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Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

garymarcus.substack.com

231–240 of 331 posts

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#231
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not about finding the most effective solution, it’s about showing that they “understand” the problem. Could they write the algorithm if it were not in their training set?

If that's the point, shouldn't they ask the model to explain the principle for any number of discs? What's the benefit of a concrete application?

Because that would prove absolutely nothing. There are numerous examples of tower of Hanoi explanations in the training set.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a slave to capital. I am a slave to the harsh nature of the world. I get too hot in summer and too cold in winter. I die of hunger. I am harassed by critters of all sorts. And when my bed breaks, to keep my fragile spine from straining at night, I _want_ some trees to be cut, some mattresses to be provisioned, some designers to be provisioned etc. And capital is what gets me that, from people I will never me…

Considering capitalism is a very new phenomenon in human history, how do you think people survived and thrived for the other 248000 years? It's as ludicrous to believe that capitalism is some kind of force of nature as it is to believe kings were chosen by god.

That depends on how you define your terms. A pro-capital laissez-faire policy is new, sure.

But the first civilizations in the world around 3000BC had trade, money, banking, capital accumulation, divison of labour etc.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#233
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s the argument here that he’s not considering all the information regarding GenAI? That there’s a trend to his opinion? If I consider all the evidence regarding gravity, all my papers will be “gravity is real”. In what ways is he only choosing what he wants to hear?

Replied elsewhere in the thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44279283 To your example about gravity, I argue that he goes from "gravity is real" to "therefore we can't fly", and "yeah maybe some people can but that's not really solving gravity and they need to go down eventually!"

If your argument about my gravity example holds. That’s not really a good argument. Between Newtons death and the first powered flight was almost 200 years. Being all negative about gravity would be reasonable since a bunch of stuff had to happen.

I’m not sure I buy your longer argument either.

I have a feeling the nay sayers are right on this. The next leap in AI isn’t something we’re going to recognise. (Obviously it’s possible - humans exist)

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#234
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect human memory consists of a lot more bits than LLMs encode.

I rest my case — the question concerns a quality, not a quantity. These juvenile comparisons are mere excuses.

Oh we've shifted the goal post to quality now, very good! That does rest the case.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#235
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to read everything that Gary writes with the particular axe to grind he has in mind: neurosymbolic AI. That's his specialism, and he essentially has a chip in his shoulder about the attention probabilistic approaches like LLMs are getting, and their relative success. You can see this in this article too. The real question you should be asking is if there is a practical limitation in LLMs and LRMs revealed by…

>with tool use A LLM with tool use can solve anything. It is interesting to try and measure its capabilities without tools.

I don't think the first is true at all, unless you imagine some powerful oracle tools.

I think the second is interesting for comparing models, but not interesting for determining the limits of what models can automate in practice.

It's the prospect of automating labour which makes AI exciting and revolutionary, not their ability when arbitrarily restricted.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#236

> 1. Humans have trouble with complex problems and memory demands. True! But incomplete. We have every right to expect machines to do things we can’t. [...] If we want to get to AGI, we will have to better. I don't get this argument. The paper is about "whether RLLMs can think". If we grant "humans make these mistakes too", but also "we still require this ability in our definition of thinking", aren't we saying "thin…

Humans use tools to extend their abilities. LLM can do the same. In this paper they didn’t allow tool use. When others gave the tower of hanoi task to llms with tool use, like a python env, they were able to complete the task.

But the Tower of Hanoi can be solved without "tools" by humans, simply by understanding the problem, thinking about the solution, and writing it out. Having the LLM shell out to a Python example that it "wrote" (or rather, "pasted" since surely a Python solution to the Tower of Hanoi was part of its training set) is akin to a human Googling "program to solve Tower of Hanoi", copy-pasting and running the solution. Yes the LLM has "reasoned" that the solution to the problem is call out to a solution that it "knows" is out there, but that's not really "thinking" about how to solve a problem in the human sense.

What happens when some novel Tower of Hanoi-esque puzzle is presented and there's nothing available in its training set to reference as an executable solution? A human can reason about and present a solution, but an LLM? Ehh...

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#237
> just as humans shouldn’t serve as calculators

But they definitely could and were [0]. You just employ multiple, and cross check - with the ability of every single one to also double check and correct errors.

LLMs cannot double check, and multiples won't really help (I suspect ultimately for the same reason - exponential multiplication of errors [1])

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)

[1] https://www.tobyord.com/writing/half-life

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#238
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans use tools to extend their abilities. LLM can do the same. In this paper they didn’t allow tool use. When others gave the tower of hanoi task to llms with tool use, like a python env, they were able to complete the task.

But the Tower of Hanoi can be solved without "tools" by humans, simply by understanding the problem, thinking about the solution, and writing it out. Having the LLM shell out to a Python example that it "wrote" (or rather, "pasted" since surely a Python solution to the Tower of Hanoi was part of its training set) is akin to a human Googling "program to solve Tower of Hanoi", copy-pasting and running the solution. Yes…

LLMs are perfectly capable of writing code to solve problems that are not in their training set. I ask LLMs to write code for niche problems that you won't find answers to just by Googling all the time. The LLMs usually get it right.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#239
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the Tower of Hanoi can be solved without "tools" by humans, simply by understanding the problem, thinking about the solution, and writing it out. Having the LLM shell out to a Python example that it "wrote" (or rather, "pasted" since surely a Python solution to the Tower of Hanoi was part of its training set) is akin to a human Googling "program to solve Tower of Hanoi", copy-pasting and running the solution. Yes…

LLMs are perfectly capable of writing code to solve problems that are not in their training set. I ask LLMs to write code for niche problems that you won't find answers to just by Googling all the time. The LLMs usually get it right.

> LLMs are perfectly capable of writing code to solve problems that are not in their training set.

Examples of these problems? You'll probably find that they're simply compositions of things already in the training set. For example, you might think that "here's a class containing an ID field and foobar field. Make a linked list class that stores inserted items in reverse foobar order with the ID field breaking ties" is something "not in" the training set, but it's really just a composition of the "make a linked list class" and "sort these things based on a field" problems.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It puts LLMs in an impossible position; if they are right, they memorized it, if they are wrong, they cannot reason. Both of those can be true at the same time though. They memorize a lot of things, but its fuzzy and when they remember wrong they cannot fix it via reasoning.

It's more than fuzzy, they are packing exabytes, perhaps zetabytes of training data into a few terabytes. Without any reasoning ability it must be divine intervention that they ever get anything right...

It is divine intervention if you believe human minds are the product of a divine creator. Most of the attribution of miraculous reasoning ability on the part of LLMs I would attribute to pareidolia on the part of their human evaluators. I don’t think we’re much closer at all to having an AI which can replace an average minimum wage full-time worker, who will work largely unsupervised but ask their manager for help when needed, without screwing anything up.

We have LLMs that can produce copious text but cannot stop themselves from attempting to solve a problem they have no idea how to solve and making a mess of things as a result. This puts an LLM on the level of an overly enthusiastic toddler at best.

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