Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nothing except massive data centers full of GPU compute resources paid for by VC money. Wait, that's actually pretty similar...
I'm starting to think that making a bunch of tech companies the most valuable companies on Earth, and tying their value to everyone's ability to retire so the number must always go up was perhaps not the wisest thing to have done.
Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
231–240 of 447 posts
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#232I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
The dot-com was a bubble because investors pulled money and belief at the first sign of trouble. The landscape has changed dramatically now. Investors and VCs have learnt if we stick with winners and growth companies, the payoffs are massive. We also have more automatic, retail and foreign money flowing into the market. Buy the dip is a phenomenon that didn't exist at the scale it is now. Pre-2015 if Big Money pulled…
> Investors and VCs have learnt if we stick with winners and growth companies, the payoffs are massive.
Well... yes and no. 2021 wasn't that long ago.
> So, it's foolish to apply 2000 parallels to now
The stock market and other financial stuff is of course different. The fundamental trend not necessarily though. It took awhile for anyone to figure out how to directly build a highly profitable internet based business back then for AI it seems more or less the same so far.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#233I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
> divorced from any kind of fundamentals Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have we seen any examples of any of these companies turning a profit yet even at $200+/mo? My understanding is that most, if not all, are still deeply in the red. Please feel free to correct me (not sarcastic - being genuine). If that is the case at some point the music is going to stop and they will either perish or they will have to crank up their subscription costs.
I am absolutely benefitting from them subsidizing my usage to give me Claude Code at $200/month. However, even if they 10x the price its still going to be worth it for me personally.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve always dwelled over $5 a month subscriptions for iPhone apps due to subscription fatigue. I find myself signing up for $200 AI subscriptions without a moments hesitation.
What do you do with $200/mo subscription to Anthropic? I’d consider myself a power user and I’ve never come close to a rate limit on the $20 subscription.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#236Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm easily getting $10K/month of value from my Anthropic subscription. (Rough estimate of how much I would have paid someone else to create the things I've (co)created with Claude Code so far.) If this is a bubble, I just hope I can finish all the projects I want to finish before it pops (or before they raise their prices to $9K/month because they read this comment.)
> I'm easily getting $10K/month of value from my Anthropic subscription. Are those things created by Claude actually making you that much in real money every month? Because the amount of money it would cost to pay someone to create something, and the value that something brings to you once it's made are largely unrelated.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
We have AI, a marvel that might change the arc of humanity and an epoch in our timeline. Fire, wheel etc. and AI.
I'll choose the wheel over using a country's worth of electricity to parrot unusable AI slop to gullible fools.
Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#239Re: Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf
#240I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
> divorced from any kind of fundamentals Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.