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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

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Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#231

Post by righthand »

AstroBen wrote: post #205
righthand wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How is investing in something that improves my productivity and output quality a downward career slope? > I'm not sure how long we'll need someone in the middle to actually review the code You don’t think relying on a system you yourself are predicting will replace you isn’t investing in a downward slope. Wait until you find out Llms are helping suppress your wages. > this is on them for being lazy. Just like you g…

Not using LLMs doesn't make them go away. Whether they suppress wages or replace anyone is completely out of my control. Avoiding them just means I'd be producing below my potential > you became lazy about writing code I haven't, though. I still do the same amount of work except now I get more done. Now more of my energy goes into architecture, testing, specs, making sure it's built well instead of the lower level wi…

I have no goal to make them go away. My goal is to not use them because I don’t have to. Using Llms removes your agency to not use them. You become more reliant on using them.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#232

Post by righthand »

quesera wrote: post #123
righthand wrote: post #70

> Homelessness skyrockets because people can't pay their rent, but now it's whole families on the streets > We start to see unrest and/or riots against "the rich" because there are no jobs, and people are being evicted > Crime goes up significantly Arguably once a good percentage of people become unhoused, we are no longer living in a fair society. IT SHOULD break down into violence. But then so say "Crime goes up si…

How about "activities we consider crimes today"? A society always exists, even in a total dissolution of the previously-existing social order (which we are not truly contemplating here).

Yes we are not contemplating that but the article was.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#233

Post by ropable »

I read this article and thought "Thanks heavens the US Federal government is appointing a highly-qualified and unbiased head of their Bureau of Labor Statistics so we all have perfect confidence in their future employment numbers".

/s

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#237

Post by evklein »

joquarky wrote: post #223
evklein wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you believe there's a threshold to how good this stuff can get, or do you think it's all infinite upside?

A materialist could logically conclude that it still has some way to go.

Well I'd probably consider myself a materialist but I'm not sure I'd agree. The evidence to me seems that it can really only come from two places: additional compute or new breakthroughs in AI learning. Compute's coming, certainly, but that only has the potential to improve things if it's added in conjunction with a commensurate AI breakthrough. I think the trend in improvement for transformer could be logistic, not exponential, like a lot of the snake-oil salesman like to state. And while there's plenty of evidence for compute there isn't much for the AI breakthrough that leads to an exponential jump, and if it does exist it's a trade secret, so until we know we don't know.
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