Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked • Hacker News Board

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#231

Post by hnaccount_rng » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:01 PM UTC

Hamuko wrote: post #224

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #214

The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower. I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's…

The conclusion seems pretty shoddy as well, since it relies on a few years worth of data to indicate a permanent shift in purchasing habits, and those years include a global pandemic, supply chain shortages and high inflation/interest. Really the only conclusion I would make is that combustion-only has peaked, and that much is very clear if you go and shop for a new car. Everything is being hybridised.

I'm inclined to agree with the conclusion from _this_ data being a tad too early.

But, if one digs a bit into the data then one finds that EV sales in nearly all countries had double digit increases. The two major exceptions are Germany and Italy. But on the other hand the Chinese market both grew substantially and there it is more or less a policy goal to boost local manufactures and those are ~all electric. And if China is not going back to gas-powered cars then the conclusion is a pretty safe bet, isn't it?

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#232

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:03 PM UTC

HPsquared wrote: post #207

ehnto wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that. Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate. At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a singl…

Electric self-driving taxis are going to be big in the medium-term. Or some other personal transportation method. Static routes and stations are not really up to the job. (Edit: not that these necessarily need car parks, but they'll need to wait somewhere when they're not carrying passengers)

> Electric self-driving taxis are going to be big in the medium-term.

This claim has been made for years now and a number of big companies like Google, Uber and Tesla have tried to jump into this market, but does this hold up?

I vaguely recall a self driving taxi service being active in some areas, but how are they doing?

Anyway, static routes and stations work fine for big parts of e.g. the Netherlands, but you need a good structure of bus routes and transit hubs. It's a fact that it takes longer than driving for most trips though and IMO the cost should be a lot lower, but that's the tradeoff made.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#233

Post by datadeft » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:07 PM UTC

VladStanimir wrote: post #107

myroon5 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, order of magnitude more electric micromobility vehicles than electric cars: https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-...

The problem with electric cars is charging infrastructure in cites. An electric bike or scooter can be brought indoors to charge.

> An electric bike or scooter can be brought indoors to charge.

Just look at this:

https://www.newsflare.com/video/704902/e-bike-battery-explod...

There are a lot of videos like this that shows the devastation of charging electric bikes or scooters indoor.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#234

Post by te_chris » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:08 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #226

elric wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I've seen, scooters and electric bikes aren't competition for cars, but for public transport.

Also light transport works great for for single people and dinks. Once people have kids they likely would want a car. By that time you don’t want to do daily shopping and you don’t want to carry four bags of groceries on a bus, plus on average a couple of times a month you need to transport bulkier items -yes you could rent a car for that each time, but people like ad hoc convenience, they don’t like planning things…

Not at all. Transport is great for families. Get your groceries delivered.

Cargo bikes exist as well.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#235

Post by lifestyleguru » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:10 PM UTC

Deprogrammer9 wrote: post #41

This things is amazing. https://www.bmwmotorcycles.com/en/models/urban_mobility/ce04...

Looks like a scooter but twice as heavy and with a mobile app. The only reason you'll see it on the streets are subsidies from public "green" funds.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#236

Post by mc32 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:12 PM UTC

te_chris wrote: post #234

mc32 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also light transport works great for for single people and dinks. Once people have kids they likely would want a car. By that time you don’t want to do daily shopping and you don’t want to carry four bags of groceries on a bus, plus on average a couple of times a month you need to transport bulkier items -yes you could rent a car for that each time, but people like ad hoc convenience, they don’t like planning things…

Not at all. Transport is great for families. Get your groceries delivered. Cargo bikes exist as well.

Delivered groceries are more expensive, not everyone can afford the prices plus the expected tip. A beater auto is affordable for most families.

People with dough won’t mind the extra expense, that’s usually a given.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#237

Post by tim333 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:14 PM UTC

rgblambda wrote: post #153

tim333 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The phone snatchers at least in the UK prefer souped up e-bikes rather than e-motorcycles. That thing the police would stop you if you didn't have a number plate.

Also cycling on the pavement where the snatching occurs is more acceptable on an e-bike, even though it's illegal even for a pedal bike. The police should still be stopping those bikes as they don't meet the legal definition of EAPC and so require a licence plate. Not that they do.

The have been stopping them and crushing the bikes although it's patchy https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89yw3wzl9no

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#238

Post by HPsquared » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:20 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #232

HPsquared wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric self-driving taxis are going to be big in the medium-term. Or some other personal transportation method. Static routes and stations are not really up to the job. (Edit: not that these necessarily need car parks, but they'll need to wait somewhere when they're not carrying passengers)

> Electric self-driving taxis are going to be big in the medium-term. This claim has been made for years now and a number of big companies like Google, Uber and Tesla have tried to jump into this market, but does this hold up? I vaguely recall a self driving taxi service being active in some areas, but how are they doing? Anyway, static routes and stations work fine for big parts of e.g. the Netherlands, but you need…

In my regional UK city, most of my trips look something like: X minutes by car/taxi (although driving you need to park, and taxi you need to wait), 1.5-2X to cycle (direct but need to contend with hills, rain and much increased risk), and 2-4X to use public transport (total time, door-to-door, need to rush to get the thing and wait outdoors for 5-10 minutes) (2X being the ideal case of home to centre, 4X for point-to-point two places outside the centre).

It's not even remotely competitive, and for that reason private cars are used for some ridiculously high proportion of journeys (90% of passenger miles overall).

In the UK only 17% of commuters use public transport, and 5% use "other" including bicycle/motorcycle/taxi.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#239

Post by ghaff » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:25 PM UTC

tonyhart7 wrote: post #192

ehnto wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that. Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate. At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a singl…

"Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that." Yeah its sounds great until you need mass transport system to support this idea which means only mega cities can benefit the most when tier 2 and tier 3 cities is having a hard time investment see: japan

Tokyo has a great subway system (for the most part--there are locations that aren't that well served) and there's good train service between many moderate-sized cities in Japan. But my experience is that, once you get to a city outside of Tokyo, the public transportation options aren't great.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#240

Post by ghaff » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:27 PM UTC

pjmlp wrote: post #213

PatronBernard wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Densely populated areas shouldn't have surface-area-inefficient cars as a main mode of transportation at all! Good public transport and the other 2-wheel modes should do just fine, but of course those aren't as profitable.

Good public transport is the key part and I can tell that in most European cities, not the capitals that everyone visits when they say they have been on country XYZ only hanging on the city center without even venturing into the suburbs, that is quite far from where they were supposed to be.

A lot of people look at Europe through the lens of the tourist areas of large cities. As someone who has spent a lot of time in the UK countryside and smaller towns, there is absolutely not a good public transit system even if there might be a few buses during the day.

Heck. I arrived by train from London to a town where I found the busses to the start of my walk were basically non-existent. Fortunately a taxi pulled up as I was trying to find a taxi service by cell as the train station didn't have any staff.