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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#231

Post by darkerside »

remixff2400 wrote: post #199
bballfan133 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really dislike this talking point. 1) That people who don't enjoy what they see are just unsophisticated. 2) That today's basketball is better because players have more skill and plays are more complex. I don't think that's the point at all. I've personally found it hard to sit through games this season - it feels like there isn't much at stake. What happens in the first quarter is a mere blip. And even in the four…

1. Where basketball misses there is that the "get the ball in the hoop" portion of that is _really_ boring now. I'd wager that people don't want to be concerned with some 3rd man setting a screen on the other side of the court allowing some 2nd man to set up behind a pick from a 4th man to get passed the ball from the 1st man to shoot a three... and then clank it off the rim. Then, rinse and repeat on both ends. The…

So missed shots are boring? I think most people would go the opposite way, wanting defenses to be more empowered and 3 pointers harder to make.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#232

Post by darkerside »

kenjackson wrote: post #164
pgm8705 wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would be enough to simply move the 3 point line back a couple feet AND have it follow its natural arc out of bounds, thus eliminating the shorter and easier corner 3 shot.

I’d rather defenses covered it better to give up more 2s in the paint. If we make it too far out it no longer spaces the floor and then we’re back to a game in the paint.

This is my preferred answer. Bring back physicality into the sport, especially on defense. There are moving screens on every play, and yet a defender can stand and get jumped into resulting in free throws.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#233

Post by darkerside »

aaplok wrote: post #171
gfunk911 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction. My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

I don't watch basketball, so I am speculating, but isn't this a case where defence hasn't yet adapted to the new attacking strategies? Wouldn't you expect that in a few years teams will be better at defending against 3s, reducing their expected value and therefore swinging the pendulum back towards more 2s? The Nash equilibrium should be that the expected values of 2s and 3s are equal. If you're off, you would expect…

This is a great question from a novice basketball watcher. What's with the downvotes?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#234

Post by darkerside »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #96
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

I think a big reason we don't have competitive finals is generally not having a harder salary cap and allowing max for contracts. If a player really is that good they should take up 50% of the cap and to balance it out have terrible other players. Anything else allows stacking value above cost and leading to team imbalances.

You still get that, players take less to win.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#235

Post by darkerside »

bdangubic wrote: post #131
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

80's and 90's also played 82 games... the fact that today's players are soft and whiny is nba's fault

The game is so much faster in terms of pace, and in terms of players being bigger and faster. That's the real reason for injury caution.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#236

Post by darkerside »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #194
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

The real problem is the amount of ads and game breaks. Everyone knows basketball is about the fourth quarter so the league has backloaded ads. Now it routinely takes 20-30 minutes to get through the last 6 minutes of a game. Completely breaks the flow of the best part of the show. Second problem is that with the play in 2/3 of the teams make the post season so there is little incentive to try for a top seed anymore.

This is an interesting point. All the breaks also make it so that players get less tired from a cardio standpoint, are able to further exhaust their muscles, and leads to more injury.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#237

Post by relaxing »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #207
relaxing wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And help defense exists to counter it. Meanwhile Denver won it all with some of the lowest volume of threes in the league.

You can try to counter it but go ahead and look at the highest volume 3 point shooting teams and compare them to the highest volume layup teams. Part of it is that theyre following analytics so theyre looking for layups more than other teams but gravity is very real and does make it easier to get layups when you shoot more 3s.

I know spacing the floor is real. The point is it’s not the only winning strategy and basketball is in no way “solved”.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#238

Post by darkerside »

SoftTalker wrote: post #211
wsatb wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are talking strictly about the NBA. College players are much more inconsistent because they're younger and less experienced. There are not many 20 year olds you can depend on to consistently make 3s. There are also a lot more teams which spreads the talent pool around. In my opinion, it amounts to a more exciting product to watch, even if it's less polished.

There probably are as many 20 year old college kids who can hit threes as there are pros who can hit them, but they are spread over many more teams. Unless you have a correctable mechanical problem with your shot, the ability to hit a three point basket is more of a natural ability than a learned skill. Those guys just have incredibly good hand-eye coordination.

3 point line is also closer in college

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#239

Post by lapcat »

darkerside wrote: post #230
lapcat wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves Your average viewer isn't tuning in to watch a chess match. You'll notice that professional chess doesn't have the same viewership as basketball. Regardless of the mathematical strategies, it sucks to watch a bunch of three pointers getting missed. The NBA team average is 36% on 38 attempts per game. Thus, in an average game, t…

Draymond Green is the Joe Rogan of the NBA. He's just optimizing for engagement and controversy. If it were truly as you say, those players would get pulled. Logo 3s are rare. And when someone heats up and hits multiple consecutive, it's anything but boring.

> Draymond Green is the Joe Rogan of the NBA.

I personally dislike Green because of his on-the-court antics, but I don't think that comparison is fair. Rogan is a know-nothing meathead unqualified to challenge his guests, whereas Green is a veteran, elite, champion NBA player. His opinions, however controversial, have some basis in experience, expertise, and reality.

> If it were truly as you say, those players would get pulled.

Why? The mathematics are still on their side, due to the percentages and the value of the 3. I never claimed that jacking up 3's is irrational; I'm just claiming that it's ugly.

If I were commissioner, I'd abolish the 3. Then they can shoot logo 2's if they want. ;-)

> Logo 3s are rare.

Tell that to Dame.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#240

Post by rurban »

> The Golden State Warriors, led by Stephen Curry, probably jump-started this trend with 34 three-pointer attempts per game in the 2018-19 season, twice as much from five years ago.

No, it was Daryll Morey's Houston Rockets around the James Harden era, who started advanced analytics player selection and shot selection. They started with enormous video analytics and Morey runs the yearly Analytics Sports Conference.

Moreyball was way more advanced than Moneyball. You go by the three and die by the three. He still didn't win a championship though.

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