You're not wrong. And yet he's polling well. And as long as people poll surface level questions like "do you like that he's cutting things?" he gets general support. Drill into specific topics item by item and it's a bleaker picture however. But that's how these things always go, like the ACA for instance.
He's still in the honeymoon period for approval ratings. Even given that, he's barely above water.
A honeymoon with 40's approval ratings in a then "good" economy says a lot in and of itself. Wonder if he'll set the global record this time by the time he leaves office. He somehow just missed bottom 5 in his first term
Remember, this is the president that won largely because of people's dissatisfaction with inflation, and his promises to "fix" the economy. Instead, he's decided to wage a pointless trade war that nobody asked for, and came out yesterday essentially saying he's totally okay with a recession coming out of it. The only thing more absurd is the fact that some people didn't see this coming. He signalled everything that h…
This analysis is lacking. People didn't vote for Trump because they analyzed his proposed economic policies and decided they would improve their situation. Almost nobody votes like that. There's general financial anxiety in the US, and he promised to fix it. What methods he proposed using are almost irrelevant, it's the rhetoric around them that sways voters. The narrative is now one of temporary hardship to excise t…
Of course That is how they vote. But their analysis isn't on the impact of tarriffs nor the economic strength of trade.
It's on egg prices and job market vibes and other everyday sorts of stuff. He promised he'd fix those. And it seems the center seokg voters are facing a lot of regret on that right now.
I mean, sure, if their source of information about her policies is attack ads ran by her opponent, that says more about the media they watch than it does about her. She doesn't control the press, if it won't cover the policies, what is she to do?
> that says more about the media they watch than it does about her According to my family member who notices such things (and is not MAGA or conservative), Trump controlled most streaming ads/narratives, while Harris had more of the broadcast ads/narratives, especially for sports (minimally political). I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss this as a media silo issue.
That sounds exactly like a media solo issue. Except the fact that it's billionaire new media choose who gets to see what ad. I would be surpsied if part of big tech's choices on ads wasn't based on the leaders' own preferences. Especially in swing states
My guess is that his supporters are so entrenched in their position that they won't care. Trump channelled their anger at how broken the American Dream has become, and they're probably OK getting personally singed if it means the whole thing burns down. However, it will likely be a rude awakening on the other side for them, especially if they find that some of their entitlements were cut (just as they come to need th…
> they find that some of their entitlements were cut (just as they come to need them most), and meanwhile yet again the rich and powerful not only are fine but the gap continues to widen at an even faster rate I’m honestly not seeing a way out of this for the die-hard MAGAs other than letting them age out. The problem is less that idiot 20% and more the Obama-Trump crossover voters. They’re the ones we should fight t…
Depends on why the crossed over.
I argue a lot of D's are simply Disempowerd. Getting those people back needs a candidate actually fighting for their demands and not just keeping in tow with the establishment
With how quickly the tariffs are added and removed, if I were an entrepreneur I’d find it difficult to lean in on a risky investment that may be undermined or undercut by the eventual and sudden removal of tariffs. I’m curious how this plays out in reality.
so far, Apple says they'll invest $500bn to bring their supply chain stateside, Softbank $100bn-$200bn, "Stargate" Group is supposed to be $65bn and that was just to curry favor as well as get in front of the tariff plans we'll see if they follow through, but those count as American entrepreneurs too if there are disruptions on smaller scales, some people will take the risk, and there will be winners and losers as wi…
It’s definitely interesting. I’m starting to think of the potential upside there and it’s going to be a relatively long road to move all that back here.
There’s an issue of raw materials supply as well and I’m curious if this is more of an “assembled in USA” type of thing or the whole chain will move. Time will tell.
> One person called half of Trump supporters that, referring to an undeniably real subset of that voting block that is racist/homophopic/xenophobic. According to whose value system? By the standards of your typical knowledge worker, almost everyone in my home country of Bangladesh is “racist/homophobic/sexist.” But why do they get to decide? You can bet that in your hypothetical, the cognitive elite will use their le…
> And they’ll never be allowed to be full participants in a democracy This is what the elites often assert before the mobs with guillotines, torches, pitchforks, etc come for them. Who gets to decide who is a participant? Ultimately it's the group that seizes power. You might think that a tiny group of despotic people can hold out against the overwhelming majority (South Africans sure tried, and some are still bitter…
You couldn't feasibly overthrow the elite, because they would control the machines that automated the production. South Africa actually illustrates the problem. Post-Apartheid, South Africa is basically two countries in one country: a largely white, industrialized country participating in the globalized and financialized economy, and a largely black developing-nation economy. The black south africans cannot expel the whites, because the latter would take with them almost all industrial and agricultural technology.
Depends on what cards one is holding. Getting half of what one wants and not being driven off a cliff can be preferable to smiling in moral smugness while the car arcs through the air.
Past behavior of this administration strongly predicts that your reward for kowtowing to its value-compromising demands... Is becoming the target of further value-compromising demands. It doesn't engage in positive-sum games.
It doesn't have to.
Strictly in terms of self-interest, sometimes compromise can be the optimal move.
> And they’ll never be allowed to be full participants in a democracy This is what the elites often assert before the mobs with guillotines, torches, pitchforks, etc come for them. Who gets to decide who is a participant? Ultimately it's the group that seizes power. You might think that a tiny group of despotic people can hold out against the overwhelming majority (South Africans sure tried, and some are still bitter…
You couldn't feasibly overthrow the elite, because they would control the machines that automated the production. South Africa actually illustrates the problem. Post-Apartheid, South Africa is basically two countries in one country: a largely white, industrialized country participating in the globalized and financialized economy, and a largely black developing-nation economy. The black south africans cannot expel the…
Past behavior of this administration strongly predicts that your reward for kowtowing to its value-compromising demands... Is becoming the target of further value-compromising demands. It doesn't engage in positive-sum games.
It doesn't have to. Strictly in terms of self-interest, sometimes compromise can be the optimal move.
If they're willing to self-harm for the cause, then the optimal move is to grab the wheel and yank it yourself to change direction and stop the car from careening off the cliff.