231–240 of 340 posts
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Which is a bad idea because...?
>The big economies of the eurozone have been in constant stagnation for the last 15 years. Eurozone doesn't know how to manage the economy successfully. The euro has been a failure. We went from somewhat parity with the US in 2006 to lagging quite behind them 20 years later.
My bank account disagrees.
I hope Bulgaria and the EU have learned from past mistakes (I don't think they have). While EU and the Euro had good intentions and prospect, it turned out to be a disaster for some of us. Greece is in a recession for more than 16 years now, with no visible exit, because (one of many reasons of course) it couldn't devalue its currency back in 2009. Now we might speculate that Greece couldn't have avoided this, even i…
Greece is not in a recession, it hasn't been in one for a while. It's in austerity mode which I do agree it's a too blunt of a tool to use for recovery but alas those were the terms for Greece to get a bailout after its debt mismanagement (including lying in their official government reports for many years).
> Now we might speculate that Greece couldn't have avoided this, even if it weren't for the Euro, but having lived this from the inside, I think that it wouldn't be that painful.
And why do you think that? It's a small country, with a small economy, accruing so much debt that wasn't used for development which in turn didn't generate taxes in return. Notwithstanding the cultural practice of tax evasion, it was going to implode either way.
It would be probably as painful, or more painful, to be shackled to the IMF's terms (which always have included austerity) while holding your own currency which would be quasi-worthless because no one wants to buy your bonds unless you paid massive interests. Debt repayment premiums would be a massive headache either way in the Greek budget (with or without the euro), devaluing your own currency would create a lot of pain for the people since Greece imports a lot of more advanced stuff from other EU members, and also would erode all savings from a relatively old population.
I don't agree with the austerity bullshit, just to be clear, but I don't think there was any solution that wouldn't be painful, maybe different pains but it was never going to be much better.
I say that as someone who lived through multiple Brazilian crisis, including four currency changes to tackle hyperinflation, lived under IMF-imposed terms.
I understand the pain but in both cases (Brazil, and Greece) the absolute mismanagement of the state's finances for decades required bowing down to the powers that be (IMF, ECB, etc.) to save the country from bankruptcy.
I hope Bulgaria and the EU have learned from past mistakes (I don't think they have). While EU and the Euro had good intentions and prospect, it turned out to be a disaster for some of us. Greece is in a recession for more than 16 years now, with no visible exit, because (one of many reasons of course) it couldn't devalue its currency back in 2009. Now we might speculate that Greece couldn't have avoided this, even i…
The Greek economy is still in recession? The EC seems to think it is doing fairly well: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-e... Certainly better than Germany (however comparable the two economies can be): https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-e...
The real economy, the one that affects people's lives, is still something like 25% below what was pre-2009. In essence people are still 25% poorer than they were before 2009. That's the worst recession EVER recorded in recent history. Worse than the 1930s.
That's why Greece is only slightly above Bulgaria (yet) in real purchasing power compared to other EU countries.
Don't get me wrong. There were a lot of benefits for most of the EU countries, but the lack of common economic strategy, and regulation prooved catastrophic for some.
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> And its debt shows that. Their governments have had a big part of the blame. Hell, at one point they didnt have enough money for citizens to withdraw from banks. Sure but so do the creditors. If you keep giving mortgages to anyone with a drivers license that's on you buddy. At almost no point is there enough money for citizens to withdraw their money. Modern banks don't keep their assets as cash.
> If you keep giving mortgages to anyone with a drivers license that's on you buddy. Isn't this the USA system?
This went swimmingly for everyone involved, with Greece now in more debt than ever (debt went from 145.45% of GDP to 209.40% of GDP). And fascist parties going from virtually non-existent to mainstays.
Adding low-efficiency countries like those in southeastern Europe is great for the EU's major exporter - Germany, because it adds more customers who have Euros, and because it devalues the Euro, which means more exports. Better yet, because of Euro the new joiners can't devalue their currency and get their exports high enough to restart the economy, with only viable option being more in debt and/or leaving for Germany, while obliterating the local industries. Win-win-win. For the EU exporters.
So, yes, let's celebrate Bulgaria joining Hotel EU, where food is great, your bill grows exponentially, but you can't ever leave. By the end you'll just end up as a pool boy.
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Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…
Another Polish here: truth is, whether we have a single currency or not doesn't matter as much as people think it does. For most people, it's about symbolism, not about practical economic consequences. I guarantee you that average person has no clue what it really means for the economy to adopt euro. BTW the argument "let's wait for our economy to catch up with Germany" is just deceitful because there will always be…
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I think there's a reality for (visiting) consumers, Schengen has more value than the currency union, at least if you're not a user of cash. My experiences in non-Euro, Schengen countries is that all payment terminals offer me the choice to pay in Euro or the local currency. In many cases in tourist areas (of Czechia, Poland, and Bulgaria) I only encountered terminals that asked for payment in Euro.
Schengen is incredibly useful, especially if you have to transit through several countries. It's also true that the decrease in cash usage has reduced the benefit of the euro. However, the benefits of a single currency go beyond cash. It's also about understanding prices. You see a sign for coffee and it's 1199 Hungarian Forint -- or it's 14.99 Polish złoty. It's not clear at all what those numbers mean. Sure it's po…
Also in Europe people use the likes of Revolut to set up virtual native currency accounts on the fly (with IBAN) with FX free transactions up to a certain level per month dependent on tier.
I hope Bulgaria and the EU have learned from past mistakes (I don't think they have). While EU and the Euro had good intentions and prospect, it turned out to be a disaster for some of us. Greece is in a recession for more than 16 years now, with no visible exit, because (one of many reasons of course) it couldn't devalue its currency back in 2009. Now we might speculate that Greece couldn't have avoided this, even i…
> Greece is in a recession for more than 16 years now, with no visible exit, because (one of many reasons of course) it couldn't devalue its currency back in 2009. Greece is not in a recession, it hasn't been in one for a while. It's in austerity mode which I do agree it's a too blunt of a tool to use for recovery but alas those were the terms for Greece to get a bailout after its debt mismanagement (including lying…
Also the IMF was also part of the Greek debt restructuring deal, so it wasn't that different from what Brazil or other countries have experienced.
I am not against the Euro, far from it. But the EU could have handled this crisis much better for the benefit of both Greece and itself. The Greek economy wouldn't have collapsed, and the anti-Euro sentiment which led to the rise of ultra-right-wing parties in EU wouldn't grow that much.
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The US has a much more integrated economy - businesses operate nationwide, employees routinely move across the country, and most economic policy is set centrally. And even then there are still downsides where e.g. interest rates set to suit the national economy exacerbate the problems of the rust belt.
> businesses operate nationwide, employees routinely move across the country Could you elaborate on what you mean? I've not run a business, but from the people I know who do complain similarly about cross-EU and cross-US-state business. Like the company based in Texas who got their first employee in New York. Suddenly they needed some sort of presence in New York State, get a separate insurance, and accountants for N…
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Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…
Another Polish here: truth is, whether we have a single currency or not doesn't matter as much as people think it does. For most people, it's about symbolism, not about practical economic consequences. I guarantee you that average person has no clue what it really means for the economy to adopt euro. BTW the argument "let's wait for our economy to catch up with Germany" is just deceitful because there will always be…
Why would that be a good thing?
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It's a taxpayer's money so why wouldn't the taxpayers have a point if they think that their money is not spent best and, in the context of the global situation, not really efficient at all in making the quality of life of EU citizens any better? To paraphrase this differently: if I as an investor gave you 100M EUR and 24 months, would you be happy to spend it for changing a frigging cap on the bottle or would you rat…
I am an EU taxpayer. Caps stay bolted on. > To paraphrase this differently: if I as an investor gave you 100M EUR and 24 months, would you be happy to spend it for changing a frigging cap on the bottle or would you rather invest that money and time+people resources on something else? Grifter 101 – “ think about what we’d be able to achieve if you did X instead of Y, comrade!”.