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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

231–240 of 319 posts

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the problem, and stick with me here, is that we have people everywhere. So, as a consequence of that, having broad opportunities for everyone to earn a decent living, in more than a handful of places in the entire country, is an unambiguously good thing. And like, maybe this is pink-haired commmie-scum thought of me to say, but perhaps you shouldn't need to leave your childhood home, friends, support system, and…

What exactly does society even with a strong safety net (which I support) owe anyone? Universal healthcare? Yes. A method to enable people to have safe shelter? Yes. Even public transportation to get to jobs - Yes. I’m even in favor of affordable public college education. But everyone should be able to own a home? No. People today are living all across the country and not be homeless and the people who live in the po…

> But everyone should be able to own a home? No.

Do you seriously want to turn this discussion into lower-class rental / apartment discussion? Okay, fine. Lets go there.

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/average-rent-by-yea...

Average rent in 1980 was $243/month. Average rent in 2025 is $1397/month.

For those who cannot afford a home, life has gotten worse. For those who _can_ afford a home, their life has gotten worse. It doesn't matter where you plan to pivot this discussion, its all bad numbers for your discussion point.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#232
post #220
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Median income in constant dollars in the US was about 60k 40 years ago and now is about 80k. We can buy a lot better stuff with those dollars too.

Now check housing prices over that time.

People don't buy houses by writing checks for the purchase price. They get a mortgage and pay monthly which is dependent on both housing price and interest. With a lot of hand waving that number isn't much worse than the 70s/80s because interest rates were high then.

However, that's cyclical and we're in a really crappy local minima for affordability due to a rapid increase in interest rates.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the problem, and stick with me here, is that we have people everywhere. So, as a consequence of that, having broad opportunities for everyone to earn a decent living, in more than a handful of places in the entire country, is an unambiguously good thing. And like, maybe this is pink-haired commmie-scum thought of me to say, but perhaps you shouldn't need to leave your childhood home, friends, support system, and…

What exactly does society even with a strong safety net (which I support) owe anyone? Universal healthcare? Yes. A method to enable people to have safe shelter? Yes. Even public transportation to get to jobs - Yes. I’m even in favor of affordable public college education. But everyone should be able to own a home? No. People today are living all across the country and not be homeless and the people who live in the po…

> What exactly does society even with a strong safety net (which I support) owe anyone? Universal healthcare? Yes. A method to enable people to have safe shelter? Yes. Even public transportation to get to jobs - Yes. I’m even in favor of affordable public college education.

Cosigned all above.

> But everyone should be able to own a home? No.

I think insofar as property is treated as an investment vehicle, everyone should be able to own something. Like, the difference between a mortgage and a rental contract in terms of personal economics couldn't be further from one another. One creates wealth, one transfers wealth and concentrates it.

"Can you afford to buy a home" as an economic metric doesn't mean necessarily that you should buy a home and you are a poor if you haven't or simply choose not to. That's fine. However, owning a home is a significant economic data point because it's a large investment to make that requires access to okay credit, and that once done, benefits the homeowner financially decades into the future. When I got a mortgage, an insured one with no money down even, my credit immediately went down to account for having a loan, but then right afterwards jumped almost 20% in a 3 month period, even though I did nothing differently apart from paying into a mortgage instead of paying rent.

Alternatively, reform the housing market so it functions as... well, a market. A house shouldn't necessarily appreciate in value over time, and the fact that it's expected to is... strange. One could argue that if nothing has appreciably changed in your neighborhood since you bought your house, it should sell for ballpark about the same price as what you paid for it, unless you did some substantial renovations or something. And even then... if you're just making it more suited to your tastes, probably not?

In other words make houses... well, houses. Not investment vehicles.

> People today are living all across the country and not be homeless and the people who live in the poorest states repeatedly vote for politicians that want to cut government services and cut the safety nets. Right now they are cheering DOGE. Why should I feel sorry for rural America? They are getting exactly what they voted for.

Well, a lot of them are poorly educated for starters, and insanely propagandized. They've been the singular target for Republican messaging for decades now, and as you state, they've voted for those people too who have in turn damaged their schools and pillaged their industries. And that's not even going into things like offshoring and cheap international goods that have obliterated small town America, or corporations like Walmart, which have done a fantastic job of pillaging middle America's markets out of existence.

And yes it's tremendously frustrating to talk to these people since they're seemingly ready to blame anything and everyone who isn't them, their ideology, and their own choices for the fact that their home is dying, but it's still their home, and it's still dying. And like, even if their children all do what you're telling them to do, that means millions upon millions of people about to immigrate to cities from these rural areas. So like, you gotta deal with them one way or another. They're not just going to Thanos-snap out of existence.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#234

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

This is what the Amish/Luddites would say.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#235
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has the last 70 years of productivity increases led to a reduction in weekly work hours? No. Some jobs will be automated away. Good thing. Braindead stuff that a machine can do should be done by a machine. Doesn't mean we'll all soon be just picking our noses. There will be other work to be done, and if unregulated capitalism has its say then it can easily lead to even more worker exploitation.

> Has the last 70 years of productivity increases led to a reduction in weekly work hours? Yes, it has led to a significant reduction in hours worked: https://ourworldindata.org/working-more-than-ever Of course, the effects aren't equally distributed across all countries. For example, annual work hours per worker have almost halved in Germany since 1950, but only seen a more modest decrease in the US. So political fa…

The 40-hour workweek was introduced in Germany in the mid-1960s. 60 years later, it's still standard. A few 39-, 38- or 37.5-hour weeks here and there, but even those are by and large 40-hour weeks.

The number of vacation week and public holidays has increased, which explains the majority of the difference in "annual work hours".

The 10x in productivity is in no way reflected by the number of work hours.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if I told you 10yrs ago that we'd have AI that can do math/code better than 99% of humans This not even remotely close to true. Like not even a little bit. I use Cursor and Gemini for work daily and I'd be hard pressed to think AI is a "better" programmer than any professional software engineer. Sure it makes writing code faster and more efficient, because you just click tab and three lines are written for you. It…

I realized today while coding with cursor that AI seems to operate exactly the way I intuit it does, which is it acts like a junior engineer who works by copying existing code but doesn’t understand why. For a lot of tasks that works great, I do this a lot as a senior engineer, but I know when not to. you can’t let it run wild, because it doesn’t know when not too.

> a junior engineer who works by copying existing code but doesn’t understand why

Given the amount of time I have spent fixing code written like this over the years it is not encouraging.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need more to maintain a house, drywaller, gardener, carpenter, painter. The most important robotic help though will be cleaner and nurse. As our population ages and shrinks home help will become scarce and we'll desperately need an alternative to take care of ourselves as we age.

Immigrants from countries whose populations aren't shrinking could fill that role.

Who will maintain their houses? Why would it be immigrants instead of an underclass of citizens already in the country?

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

There's a simple litmus test for these sort of nearish future dystopias - how long before you have an 'AI plumber' or an 'AI electrician'? I'm not just listing random skilled trades, but listing jobs that are extremely complex, 100% context sensitive in a way that just doesn't generalize well, requires a mixture of high dexterity and high strength, and a million other things. To say nothing of the numerous [oft extre…

The most likely future is that we start standardizing infrastructure and building in a different way that’s easy for robots to use. Kind of like how cars would suck if we didn’t have roads and Benjamin Franklin couldn’t have predicted power plants and wires to every home. Then people who can’t afford the new stuff will keep paying plumbers but there’s a slow path to get rid of them. The old stuff will always be around but much less important.

I expect new “robo friendly” roads will be the first example but of course homes could do the same.

Think like how the Catholic Church never disappeared but the rest of the world moved on around it. We will never get rid of context sensitive plumbing and electrical work but it just won’t really matter

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immigrants from countries whose populations aren't shrinking could fill that role.

Who will maintain their houses? Why would it be immigrants instead of an underclass of citizens already in the country?

What houses? In Canada we stick 5 of them in every basement with no path to ownership. They’re happy to share bedrooms because it’s better than where they came from. The “underclass” of today got in early enough to own land and will be the landed gentry of tomorrow

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive. The wealth gap was growing since 1980. Is the median person better today when the median person cannot afford a college education or a house? Both of those were easily afforded in the 80s. Also remember: the average job didn't require a college education back then either. College has become a gatekeeper due to its rising costs…

Why is “affording a house” the marker of a success? I would say just the opposite. Owning a home decreases mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are. That being said, the home ownership rate in the US is 65% and almost anyone who wants to go to college can via loans and scholarships. Only around 40% of people in the US have a college education. But that doesn’t mean that the other 60% are homeless and st…

> mobility and the ability to move to where the jobs are.

This is a sign of low class status and lack of success. Rich people change the world to fit their needs. Poor people change themselves to fit the world. Leaving your entire family and social network behind for work is extremely middle class behaviour

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