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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#231

Post by franktankbank »

mantas wrote: post #194
franktankbank wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking lately that we don't properly account for things like security. I've also been thinking lately that a lot of people have terrible ethics and are more than happy to engage in nepotism and or fraud. Don't know what to do about it personally, I just try to keep my needs small and be happy with what I've got while trying to prepare my own children to have some level of a good life.

More like common man does not think long term (and I'd say rightfully so). While democratic regime embraces populist hedonistic solutions. Who cares about defense capabilities 10 or 50 years down the line? Lots of people in West had a good run outsourcing everything. But once there's nothing else to outsource and IP to sell... It's not gonna be pretty. Next generations in West will have to work very hard to recover f…

Hate to agree.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#232

Post by seanhunter »

Clubber wrote: post #185
esafak wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not an existential issue; many former hegemons, such as the United Kingdom, continue to exist. Coalitions exist to ward off hegemons.

>such as the United Kingdom, continue to exist They were really close to not existing. France stopped existing, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, all stopped existing. China, Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, New Guinea, Guam, East Timor, and Nauru all…

Of your list I've been to France, Austria, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg, France (you seem to have it twice for some reason), Hong Kong, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.

They all most definitely did not stop existing.

Also I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about when you say the United Kingdom came really close to not existing.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#233

Post by like_any_other »

zasz wrote: post #187
like_any_other wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. It's annoying Americans were given only two choices - offshoring is great and let's keep doing it, and, as you say, the opposite, meth-fueled let's bring back manufacturing overnight. The kind of slow and steady protection and promotion of home-grown industry that China and most of Asia so successfully used…

That IS what Biden was trying to do though with the CHIPS Incentive Act. He was trying to onshore production of semiconductors in a partnership with TSMC. Didn't do him any favors, and Harris lost the state of Arizona anyway. Americans had the choice between a party that was serious about trying to onshore some manufacturing and a party that wasn't, and it made the wrong choice because vibes, basically.

> because vibes, basically

This may be more accurate than you realize. Both Democrat and old Republican party rhetoric and policies were pro-globalization/offshoring, with the occasional exception such as CHIPS (and corn subsidies). It's not surprising nobody believed they were changing direction, if for every "we're bringing semiconductors back", they heard ten "your car is German your phone is Chinese your tacos are Mexican, how dare you interfere with glorious Free Trade!"

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#234

Post by bilbo0s »

bluGill wrote: post #140
npiano wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A genuine question, presuming no correct answer: what is to be done about it? China is reportedly on track to run more than 50% of global manufacturing by 2030, if the World Bank is correct. What would you do to act against this? Is doing nothing acceptable?

I would act against China - because China is making political moves that I do not like. (they are supporting Russia in Ukraine, they are building up to invade Taiwan, they are supporting terror in the middle east...) By acting against China that means I applaud moving manufacturing to Vietnam. I want to help Botswana grow - and I wish there were more countries in Africa I could name that seem to be on a good path (I…

By acting against China that means I applaud moving manufacturing to Vietnam

and

last time I brought up Africa someone from there said their country was an exception

Making what are essentially strategic decisions in this "shoot from the hip" fashion is what lands us repeatedly in these situations. By way of illustration, let me try one from the 1980's out on you:

"By acting against Iran that means I applaud men like Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden"

(In fairness to the americans who made that colossal blunder, I'll assume that, to them, it seemed a good idea at the time. They were simply not long term thinkers. So no one ever asked, "Hmm, what comes next though?")

We, as a people, need to start thinking a bit further ahead than the ends of our noses.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#235

Post by gambiting »

gjsman-1000 wrote: post #122
gambiting wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Do we sacrifice a democracy for the dollar? What democracy? Whose democracy? Trump just blamed Zelensky for the war in Ukraine again. The entire administration keeps saying they will make Canada the 51st state and "destroy canada economically". They want to take Greenland by force. I don't think America cares much about democracy anymore, only dollars. China will take Taiwan and US will will keep buying chips like…

And when a Democrat is back in power in 2029, and China invades in 2030, what will she do? Protect Taiwan and destroy the US economy as we endure the equivalent of an infinite tariff; or appear weak by saying “that’s a shame”, even if China is doing a Great Leap Forward on the population?

I don't know and I wouldn't even hazard a guess. My entire observation right now as a non American is that America doesn't care about democracy anymore.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#236

Post by pjc50 »

PaulHoule wrote: post #127

I think of environmental conflicts that disappears in the US thanks to manufacturing moving to China. In the 1990s there were numerous manufacturing plants in the US (two on the South Hill of Ithaca alone) that were found to be contaminated with solvents like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trichloroethylene People thought it was great stuff, you wouldn't believe how hard it is to get cutting grease off things after yo…

Yeah, it's underrated how the Chinese boom just did not care for environmental impact, and because political organizing is banned the public are limited in how much they can complain about it.

It used to be a thing that people were importing massive quantities of baby formula to China because they didn't trust locally manufactured stuff.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#237

Post by toomuchtodo »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #214
toomuchtodo wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americans are cosplaying (voting their belief system, not what they'll do, the "revealed preference"), as they do as farmers [1] [2] [3] [4], as they do as "rural Americans" [5]. It is an identity crisis for tens of millions of people [6]. Their crisis is our shared political turmoil. Happiness is reality minus expectations. From the piece: "The people most excited about this new tariff policy tend to be those who’ve…

While simultaneously needing migrant labor with lower minimum wages and labor laws for agricultural workers.

The control and status they've had is diminishing, and they are taking it out on the rest of us. Regardless, it will be lost. People are tricky. Onward.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#238

Post by throwawaymaths »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #164
cbg0 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try attacking the points he made in the article instead of him.

What attacks? Fwiw: "he's likely to be right about a lot of things". Perhaps I should have been more specific: I think his analyses are mostly correct, his predictions are not. Subscribe to ground news so that you know what historically a news sources biases are.

For example: "you can't imagine the cheap Chinese robots coming online"... Then what's stopping an American manufacturer from buying a Chinese robot, taking the tariff hit once, then manufacturing domestically with no tariff?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#240

Post by Clubber »

seanhunter wrote: post #232
Clubber wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>such as the United Kingdom, continue to exist They were really close to not existing. France stopped existing, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, all stopped existing. China, Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, New Guinea, Guam, East Timor, and Nauru all…

Of your list I've been to France, Austria, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg, France (you seem to have it twice for some reason), Hong Kong, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. They all most definitely did not stop existing. Also I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about when you say the United Kingdom came really close to not existing.

>I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about when you say the United Kingdom came really close to not existing.

Battle of Britain, Battle of France?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Britain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France

>They all most definitely did not stop existing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German-occupied_Europe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_territories_acquired_b...

You didn't study WW2 in high school? It monumentally shaped the current world order.

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