the world has shunned boring practical things for quite a while before)

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#234
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy entry not equals getting rich.

In fact one could argue it makes it harder; if the barrier to entry for making video games is lowered, more people will do it, and there's more competiton. But in the case of video games there's been similar things already happening; tooling, accessible and free game engines, online tutorials, ready-made assets etc have lowered the barrier to building games, and the internet, Steam, itch.io, etcetera have lowered the…

Yeah, you’re right.

Ease of entry brings more creative people into the industry, but over time it all boils down to ~5 hegemons, see FAANG - but those are disrupted over time by the next group (and eventually bought out by those hegemons).

Offtopic: I once read a comment that starting a company with the goal of exiting is like constantly thinking about death :)

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#235
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ironic if AI actually ended up destroying economic activity that's not destroying economic activity - it's removing a less efficient activity and replace it with a more efficient version. This produces economic surplus. Imagine saying this for someone digging a hole, that if they use a mechanical digger instead of a hand shovel, they'd destroy economic activity since it now cost less to dig that hole!

It's not that it's replacing one form of activity with a cheaper one, it's that it removes the transaction . Which means that now there's nothing to tax, and nothing to measure. As far as GDP is concerned, economic activity will have gone down, even though the same work is being accomplished differently.

If more value is being created more efficiently, in the end it’s just a question of coming up with taxation system designed for the new economy.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that it's replacing one form of activity with a cheaper one, it's that it removes the transaction . Which means that now there's nothing to tax, and nothing to measure. As far as GDP is concerned, economic activity will have gone down, even though the same work is being accomplished differently.

This sounds in awful lot like a cousin of the broken window fallacy. The fallacy being that when a careless kid breaks a window of a store, that we should celebrate because the glazier now has been paid to come out and do a job. Economic activity has increased by one measure! Should we go around breaking windows? Of course not.

It very much is a cousin of the broken window fallacy.

Bastiat's original point of the Parable of the Broken Window could be summed up by the aphorism "not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts". It's a caution to society to avoid relying too much on metrics, and to realize that sometimes positive metrics obscure actual negative outcomes in society.

It's very similar to the practice of startups funded by the same VC to all buy each others' products, regardless of whether they need them or not. At the end of the day, it's still the same pool of money, it has largely come around, little true economic value has been created: but large amounts of revenue has been booked, and this revenue can be used to attract other unsuspecting investors who look only at the metrics.

Or to the childcare paradox and the "Two Income Trap" identified by Elizabeth Warren. Start with a society of 1-income families, where one parent stays home to raise the kids and the other works. Now the other parent goes back to work. They now need childcare to look after the kids, and often a cleaner, gardener, meals out, etc. to manage the housework, very frequently taking up the whole income of the second parent. GDP has gone up tremendously through this arrangement: you add the second parent's salary to the national income, and then you also the cost of childcare, housework, gardening, all of those formerly-unpaid tasks that are now taxable transactions. But the net real result is that the kids are raised by someone other than their parents, and the household stuff is put away in places that the parents probably would not have chosen themselves.

Regardless, society does look at the metrics, and usually weights them heavier than qualitative outcomes they represent, sometimes resulting in absurdly non-optimal situations.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#237
post #151
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's not technical, it's due to uber having spent incredible amounts of money into marketing.

It is technical :-) The Uber app is a lot more polished (and deep) than the average taxi app.

That's why you use Uber because the app has more depth and is more polished?

Most people use it for price, ability to get driver quickly, some for safety and many because of brand.

Having a functioning app with an easy interface helps onboard and funnel people but it's not a moat just an on ram like a phone number many taxis have.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#238
Practically speaking, it's going to be both more impactful than we think and less impactful than we think at the same time.

On the one hand, there are a lot of fields that this form of AI can and will either replace or significantly reduce the number of jobs in. Entry level web development and software engineering is at serious risk, as is copywriting, design and art for corporate clients, research assistant roles and a lot of grunt work in various creative fields. If the output of your work is heavily represented in these models, or the quality of the output matters less than having something, ANYTHING to fill a gap on a page/in an app, then you're probably in trouble. If your work involves collating a bunch of existing resources, then you're probably in trouble.

At the same time, it's not going to be anywhere near as powerful as certain companies think. AI can help software engineers in generating boilerplate code or setup things that others have done millions of times before, but the quality of its output for new tasks is questionable at best, especially when the language or framework isn't heavily represented in the model. And any attempts to replace things like lawyers, doctors or other such professions with AI alone are probably doomed to fail, at least for the moment. If getting things wrong is a dealbreaker that will result in severe legal consequences, AI will never be able to entirely replace humans in that field.

Basically, AI is great for grunt work, and fields where the actual result doesn't need to be perfect (or even good). It's not a good option for anything with actual consequences for screwing up, or where the knowledge needed is specialist enough that the model won't contain it.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#239
post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you believe that music made from samples is not original?

Most of the courts don’t think they are. Early rap beats used lots of samples. Some of the most popular hip hop songs made $0 for the artists as they had to pay royalties on those samples.

No one cares about what the law thinks about art though, particularly for personal consumption or sharing with a small group. Copyright law doesn't even pretend to be slightly just or aligned with reality.

Re: Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say this but I see ai generated ads, graphics, etc. daily nowadays and it doesn't seem like it affects at all people going or not going to buy what these people are proposing.

Case in point.. I listen to my own AI generated music now like 90% of the time.

And I instantly switch off any YouTube video with either "AI"-plagiarized background music or with an "AI"-plagiarized voiceover that copies someone like Attenborough.

I wrote the above paragraph before searching, but of course the voice theft is already automated:

https://www.fineshare.com/ai-voice-generator/david-attenboro...

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