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SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

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Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#231
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mostly hope that Blue Origin will be a worthy competitor. For me what this shows that the most important thing for a CEO to be successful is to have money, a vison (no matter how unrealistic or unnecessary) and a cult personality. Nothing else matters. Also it shows that with enough virtual money (I.e.: massively overblown Tesla stock) you can do just about anything.

Blue Origin was founded before SpaceX, and Jeff Bezos had way more money back then. And when Elon Musk founded SpaceX few people had heard of him and he wasn't even a billionaire. Tesla didn't exist yet, so there was no "massively overblown stock." And where is the "unrealistic vision?" Looks like it turned out to be pretty realistic to me.

Musk has a self-destructive streak where his ambition exceeds his understanding. Examples are over-automation of Tesla Model 3 production, autonomous vehicles without Lidar, and the Cybertruck.

Will Starship every carry a large enough payload to justify the launch cost? I'm skeptical. Musk's Mars fixation is nuts.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#232
post #35

It was a significant progress, but I won't call it "nailed it". As there was an damage or explosion on re-entry where the skirt of the starship got damaged. And we could see pretty significant damage on one of the fins. Nailing it would be without the things above.

The explosion was unexpected and (as far as I know at the moment) unexplained, but they flew the mission at the edge of the envelope, and with a variety of different materials/missing bits on purpose, to better understand where the edge is. Everything that happened (maybe even including the explosion, we'll see in the final analysis) was, as far as we know, within the plan. The biggest can't-miss milestone was the fl…

> The explosion was unexpected

Is it really unexpected that an extremely hot metal pressure tank will rupture when plunged into water?

Since the ship is designed to be caught by a tower and not be plunged into water at all, it doesn't seem like this would be an issue in normal operations.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#233
post #79

And maybe more interesting. How much did it cost them to get this far vs the sls?

You can't really compare them because SLS was a jobs program intended to spread out contracts across many states by reusing suppliers from shuttle programs. Cheap? No. Wasteful? also no. Most of that money went back into those economies.

> Wasteful? also no. Most of that money went back into those economies.

If the government 100B to dig a big hole and fill it up again, that money would also "go back into those economies". Does that mean it wouldn't be wasteful?

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#234
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Did you ever make the effort to ask why he did those things? There’s a possibility that the person who aimed high for team humanity with SpaceX, Tesla and Neuralink was doing exactly the same thing in the examples you named.

https://www.impactcounter.com/dashboard?view=table&sort=titl...

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#235
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The first mars expeditions will probably be stocked with a thousand tons of gear, enough to easily last a guy 5 years. > The Martian is a vision for a 2035 mission from 2011. We seem likely to beat that! What, exactly, is that guy doing for those five years? We don't know how to terraform Mars, and it's questionable what having someone on the surface will add to the knowledge we have of surface composition. And the…

https://idlewords.com/2025/02/the_shape_of_a_mars_mission.ht...

From this:

> The effect of this no-abort condition is to make Mars mission design acutely risk-averse.

"Acutely risk-averse" is not SpaceX.

And being acutely risk-averse also underscores my point. If we are actually acutely risk-averse, we aren't going from "still test-flighting and developing the launch vehicle" to "manned mission" in 9.5 years.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#236

Incredible achievement, but what is more incredible is how many people (including almost all of my friends circle) have started rooting for SpaceX to fail due to the shenanigans of its founder. I think as a culture we've lost the ability to compartmentalize. We should be able to criticize and even despise the head of a company, and at the same time celebrate when the intelligence and hard work of the countless smart…

[flagged]

Spacex under Elon Musk is the precursor to Weyland-Yutani.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#237

Starship is like AI/LLMs in that success would revolutionize the world, but technological failure is very possible. And despite the confident predictions on the internets, we don't know which it's going to be. After the Shuttle program ended in failure, work on reusable launch systems stopped for decades. A similar thing would happen if Starship fails. Space would remain the province of the military and large governm…

Why do people talk about data centers in space? Heat management is wayyy harder in space.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wikipedia: > After a multi-phase design effort, on April 16, 2021, NASA selected SpaceX to develop Starship HLS and deliver it to near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) prior to arrival of the crew for use on the Artemis III mission. The delivery requires that Starship HLS be refueled in Earth orbit before boosting to the NRHO, and this refueling requires a pre-positioned propellant depot in Earth orbit that is filled by…

The mission is wildly more complicated than the Apollo missions. There's a whole oddball-orbit space station that has to be placed as a way-station, for one thing, and none of that's happened yet (remember how long it took to build the ISS?). Also, landing all your return fuel instead of leaving it in orbit, so a way heavier lander (with a smaller return payload than Apollo!), which is a pain in the ass. Multiple spa…

> landing all of your return fuel

The fuel that is landed is used to get back from the lunar surface to lunar orbit, not to return to Earth. That fuel stays with Orion in NRHO.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Apollo missions landed two crew members in a tin can with extreme limits on what weight they could bring with them in either direction. A single trip launch will always be constrained like this due to the tyranny of the rocket equation. A modular mission system with multiple launches is the best way to expand capabilities and enable things like landing larger payloads for more advanced or long-term missions.

IIRC, the expected return payload for this is lighter than Apollo. In no small part because they're dropping all their return fuel and their entire return vehicle into the Moon's gravity well, rather than leaving it in orbit. Subjecting themselves to extra abuse from the good ol' rocket equation. One of many wacked-out things about the plan.

The vehicle that returns to Earth is Orion which stays in NRHO and does not bring its fuel to the lunar surface.

Return payload constraints are probably from using Orion as the return vehicle. Mass to the surface is much higher than Apollo since that is launched separate from the crew.

Re: SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight

#240
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you said, flight 11 has the last V2 and since V3 is not compatible with the existing pad A (only the new pad B that is being finished atm), it would be a nice opportunity to try the ship catch because cratering the old pad A and/or its tower wouldn't be that much of a deal. The entire Pad A has to be replaced anyways.

What did they change about the pad between 2 and 3?

Not sure about the pad, but the V3 ship has the catch points on the fins for example.
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