231–240 of 374 posts
Is there a "sweet spot" for asteroids where they don't impact the earth, but come within like 20 meters of it? Like is it possible for an asteroid to give a city a "buzz cut" and then continue on into outer space?
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An 8 MT impact on the Moon is what the Moon calls "Tuesday." It has dealt with far, far worse. The impact probably wouldn't even be visible with the naked eye unless it hits a part of the Moon not then illuminated by the Sun -- in which case one might see a brief flash of light.
Because I was curious and had no idea about the relative size of meteors that hit the moon, the one that hit the moon in 2013 and was captured by Spanish astronomers was traveling at 65k KPH and weighed about 400kg. That had an impact energy of 15 tons of TNT ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=perqv4qByaI&t=1s ) Safe to say, an 8 megaton impact from one that weighs 220,000,000kg would be a bit more substantial! Appare…
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Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).
I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?
- "Since we saw it so briefly, our knowledge of its orbit is not that great"
- "[for example, in 2016 the data shows] a large chunk of sky where it could have been, and [the object is quite small."
- "Our knowledge of the diameter of this object is a bit fuzzy, because of surface reflectivity,"
So is anyone working on increasing those odds?
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Unless it lands in the ocean in which case tidal waves, and if on land, probably an earthquake/shockwave.
A comparable ocean impact would be the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, which was about 3x more energetic.
I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…
> if it misses the Earth in 2032, it could hit the moon. Oh, that's not so ba--- Wait, isn't that what happens in Seveneves?
As others have noted, an 8 MT impactor on the Moon would be a quite minor event. It would likely be visible to terrestrial observers (if on the near-side) and leave a visible crater. Might generate ejecta which itself could enter the Earth's atmosphere over time, though likely with little effect on the ground.
https://starwalk.space/en/news/should-you-worry-about-an-ast...
Working link: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20Y... 8.1 megatons of kinetic energy. According to the Torino rating, only risk of “localized destruction” (less than “regional devastation”): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html
2032 Mayan prophecy + 2024 YR4 = prime fuel for internet-born doomsday cults. "The final katun in the sequence that must happen before the new cycle of the katuns begins again is 13 Ahau. This starts in 2032 and ends in 2052. It is the time from 2032 to 2052, that great earth changes may take place. The translation from the codices about 13 Ahau that starts in 2032 is ‘Famine, plagues of locusts, and loss of rulers.…
" This is a time of total collapse where everything is lost. It is the time of the judgment of God. There will be epidemics and plagues and then famine. Governments will be lost to foreigners and wise men and prophets will be lost.‘"